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Traderman123, you stated - "Sadly , I stick to my view that shareholders will be lifted out circa 6p". It would be interesting to see how you derive that estimate? As at 13 Sept the half yearly financial update to June stated - "Total assets at 30 June were £39.227 million (£32.719 million in 2015) and liabilities were £28.456 million (£25.219 million in 2015). Cash at 30 June was £0.108 million. After the period end, a further £2.0 million was raised through a share issue". - In regards to your 6p assumption, a quick fag packet calculation - £39.227 million assets - £28.456 million liabilities = £10.771million Thus £10.771million/478,739,580 shares = 2.24p/share residual asset value. Your 6p - 2.24p = 3.76p which is thus the valuation you place on the resource itself. Given that the resource estimate is calculated conservatively at a "base case flat real" -10% discount @ $1.5billion (i.e. £1.22billion) Thus your residual 3.76p resource estimate suggests it would be valued at £18million. so £18million/£1.22billion x 100 = 1.47% of the in-ground value. That suggests a discount of 98.53% be afforded to a prospective buyer if my calculation based on your 6p is correct? We can speculate as much as we like & value is what a buyer would pay.... but I certainly would not be doing business with you any time soon and fortunately neither will the company! Please correct my very basic short cut calculation if there is an error. Care to quantify your 6p assumptions Traderman123???
Jaf, very valid questioning & won't tell you that you're wrong. Considering thus far II's that have filed Form 8.3 holdings indicates having held steadily and in the case of L&G added in the past few days, their reputations/bonuses are measured in terms of growth performance and the risk of losing clientele business, it seems rather inconceivable that they will simply stand by & observe total decay of their investment? In that respect, I'll refer & repost my thoughts from 16:38 below: - The update stated "DiamondCorp announced that the Company was in accelerated discussions with certain of the Company's shareholders and other third parties to address its immediate funding requirements in order to continue trading as a going concern. These discussions are at an advanced stage and, whilst no assurances can be given as to successful resolution to these discussions, the Company anticipates updating shareholders in the near term". - What we know for certain is that the initial 3rd party with whom the company was discussing a CB facility GBP500K withdrew as a result of the adverse share price movement. They further advised that the company is also in accelerated discussions with certain shareholders and other 3rd parties to secure those short term requirements. It simply does not make any sense that those select "certain shareholders" would jeopardise their investment through outright refusal? What does make sense is that those "select shareholders" likely suggested/stipulated the BoD's also explore all other options incl. mergers or sale to achieve early value as a viable alternative for shareholders. So far it's pretty clear that those II's that have filed required Form 8.3 to date have maintained their positions thus I cannot see an outright refusal to stump up a dismal 500K in the short term at the risk of losing their investment?
Traderman123 you stated - "Sadly , I stick to my view that shareholders will be lifted out circa 6p". It would be interesting to see how you derive that estimate? As at 13 Sept the half yearly financial update to June stated - "Total assets at 30 June were £39.227 million (£32.719 million in 2015) and liabilities were £28.456 million (£25.219 million in 2015). Cash at 30 June was £0.108 million. After the period end, a further £2.0 million was raised through a share issue". - In regards to your 6p assumption, a quick fag packet calculation - £39.227 million assets - £28.456 million liabilities = £10.771million Thus £10.771million/478,739,580 shares = 2.24p/share residual asset value. Your 6p - 2.24p = 3.76p which is thus the valuation you place on the resource itself. Given that the resource estimate is calculated conservatively at a "base case flat real" -10% discount @ $1.5billion (i.e. £1.22billion) Thus your residual 3.76p resource estimate suggests it would be valued at £18million. so £18million/£1.22billion x 100 = 1.47% of the in-ground value. That suggests a discount of 98.53% be afforded to a prospective buyer if my calculation based on your 6p is correct? We can speculate as much as we like & value is what a buyer would pay.... but I certainly would not be doing business with you any time soon and fortunately neither will the company! Please correct my very basic short cut calculation if there is an error.
KNIGELK, thanks your reasoning is understood. I disagree though with your assumption that the company "has no choice" because it requires both short & medium term funding. The update stated "DiamondCorp announced that the Company was in accelerated discussions with certain of the Company's shareholders and other third parties to address its immediate funding requirements in order to continue trading as a going concern. These discussions are at an advanced stage and, whilst no assurances can be given as to successful resolution to these discussions, the Company anticipates updating shareholders in the near term. What we know for certain is that the initial 3rd party with whom the company was discussing a CB facility GBP500K withdrew as a result of the adverse share price movement. They further advised that the company is also in accelerated discussions with certain shareholders and other 3rd parties to secure those short term requirements. It simply does not make any sense that those select "certain shareholders" would jeopardise their investment through outright refusal? What does make sense is that those "select shareholders" likely suggested/stipulated the BoD's also explore all other options incl. mergers or sale to achieve early value as a viable alternative for shareholders. So far it's pretty clear that those II's that have filed required Form 8.3 to date have maintained their positions thus I cannot see an outright refusal to stump up a dismal 500K in the short term at the risk of losing their investment?
Cheers thanks.
Hi TonyB, reading the additive to short term funding talks in the update - "Following that announcement, and in response to initial expressions of interest from potential acquirers who are credible participants in the Company's sector, the Board is of the view that the Company "should", in parallel to its discussions to secure additional funding, conduct a wider strategic review to explore additional opportunities including a corporate transaction such as a merger with or offer for the Group by a third party or a sale of the Group's businesses. The Board therefore intends to pursue any such possible alternatives to ensure the best outcome for its shareholders". - I've placed "should" above in inverted commas to indicate it's significance in the context. It seems clear that BoD's have decided to open all avenues after initial expressions of interest from credible sector participants? I agree that this decision is separate from short term funding and the BoD's feels it's prudent to (rather than forced) to explore any or all options to ensure the best outcome for shareholders. To me that indicates that those "initial expressions of interest from potential acquirers" do not meet the BoD's minimum valuation estimates. The BoD's have always indicated that they would consider the right offer should it arise and EW touted NPV as lower limit criteria for any such consideration. That of course was in the past under different circumstances but [their] hand does not seem to be forced into accepting less at this stage and they simply consider it prudent to open the legal door in compliance with the Take Over Code thus any solicitation received by or initiated by DCP henceforth must fall within the confidential framework of the code with certain dispensations. The short funding update will arrive at any time it's been secured and has nothing to do with the 28 day rule as I view it? Your view on this is most welcome!
Feel the tension in the air. No one's going to sneak out a quiet one during this silence without being caught. Lol.
DappaT, not at all insinuating you panic sold but saw the stress resonate from your posts yesterday as they came across a bit frantic which is why I gave you the link to read as it may help in times such as these when the decisions we make based on fears rather than fact can have a lasting adverse effect. Many of us have gone through the same turbulence as yourself though each has his/her own unique additive stresses and I completely sympathise & understand. I just wanted you to note the importance of clarity & decision making during tough times. Having held, last weeks erratic panic (which is exactly what it was) this is in reversal so a positive trend/indication for you/us though the game has changed significantly due to chain of events. I wish I could give you assurance of the corporate activity we are in at the moment but I can't. The resource itself is solid and that's always been my focus and strength to ensure the economics of the project and that they (BoD's) have followed the correct path to best resource economics. The current trend reversal confirms the solidity of the resource & project economics though questions remain open on the corporate front. Here I'm afraid I can't offer any assurances but as I stated last night; We are all mere mushrooms in terms of the corporate activity but there are signs we can use - L&G having sold down 18-24months ago have steadily increased over the past year to July and have done so again within the past few days re Form 8.3 and that is as close to inside information as we'll get for the moment. ATB
Stardelta, you're on the right board if you have GBP500K lying around looking for a good home? Lol.
Alligan, I have indeed (Last Friday) but he won't reply as there's much at stake but as mentioned, I am sure he's received many support emails as well as many complaints in recent days/weeks. Personally, I am getting a feeling of a merger that will see both parties much stronger? One with a little extra cash and the other with a 25year LOM and +50% commencing margin that's fully developed and simply short a few pennies at this late stage..... Time will tell?
Jaf & Banksman, I emailed PL last Friday without any expectations just to reiterate my unwavering support as a long term holder as many others did. I asked no questions, just offered shareholder financial support if required. I did not expect nor receive a reply due to the corporate actions. PL won't reply to any of us due to the corporate actions currently in play for obvious rules/reasons! I am sure though that he has read and is very aware of long termers willingness to support if required. Banksman, no offence taken & if you also held through the "PANIC" (can't make a mule look prettier by changing it's name) which is exactly what this was/is, then you deserve a few Vodka's. I promised RoccB that I'd bring a bottle of "Bulliet" Bourbon to S.A during my joint business/vacation trip 1st Nov. It's purely to take the edge & not celebratory as that would be premature! Just pay heed to the fact that L&G have upped their stake in the past few days as that's pi's best insider information available to date!
I find L&G form 8.3 declaration particularly interesting and the "old boys/girls" club here would too? Around 18 - 24 months ago they sold off a rather large chunk of their initial holdings. Last year they added a chunk during the funding and rights issue (Nov 2015 - 13.4M) and held +-15.6M shares by Jan 2016 increasing to 17.53M through July 2016 and holding that same quantity stable until recently. They increased that position likely in the last few days to current 18.86M shares (past few days) re the Form 8.3 The interesting bit is that L&G were the most active II in terms of decreasing exposure previously swinging that to increasing substantially through 2015/2016 and likely even more the past few days. That should tell us long termers quite a lot in terms of sentiment and the future direction this is headed & this move is quite likely the best insider information us "mushrooms" could hope for.
Fundamental..., Seems the spread tightened heavily from earlier (20%) and likely many that exited and are reasonable familiar, are scrambling to re-enter along with new investors and the trader groups. Perhaps tomorrow will provide an opportunity & hope you've done your homework and understand the corporate risk as well as the remaining challenges at Lace. ATB
Einvestein, your advice is duly noted Sir & after last week I'm getting close to having to comply and good to see that Jaf1948 also held his nerve. It hasn't been a walk in the park and there is still much to accomplish. ATB
I will email you this evening as I'm taking my girls out to dinner shortly mate.
DappaT, fear based decisions most often lead to regret. While I most sincerely feel the pains of those that sold & my heart goes out to them (incl. friends) , it has also taken much courage and conviction from those few that held and strengthened their positions during a stressful period. http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2015/12/make-fear-decisions-growth-decision/ I don't know what your position is here but crying foul at this time is as premature as those that claimed Lace was dead last week.
SP Angel are either behind the curve or they've massacred sellers and only reiterating a "buy" recommendation after they've gorged themselves. Diamondcorp Plc (DCP) Receives Buy Rating from SP Angel on Oct 18th, 2016 - "Out of 5 analysts covering Diamondcorp PLC (LON:DCP), 3 rate it a “Buy”, 0 “Sell”, while 2 “Hold”. This means 60% are positive. GBX 23 is the highest target while GBX 11.50 is the lowest. The GBX 15.65 average target is 401.60% above today’s (GBX 3.12) stock price". -
Hi CRB14 & bluebottle_uk, good to see you hung on. A fact that eludes many uninitiated in the diamond sector is that a simple valuation doesn't exist unlike other commodities? Long life diamond mines are dwindling with age and there simply haven't been any new major pipes discovered in the past 2 decades. The 'Bunder" project in India, hailed as the only recent likely long life pipe has been canned by Rio Tinto after spending around $ half a billion. Snap Lake (DeBeers) flooded & put on care. Dwindling cheap production from large open pit mines are all gradually (at high Capex) having to convert to underground mines to enhance and extend production life. Feeble attempts to value Lace in terms of general commodities simply doesn't equate as the dynamics in the relatively small diamond sector are a very different kettle of fish. Lace has a 25year plus resource at a conservative "flat real base estimate" $164/carat. I think if any of the stated negotiations progress, it will be a mutually beneficial merger that will meet II's & large shareholder's vote. In any event the benefit is that PL & BoD's will have to satisfy these large shareholders to gain their vote in any transaction and the going price/valuation would have to exceed those much higher investment averages than current share price valuation including the BoD's much higher holding averages. Fact is diamonds are a dwindling resource and end of 2018/19 is considered the point of inflection when global demand most likely overtakes dwindling global production. I'd say the basket of diamond sector miners not interested in Lace are a small minority within the sector as most operators look to shore up rapidly declining reserves and even more so as very few diamond mines operate remotely close to a 50% operating margin. I've held & bought additional 500K last week on both Aim & JSE (tough decision on fleeing sentiment at the time) but only based on my research efforts & deductions in respect of the Lace resource. ATB
Sheesh, let me restate the previous - Zero % interest rates in EU, UK, & US etc. forces capital into emerging markets for growth as there is little to be gained elsewhere! GBP500K will find a lucrative home for a lucky venture capitalist shortly me thinks. Truly a "no brainier" lol.