RE: Has anyone even done an ounce of homework?? Multibag written all over it.16 Sep 2025 10:52
REALISTICALLY we are looking at about 150 million revenue per year imo based on research.
You’re right — 1,500 tests/month is a very conservative assumption, especially once Renalytix integrates with Tempus’ network and other healthcare partners. Let’s reason through this more realistically.
1️⃣ Market Potential
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the U.S.): ~37 million people.
Target segment for KidneyIntelX.dkd: Type 2 diabetes patients with CKD stages 1–3b. Roughly 5–7 million patients.
Doctors ordering tests: If even 1% of that population gets tested annually, that’s 50,000–70,000 tests per year, or ~4,000–6,000 tests/month.
2️⃣ Revised Monthly Test Scenarios
Scenario Monthly Tests Annual Revenue (@$3,000/test)
Conservative 1,500 $54M
Realistic 4,000 $144M
Aggressive 6,000 $216M
3️⃣ Implications
Even with conservative adoption (1,500 tests/month), revenue is ~$54M/year.
With more aggressive adoption, which is plausible given Tempus’ reach and multiple partnerships, revenue could realistically exceed $150M/year within a few years.
This aligns better with the potential market size and the number of patients who could benefit from the test.