Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
If it were not for the short term serious SP harm and genuine anxiety they inflict (especially on small private investors) , it might just be possible, perversely, to see the efforts of a big time pro shorter in a more positive light - at least, in one limited sense…..
Big shorters do not select companies that have no future. They pick companies in which they have considerable medium/long term confidence - but which are experiencing short term loss of sentiment.
After all, the shorting process is ultimately about replacing a shareholding of a certain size with a much larger one in the same company at no real cost. The big shorters are not, in reality, asserting that the target company is likely to do badly - they want to company to thrive and do well, enhancing the value of their increased shareholding in it.
In tbat sense, the attention of large pro shorting is a form of compliment in anything other than the short term duration of the short. It is, bizarrely, a sincere vote of longer term confidence.
I hate the process and the short term harm that shorters inflict…..and the misery they cause to small private investors, some of whom are unable to hang on tightly to their attacked shares.
But the very existence of the shorting process could be seen as a strong signal, if possible, to cling on ever more tightly to a private shareholding - for every short ends at some point, and, when it does, the SP goes up significantly.
But it is an undeniable pleasure, when it happens, to see shorters get burned - and badly.
Valueinv - very likely they’d be legally prohibited from buying currently.
Could amount to insider trading as they have access to private trial figures not known to others.
My guess is that there might well be a legal obligation under FDA rules for Avacta to update the FDA on the results ( in full detail) of the effects of the drug in humans - good or bad. In the present case, VERY good news indeed.
Ollyj24 - your view makes a lot of sense and could well turn out to be a good call.
MCB - a passing thought….
1. It’s highly likely that AS has very good news to impart officially concerning AVA6000, for example.
2. If so, then an official announcement/update when made will very likely lead to a significant uplift in SP
3. AS is keen to get many more II’s involved - thus the meetings coming up.
4. BUT - timing wise - if he announces before the meetings start, then the II’s will be presented with a much higher SP entry level if they want to invest. Less attractive to them.
5. If he announces after the meetings have begun or when they’re all concluded, the II’s will have more temptation to invest.
6. There presumably cannot be a wholly binding obligation (yet) to make the announcement by RNS before these meetings begin - otherwise the RNS would have been published already?
EGTP - thank you for your two part post, giving a well rounded overview of Avacta and its possibilities going forward.
I share your medium and long term optimism. The opportunities arising from the IP it owns are enormous, and very varied . The potential is simply enormous.
Like many others I sincerely wish the current issue with the LFT had not arisen - but it has, and I believe that disclosing the shortcomings of the test (a defect probably shared by most if not all other tests) was the right thing to do. Painful (very) in the short term , but nonetheless the right course to adopt. It will help to sustain Avacta’s reputation for honesty and professionalism, and this will serve it well eg when the therapeutics come to market.
The very significant funds lost to date on LFT sales will be seen within about 2-3 years as small beer compared with the revenues likely to flow from the therapeutics arm - assuming that the AVA6000 etc trials are as successful as we all hope - and have some reason to expect - they will be.
Short term pain, long term gain - all being well. Nothing at all is guaranteed, of course, and the risk of failure certainly exists, but there are grounds for real optimism, I believe.
I’ve been invested since 2013 and increased my investment when the Covid test prospects appeared - but my real reason for being here at all remains as before - ie the prospect of enhanced treatments for cancer. I will be holding until the likes of AVA6000 etc come to fruition - or, we get taken over, whichever comes first.
Older and Wiser - I suspect that any future need for a cash raise (if needed) will be made much easier on the basis that, by then, good news should have been made public about AVA6000 results - and people will be queueing up for shares then.
Fingers crossed.
I suspect that, post Brexit, HMG is absolutely desperate to secure a trading agreement with China, and that committing blindly to using inferior Chinese LFT’s is one step down the slippery slope to that end.
It is the lack of transparency and honesty that leave such a foul taste in the mouth - and U.K. companies get screwed over in the process.
No chance of persuading HMG to use U.K. LFT’s while this remains their overriding aim.
Avacta is wise to look elsewhere.
Have signed the online petition and have sent two detailed e-mails, each attaching different (recent) Myles McNulty e-mails (plus my own thoughts) , to my local ( Rushcliffe) MP, seeking her assistance in pressing her fellow MP’s to recognise HMG’s abysmal failures to recognise U.K. LFT’s, especially Avacta’s., and to engage with Avacta in reducing the unnecessary loss of
life which flows inevitably from the use of inferior Chinese tests.
Will report any material response.
GLA.
Thanks, Energyshares - I hadn’t read that before.
Very easy to read - and very encouraging.
Energyshares - yes! Have searched for a second one but no joy.
Still, very happy with the one that has come through!
Will the SP - for once - move up decently to at least begin to reflect something of the true underlying value here?
Fingers crossed!
AgentB - thanks for your helpful reply re Vitamin D .
AgentB - thanks for this very useful vitamin D message.
I take it as a supplement already and will continue to do so, especially in light of the latest Covid news.
Just one question - is the anti Covid recommended dosage 100 milligrams or 100 microgrammes.
I’m no scientist and it’s all beyond my understanding, so I just want to check!
Myles - yet another superb post … a timely reminder of why LTH’s should attach themselves to their holdings with superglue until the share price hits really serious heights - and not mess about with thoughts of selling as and when it first hits, say, a mere £5 or so.
I dread, above all, a takeover offer coming in at a pathetically low figure like £5/10 , because I suspect so many people will have become weary of waiting and will have lost sight of the vastly larger goal that, IMHO, will be hit within about 2/3 years or so.
This genuinely seems to me to be potentially a once in a lifetime opportunity to transform the lives of patients, and of investors alike, and it would be tragic for investors to miss out on that SP potential.
DYOR, and GLA.
Steelwatch - I could not agree more. You are absolutely correct.
The sniping sneerers are wrong in their swingeing and often vicious criticisms of Myles McNulty.’His views are well thought out and his (shared) research excellent.
He may - or may not - prove to be wholly accurate in due course, but his rationale is constructive and decently balanced.
Cue lots of sneering from the usual quarters?
His intelligent observations are interesting and usually pretty well founded.
Spot on - that’s exactly right, Radiagreen.
Sleepydave - excellent post - and a very useful reminder of what is worthwhile here. Thanks.
Thanks for the positivity, Myles - this board could use an extra dose of that right now….
I certainly know nothing more than anyone else - and massively less than most - but (for what it’s worth!) my instincts tell me that Avacta is heading in the right direction, if at an apparently slower speed than most would like.
Those instincts are fed by the excellent research that some posters undertake and generously share with the rest of us, plus the simple gut feeling deriving from watching, reading, listening and trying to learn.
I can only hope my instincts are right.
They have been tested a good deal in the 8 years that I’ve now been invested here - and increasingly so since I put the kitchen sink into this investment!
GLA .
Fingers crossed….
Templar - totally agree with your thinking …..a good post.
There ARE good reasons to remain very positive here.
Roundhowe - thanks for posting this.
There are strong views for and against Myles McNulty expressed on this board - but, IMHO this is about as worthwhile a description of the overall AVCT position right now as I am likely to read before the company finally breaks its current silence on the major issues.