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EGTP - agreed.
The lack of home use approval is also a major bar currently to HMG taking Avacta’s test - but, of course, an emergency home use approval could be given, or, in a few months, a full certificate could be gained anyway.
I think Myles and many others are right to suggest that Avacta should be, and actually is, sensibly focussing its principal sales effort abroad rather than via the wholly unreliable U.K. government.
Likely to produce a higher price per item in the process.
HMG have behaved abysmally to U.K. biotech.
Excellent, balanced and reassuring message.
Another helpful post, Energy - appreciated.
Superb effort, Agent - well done.
Detailed e-mail just sent to number 10 Downing Street pointing out the massive advantages of Avacta’s (world beating) LFT and of having a U.K. manufactured test, with huge capacity and security of supply, which avoids the horrors of nasopharyngeal swabbing and is the obvious choice for a fast, superbly accurate, easy to use Sovereign test.....
DonaldTrumpsWig - hear, hear...wise words!
Beinthelead/AviationGeek : I agree.
Clearly, right now .....ie before our superb global leading test is actually being sold (it certainly will be very soon) , the SP looks significantly undervalued - at least, for enthusiastic, well informed shareholders ....
It would be nothing short of tragic for a hostile takeover to come along in the near future. The sums that might be offered would, superficially, have the appearance of amounting to a superb return, contrasted with a SP hovering currently in the mid £2’s .
LTH’s with faith and confidence will surely want to wait and see what the oncology and licensing aspects of the business can conjure up (and maybe the Daewoong etc elements) before being asked to take what - if it turns up - might look like a fantastic offer but which, given the passage of what, say 3/4 years, could very well look like mere chicken feed.
Who knows what the future will bring.... things could go belly up or simply fall short of our eager expectations....BUT, they could equally go stupendously well and produce mind numbingly large and completely life changing share values for those who want to stick around for the longer term ride.
I’ve been here since, I think, 2013, having joined solely on the strength of the long term cancer treatment possibilities.
I truly do not want to sell up on the back only of Covid success - no matter how great an earner this side issue might be.
The really big money in Avacta is not to come from Covid diagnostics, no matter how fantastic they might prove to be - and I think they will be a major triumph - we need to remain mindful of the oncology and licensing possibilities and not sell ourselves short.
Risks? Yes, of course, really big risks - but ones worth taking in my own judgment.
I could very well be hopelessly misguided and wrong in this - but my gut tells me to hang in there and see this through....
All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc, etc
Hi Rebecca,
You describe my position exactly !
Wishing us all the best of good luck, whilst quietly chewing off the ends of my fingers!
Apologies if this has been listed already.
Avacta did well at the Cambridge Independent Science and Technology Awards on 15th April 2021.
In the category of Best Response to the Covid 19 epidemic, Avacta came second only to Cambridge University, gaining the title of Highly Recommended.
Just another recognition of Avacta’s great work - this time in national awards - there were over 100 selected nominees, so this was a seriously good outcome.
This can be found at www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/business/winners-of-Cambridge-independent-science-and-technology
Well done, Avacta.
Time soon for an even more significant announcement?
Richob - thanks, very helpful.
PL - thanks for this.
I try to follow what’s happening with Daewoong but always struggle to work out if their trials etc involve Affimers.
Are these trials wholly separate from the joint venture we have with them?
Sorry to be a bit thick - but it seems a bit opaque when you try to check it!
Exciting times, regardless!
‘Around the end of Q1’ - a best estimate by Sir Al given in good faith.
That ‘around’ deadline has not yet expired. It won’t for a while yet........
But, either way, we know we have a test - a great test - which will soon be ready.
In reality - it will be ready when it’s ready. Well intentioned timelines are only best guesses.
Avacta is doing the hard work. All we investors have to do is acknowledge their superb efforts, sit back patiently, trust in their undoubted expertise and be grateful for the potentially huge rewards which are just around the corner. IMHO they are coming by the shed load.....
Agreed, Zoom.
And Sir Al did say ‘around’ the end of Q1, not ‘by the end of Q1.
There’s an obvious difference.
I don’t think anyone can seriously criticise him until say, at least the first week of April has passed by without news.
I strongly feel that great news will indeed come by then.
Love bug - totally agree.
Paul Hill’s infectious enthusiasm might lead him to accidentally become both the interviewer and the interviewee at some points, but he has clearly taken the trouble to acquire a good layman’s understanding of the whole range of Avacta’s activities - and this has evidently made him hugely passionate about the Affimer revolution .
He does get Sir Al to open up more than any previous interviewer and I ended up being amazed at the sheer breadth of potential for Affimers across an enormous range of medical applications - more even than I had imagined...
If these succeed in large numbers in the coming few years then Avacta’s annual income will, comfortably, be measured in the several billions of pounds per annum.
Even if a loose, rough and ready multiplier of, say, 10x is used to get to some sort of market value for the company, this would then be at least tens of billions of pounds which, at a share value of roughly £4 for every billion of market value, potentially translates to a share value in the £100’s in due course.
Unless there’s a takeover....
Please, no takeover! Let us make the big money here, not some giant Pharma....
Raprap - nice post and very uplifting!
The figures you suggest would presumably lead to a share price in the range of at least £200 - £300 within that period of 10 years. Not a bad thought!
Obviously, all depends on (a) everything going as well as the company could reasonably hope and (b) not getting taken over along the way.......but the prospects are potentially mind boggling.....
Just some random, rough and ready, back of fag packet thoughts.
Nothing clever - just very idle thoughts.....
1. It seems possible that the LFT, successfully launched with great S/S could soon lead to an SP in the range of £5 - £10.
2. BAMS effect if successful - an extra couple of pounds , maybe?
3. A little later on - if oncology trial results are excellent, a very substantial uplift? Current world chemo market is $56 billion. Equates to just over £40 billion. With a world beating innovative treatment, assuming not just doxorubicin but other chemo drugs , too, Avacta’s hope could surely be to get AT LEAST 50% of that market? Thus, an income of £20 billion per annum. Maybe more, if the new therapy results in more treatments being given and an increase in the world market size?
If that income were treated as though it were capital, that would translate on its own to a SP of at least £80. Would possibly be greatly more in real capital terms if suitable multipliers were applied.
So, adding that little lot together, it’s easy to see how an SP of nearly £100 does not, maybe, look totally ridiculous at some point - assuming (a) a high level of success on these major fronts and (b) no take over.
And this disregards the impact of the licensing deals and the JV with Daewoong etc etc.
Intelligent posters will probably point out these thoughts are manifestly nothing better than a pile of steaming horse manure, but it’s cheerful thinking and hopefully harmless!
Energyshares - yet another very helpful post, thank you!
You’re really on a superb roll right now - keep up your great work. It’s appreciated!
Paring the latest news back to the basics, where are we?
1. There is a working test which is likely to be the most accurate in the world
2. Testing will be in huge demand for years to come - worldwide.
3. The test will likely be on the market in about April, and Avacta will be able to sell more than it can ever produce, whether in the U.K. or abroad or both.
4. Short term, the share price might well fall for a while. Medium term it will fly. Longer term it will skyrocket.
5. IMHO, it would seem unwise to sell now.
Abingdon’s RNS today announces a smart phone app to convert the smartphone into an LFT reader.
Will that tech be available for the joint Avacta/Mologic test?
Sound promising - and would make any announcement by Boris of great British innovations with the best test even better.... if and when he gets on with making that announcement......
Wiggly - excellent analysis!
Spot on .....
A typically professional and sensible RNS.
It avoids stealing Boris’ thunder and confirms what we already knew perfectly well - ie we must await final validation .... which is extremely likely to be successful very soon, especially after the recent excellent figures on S/S were announced.
We are without any reasonable doubt the favoured ones and the predicted huge success will follow - as night follows day.
Patience is still needed - but so what?
My random guess is that today’s SP will go up modestly.
IF Boris decides to mention Avacta by name this evening , then the SP tomorrow will go up very significantly .
After that - the SP will vacillate until we hear the final news of full test approval - and then the SP will go up again.
What a wonderful investment to be holding - in the short - and especially the longer term.
Hold, hold hold.