Great post re Q1 and outlook15 Apr 2025 10:11
From Pearls, and I tend to agree with the view points and figures..
My expectations are revised.
I now expect the following:
Q1: $2-3m
Q2: $3-4m
Q3: $4-5m
Q4: $6-8m
I think the increasing DI sales have not been fully appreciated here, it really is taking off at a speed of knots. Furthermore, now I relook at how they had "over 35 inbound inquiries in the last 90 days of FY24 from virtually zero" [in the previous 90 days] what I also realise is that their reputation is now in essence, repaired. Folk are putting in live inquiries, some of these are converting to orders, and the level of inquiries is increasing. In turn I expect the level of DI deals to rise, and RNS announcements of bigger new deals to increase in frequency as word spreads, contacts are made, and deals are done. The old turnovers of 2023 and part of 2024 reflected a broken company whose reputation was torn apart. That legacy position is now dealt with, and turnover is clearly returning. As SK himself commented, the rate of orders is not going to be linear, therefore the increasing order rate should be most noticeable as we get further into the year and the third and particularly the fourth quarter should demonstrate this. My estimates of trading are revised accordingly. I think if things really develop, by the end of the year, especially if SK manages to keep costs at $16m - 17m, we could easily see FCF+ emerge which will simply be a game changer. I imagine private estimates by SK show that this is possible from the fourth quarter onwards if CRTA sees strong first and second quarter growth. Momentum is clearly building here, the market now needs to catch up with it.
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