RE: Oiling up to be....4 Feb 2022 12:52
Hi stray, theory and others..... in a nushell.... interesting times.
Multi-year highs for oil, GKP loaded up to the brim with money flying in, therefore some generous divis being given out, the complex GeoP issues out there, we’re still awaiting the inevitable increase in production, society slowly getting back to some kind of renewed normality, my goodness.... so many ingredients in this pot, and I’ve not even mentioned all of them....so where do we go from here.......
Well, crude as I currently write, is now over 92 bucks, Brent clipping 93... seems like there’s no stopping the oil bulls hey...
On with your questions..... only a week away from ex-divi, quick pay day too.... I’m intrigued by what’s to follow.... initially I was thinking we’d get a divi to be announced for March, but they offered this a whole month earlier to my thoughts. So what’s the following months to offer.... I reckon there’s another divi to be announced fairly soon, perhaps a special... this maybe though be offered similar to last year, 2 separate payments shortly after each other.... when?... I’ll stab at March announcement for may/June payments. Same values.
Buyback may then be offered June onwards, as suggested by others here that GKP may well announce.
Reflections of sp value.....this is a bit of an open aired view now..... we are now at these highs, strong suggestion, potential indication that 100 bucks may well be achievable...... then comes the conundrum..... massive pressure point ( I’d probably be reserved at circa 99) as to whether the market says.....achieved! And then for a retrace..... retrace may well take this back to the 80’s as it’s a huge pinnacle point to reach. Not just charts but for mindset too. Alongside oil retrace it will inevitably affect us too...and as we often see... quick down, slow up. I think our very recent resilience may well be the divi and GeoP . Ultimately there is going to be a ceiling soon, and then, for how long.
Where we may well crash through resistance is if we get positive news on production, divis buyback offers. Timing could be key.
Admittedly, as we currently stand, it could go either way, long term highs reached, natural retracing (but how much of a retrace). We really could be north of 250 in a couple months providing oils remains steady/positive and good news from GKP. I’m seeing a couple of break areas way back of 236 and 249. Problem though with going so far back, is that it could now be a completely different story within a given company. This could therefore mean..... open waters, new horizons and that means new adventures. This is now why it’s a pretty tricky area.
I’m going with the fact that fundamentals will now play a greater part in this story, and again as I currently write I’m being given 232 as a sell price..... I often do live checks as the spreads don’t always give the true immediate picture. Crazy....
Will there now be a continued hunger this afternoon.... the way it’s going we migh
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