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Trimmed dividend after deal completion and 5 years till production with execution risks are the reasons why market does not like it even though the long-term prospect is very good. People want everything like yesterday these days .... Also, Barclays selling is telling ...

Interesting, below 20p again. It does not seem like a massive sell off. Maybe somebody had enough of waiting for the sp to go higher faster... I guess the real value will be seen after the plant upgrade which is more than a year away. If divi 1.5p is maintained, we are over 7.5%.

BTW, re divi - will it be still capital return or they change the company structure so paying divi is more tax efficient? I believe paying regular divi would attract more buyers as stock scanners don't pick STCM as a decent divi payer.

Regarding the $70m uranium (or whatever price tag we attach to it if it ever crystalises ...)

If this happens after completion of the RTO, I assume, it will be part of the new enlarged company so effectively, the current AMG shareholders will have 3% of it as of any other current AMG asset. Am I correct?

Why the TR-1 was issued when the share increase was just within decimal point range, not crossing a % of any whole number mark?

I go for 114.14

Cheers

So far, it does not look like a market overreaction following the results yesterday.

The sp recovered just a bit this AM but drifting slowly down from 115p.

I expected much better recovery. Investors apparently don't believe short term outlook in Germany.

Time will tell.

Don't forget that government PSA takes a considerable chunk of money ... so cash will be growing slower but should be growing nevertheless.

I expected to see a PDMR Dealing RNS following the 400k (1%) purchase on Thursday. Well, I was wrong, somebody else is accumulating .... we are still just in the first month of Q2 so let's see where we are in a couple of months ...

"£8 and throwing off 50p in dividends in two years i believe…"

50p divi requires 57M GBP = 77M USD

The previous divi policy was 25% of free cash flow so 308M USD of free cash flow would be required ...

Is it realistic in two years? I would be very happy with 20-25p and sp 4-5 GBP.

But first, let's see whether divi will be re-introduced later this year. I hope it will be but no idea how much cash they allocate for that. Probably not much as money will be needed for further investments but I assume divi re-introduction is a statement the company wants to put out there.

Probably roll overs as explained recently ...

I can't answer your initial question about MM but I assume seeing mostly buys is due to the TR notifications suggesting that the seller is almost done and the SP around 0.6-0.7 is/was at the bottom so people loaded up - probably combined with anticipation of a positive news regarding the pending permit. If the permit lands, the sp should go higher and at that point no doubt there will be many sells as people buying around these levels will take profits. Time will tell.

Mentioning potential value here ...

Using another very rough and unquestionably not precise valuation method, just in situ value of gold (Kochang and Gubong only) multiplied by conservative $1900 POG and 3.5% "in situ coefficient" returns around $45M or 5p.

Obviously, 3.5% might be on the lower side as these are high grade and already existing mines but it still demonstrates how undervalued it is.

It's all down to getting the permit.

Non of the top holders from the management bailed out so I guess they genuinely believe they will get it ...

In this respect they are completely aligned with share holders

Re the thresholds to be reported, I believe in this case 3% and any additional 1% crossing does not apply as BMV is not UK based. For non-UK based companies, the thresholds are (from memory) something like 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 50%,75%.

To give them a bit of credit, at least they bothered to correct it...

Let's see when the promised Batangas progress news lands, obviously getting TMUP would be welcome surprise.

Not sure what else has changed comparing to the previous presentation, however, according to the shareholding table, SAU now holding only 75m shares.

Just very recently, the two rather strange TR-1 RNS stating SAU holding went from 150m to 140m and then to be cancelled going back to 150m....

The presentation is dated - April 2023 ... Did not just SAU submit a TR-1?

I don't think there was such volume of shares enabling them to sell 75m on open market, maybe a direct sale, anyway very strange.

@JonnD - I don't see issuing the 200m shares for SAU as dilution. We less than doubled the number of shares but doubled our assets/resources.
Re the latest news - not happy. I guess claiming the permit is imminent (next week) was a mistake but it suggests that they were probably misled by the authorities.
Personally, I expected to see the permit first and then announcing the financing.... which again points to false promises from the authorities. Did not expect this in South Korea but politicians are the same everywhere .....
I remember years back when waiting for the main extraction permit, it was also delayed a few months (comparing to expectations) so here we go again. However, they got it relatively quickly - comparing to other jurisdictions.

ID78 - I said that I don't want to speculate about the sp, I have no idea.
But why the sp 3 years ago was 4p for a relatively long period, even though the project was less advanced then it's now?
I guess, simply because of the expectation to progress the project towards production. It did not happen so the sp declined and negativity remains.
If the permit is granted, all the project metrics are better than 3 years ago.
Not saying the sp will go 4p but it should change current negativity as real work will finally start on site and the sp might respond positively. Any positive news flow re construction or Batangas project will be welcome too.
There are many miners/explores with far higher valuation which are much further away from production than BMV.

Is this week finally the time the Co and its shareholders have been waiting for for 3 years?
The money is ready to be deployed, all systems go once we get the final nod by getting the TMUP.
It's amazing that the sp is still under 2p. The sp was on average 4p from April 2020 to April 2021 with the PoG average 1850 (give or take).
What is different now?
- PoG is higher and looks it should not slide below 1850
- We have funds to execute the Proof of Concept
- No or very little share dilution in real terms (we roughly doubled number of shares but also doubled resources now owning 100%, before we shared it with SAU)
- Still committed BoD and insiders (7 of them participating on funding to keep lights on earlier this year, owning around 25% of shares
Clearly, 2 years of Covid with very strict S.Korea policy and the JV debacle taking over a year to sort out dented the sp,
however, the co is in much better position than it was when the sp was 4p.
There is no point to speculate where the sp should/will be but I like Monemaker's scenario just divi being worth 3.5p :)
Imagine what would be the sp in such case ... :)
Ok, let's get back to reality, wait for the news we expect and start the PoC.
Great opportunity, good luck all.

Well, when they announced in late 2022 that permits to be granted in early 2023, being a bit pessimistic, I thought hopefully by end of Q1. When they mentioned it a few weeks ago that it's imminent, I thought maybe my Q1 expectation might be correct. So to me, this week, next week or the following week - any of those is ok.
Originally, I expected announcing permits first and then the funding, however, doing it in the revered order suggests that they are very confident.
In the meantime gold is doing fine so, the project numbers (despite inflation) are getting better.
Great opportunity ...

Under normal circumstances (credible directors), I would wish that the first tranche was enough to plug the finance gap.
If the second tranche goes ahead, CIG will have significant control of the company.
If that meant getting rid of overpaid underdelivering directors and running the company effiecently (200k oz per year with a reasonably low ASIC) I would vote for it ....
However, I somehow suspect it's too good to be true ....

Muted response ....