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Interesting snippet from the Riverfort update on their investment activities:
"Anglo African Oil & Gas plc, an AIM-listed independent oil and gas company with a current market capitalisation of around £12 million, by way of an investor sharing agreement, in order to part fund the Company's re-entry of the TLP-103C well at its Tilapia field in the Republic of the Congo with a view to producing oil from the Djeno horizon;
Also a long term shareholder with a holding well beyond normal risk appetite.
I'm sticking. Assuming if Joe come in then share price jumps say 40p and that attracts an executed bid. I will then sell enough shares for tax efficiency between CGT and income tax on a dividend (assuming Eco lives on) . If its a duster I still think that some of the remaining 4/5 drills will come in. Not waiting for Namibia though.
The Company will have gone to the Courts to ask to increase distributable reserves by £15m (a technical item, nothing to do with cash available). probably by reducing their share capital. So its an one-off amount, but as someone said earlier, to the extent the Calidus shares exceed £15m KRS will retain them on its books - and to extent won't be a pure manganese play - but may be materially so.
Assuming there are sufficient funds left from the recent raise to put TLP103 Mengo/R2 into production then a production of say 1000bpd gives 1000x$50 after expenses x 330 days /1.3 FX gives £12.5m per annum. That sounds sufficient, perhaps with some debt, to go for TLP104 within 12 months without an equity raise.
He has a history of saying more than he should but maybe has learnt to keep quiet (or the Nomad has told him after last week). They are clearly raising capital and need to, but not clear how urgent it is, how much is needed and what form it will take. Until it is definite what can he say?
Thanks strongman very helpful
how does it work
Do they drill right through the level, establish the oil show and then in parallel do the casing whilst getting the RNS authorised; and then drill on to Mengo?
how is it that the tweet appears to have a crossed out tweet below it dated today at 4.32pm?
Furthermore, if they don't succeed on Djeno on the first drill they will likely drill again. Assuming the COS of the first drill is not related to that of the second drill then the chance of one of the two drills being successful is 25% + (75%x25%) = 43.75%. Better and better.
belisce6
thanks, take the point that the COS is binary but with components that are judgemental and ultimately its a leap of faith. I note the finnCap report is slanted towards a pretty prudent view in terms of resources.
cheers loz - i picked up the 60% COS for Mengo from page 3 of the finncap report
A question for those more informed than I. The company informs us there is a 60/25% chance of success for Mengo/Djeno. That makes it sound binary - 500bopd or nothing. But surely there is an infinite range of outcomes from 0 to whatever? Such that a non commercial outcome COS is rather less than 40% for Mengo. Any thoughts?
lets hope they can find the chuck key
400 miles i reckon so best part of 2 days allowing for river travel and faffing
Barking - Harcnia is same as Harcourt, Kota Bakat has been there for days. Whilst the delay in getting to Gentil is probably down to local culture, what annoys me is the optimism that AAOG exhibit in their announcements - they are useless at managing expectations.
i don't get this idea that the share price should move directly as a function of the day's movement in copper price. The value of ATYM depends on the copper price over the next 10 years plus, so what should matter is expectations of where the copper price will be over that period. Given how small the free float is and the lack of institutional interest then the share price depends on the activity of people like us - and what do we know :)