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I can't answer your initial question about MM but I assume seeing mostly buys is due to the TR notifications suggesting that the seller is almost done and the SP around 0.6-0.7 is/was at the bottom so people loaded up - probably combined with anticipation of a positive news regarding the pending permit. If the permit lands, the sp should go higher and at that point no doubt there will be many sells as people buying around these levels will take profits. Time will tell.
Mentioning potential value here ...
Using another very rough and unquestionably not precise valuation method, just in situ value of gold (Kochang and Gubong only) multiplied by conservative $1900 POG and 3.5% "in situ coefficient" returns around $45M or 5p.
Obviously, 3.5% might be on the lower side as these are high grade and already existing mines but it still demonstrates how undervalued it is.
It's all down to getting the permit.
Non of the top holders from the management bailed out so I guess they genuinely believe they will get it ...
In this respect they are completely aligned with share holders
Re the thresholds to be reported, I believe in this case 3% and any additional 1% crossing does not apply as BMV is not UK based. For non-UK based companies, the thresholds are (from memory) something like 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 50%,75%.
To give them a bit of credit, at least they bothered to correct it...
Let's see when the promised Batangas progress news lands, obviously getting TMUP would be welcome surprise.
Not sure what else has changed comparing to the previous presentation, however, according to the shareholding table, SAU now holding only 75m shares.
Just very recently, the two rather strange TR-1 RNS stating SAU holding went from 150m to 140m and then to be cancelled going back to 150m....
The presentation is dated - April 2023 ... Did not just SAU submit a TR-1?
I don't think there was such volume of shares enabling them to sell 75m on open market, maybe a direct sale, anyway very strange.
@JonnD - I don't see issuing the 200m shares for SAU as dilution. We less than doubled the number of shares but doubled our assets/resources.
Re the latest news - not happy. I guess claiming the permit is imminent (next week) was a mistake but it suggests that they were probably misled by the authorities.
Personally, I expected to see the permit first and then announcing the financing.... which again points to false promises from the authorities. Did not expect this in South Korea but politicians are the same everywhere .....
I remember years back when waiting for the main extraction permit, it was also delayed a few months (comparing to expectations) so here we go again. However, they got it relatively quickly - comparing to other jurisdictions.
ID78 - I said that I don't want to speculate about the sp, I have no idea.
But why the sp 3 years ago was 4p for a relatively long period, even though the project was less advanced then it's now?
I guess, simply because of the expectation to progress the project towards production. It did not happen so the sp declined and negativity remains.
If the permit is granted, all the project metrics are better than 3 years ago.
Not saying the sp will go 4p but it should change current negativity as real work will finally start on site and the sp might respond positively. Any positive news flow re construction or Batangas project will be welcome too.
There are many miners/explores with far higher valuation which are much further away from production than BMV.
Is this week finally the time the Co and its shareholders have been waiting for for 3 years?
The money is ready to be deployed, all systems go once we get the final nod by getting the TMUP.
It's amazing that the sp is still under 2p. The sp was on average 4p from April 2020 to April 2021 with the PoG average 1850 (give or take).
What is different now?
- PoG is higher and looks it should not slide below 1850
- We have funds to execute the Proof of Concept
- No or very little share dilution in real terms (we roughly doubled number of shares but also doubled resources now owning 100%, before we shared it with SAU)
- Still committed BoD and insiders (7 of them participating on funding to keep lights on earlier this year, owning around 25% of shares
Clearly, 2 years of Covid with very strict S.Korea policy and the JV debacle taking over a year to sort out dented the sp,
however, the co is in much better position than it was when the sp was 4p.
There is no point to speculate where the sp should/will be but I like Monemaker's scenario just divi being worth 3.5p :)
Imagine what would be the sp in such case ... :)
Ok, let's get back to reality, wait for the news we expect and start the PoC.
Great opportunity, good luck all.
Well, when they announced in late 2022 that permits to be granted in early 2023, being a bit pessimistic, I thought hopefully by end of Q1. When they mentioned it a few weeks ago that it's imminent, I thought maybe my Q1 expectation might be correct. So to me, this week, next week or the following week - any of those is ok.
Originally, I expected announcing permits first and then the funding, however, doing it in the revered order suggests that they are very confident.
In the meantime gold is doing fine so, the project numbers (despite inflation) are getting better.
Great opportunity ...
Under normal circumstances (credible directors), I would wish that the first tranche was enough to plug the finance gap.
If the second tranche goes ahead, CIG will have significant control of the company.
If that meant getting rid of overpaid underdelivering directors and running the company effiecently (200k oz per year with a reasonably low ASIC) I would vote for it ....
However, I somehow suspect it's too good to be true ....
Yes, geat news. mured response ...
What is interestng that during the first 20 mins of trading, I was not able to buy or sell 250k shares.
Also currently there are only 4 trades printed. I just wonder whether we will see a large buy (or sell?) later on.
It looks mr market does not value this news much. I guess because most likely it's years away from real income.
Regarding the valuation, it would enteresting to apply the same rules they used when BMV was buying the other 50% of the JV from SAU.
B4G I'm sure you know the answer ... The recently updated MNRG webpage states Mr Spencer holds 6.82%, however the RNS figure says 7.3%. Why the difference? Is the difference held by related parties e.g. wife or family?
Ok, more questions:
1) any indication how EQT will be voting? I guess they are Rolf's friends but might be running out of patience.
2) Are there more sub 3% holders (0.5-3%) you know of that might be voting in Mr Spence favor?
Thank you.
@bunion - just a question.
Does the reply from Colin suggest that they plan to go to SK as well, presumably in April to kick off the construction?
If so then I would not expect it before Easter. That would test our patience a bit more .... But as long as an update (hopefully positive) is in April I'm fine with it.
A few relatively large buys reported as sells today ...
Yes, the recent strategic update by SAU is really not consistent when it comes to BMV shares. I read it as they wanted to say to their shareholders that their BMV shares could be converted to money if needed but on the other side believe that the BMV project will be a success and SAU will benefit from it eventually.
Given the current liquidity of BMV shares, I don't see SAU selling BMV shares on open market in reasonable quantities unless they are desperate to sell at any price. Selling directly to a 3rd party might be an option, the question is at what price. Surely they would want to wait until the project gets under way and then trying to sell.
In the meantime the waiting period continues .... It looks like the BoD gives updates only when there is any update available.
I can imagine that re-engaging or finding new contractors to start again after the SAU saga and the new prospectus release can be challenging and takes time.
They have a lot of skin in this project and their determination to acquire 100% of it should be a positive thing. However, for us PIs not knowing what is going on doesn't feel assuring .... Time will tell.
Not sure about selling.
The 100k trade at after 2pm was a buy (mine) so I assume other sells might be marked wrongly.
Volume is low, frustrated and inpatient holders taking loses and chasing better opportunities.