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Even more "priced to fail" today. Must be more institutional sales (M&G reduced a fortnight ago - more from them?).
Could and should have sold this when it was north of 110p - and I was in profit - at the start of the year.
Well, let's hope Boohoo and PLT continue to leave Missguided for dust if Missguided falls into Shein's hands....
Time will tell, but as I see it it's just another brick of worry that I'm being asked to climb over as a Boohoo shareholder.
Hi Wolf. "Why are Frasers turning their back on it... given their strategic shift into digital?" The answer is that Ashley's a trader and has made quite a few 'strategic' (read opportune) investments of late, which he'd be happy to flip for a profit. They're not all long-term plays.
This is what he does. And he's rather good at.
Not sure I see how people can spin this as good news for Boohoo shareholders.
Shein muscling in on, and presumably reviving, a UK online fashion label, surely represents increased competition and therefore more pressure on margins in respect of Boohoo's operations.
FWIW, Vox believe Supreme are on top of the potential regulatory changes:
"According to the World Health Organization approximately 1.8m people die each year from lung cancer, including 35,000 in the UK. The vast majority of fatalities, around 80% in fact, are tragically caused by either direct or passive smoking.
One of most effective ways of encouraging hardened smokers to quit cigarettes is to switch them to vaping. That is why the NHS is in the process of handing out 1m free devices - indeed it's been proven that people are twice as likely to give up tobacco by using e-cigarettes, as opposed to other nicotine replacements such as patches or gum.
However the only problems with vaping is preventing underage usage and disposing of cartridges, which mostly contain hard-to-recycle lithium ion batteries. That dual issue has prompted current media speculation that the UK government will soon ban single-use devices.
But one leading vape manufacturer has been pre-empting this problem: Supreme, which as well as distributing vapes sells other everyday products across batteries, lighting, and sports & nutrition. It operates best-in-class regulatory compliance to stop underage vaping, conducting third-party testing to ensure products are consistently in compliance with all UK laws, and spot checking retail stores to ensure adequate age verification protocols are being implemented.
The company also announced today that - in addition to its existing non-disposable product range - it would soon launch its own rechargeable 88Vape pod system that is much better for the environment.
In a brief trading update today, Supreme added that it remains on track to deliver "adjusted FY24 EBITDA in line with market expectations" of £25.6m. It also said it will "undertake a comprehensive review to measure the impact of any proposed changes across the medium to long term, once further clarity is provided."
At 96p, the stock trades on compelling FY24 PER, EBIT & EBITDA multiples of 7.1x, 5.2x & 4.4x, respectively, based on my forecasts of £25.5m and 13.5p in adjusted EBITDA and EPS on revenues up +16% to £181m. The associated sum-of-the-parts valuation remains unchanged at 195p a share."
I can't disagree with any of that. Unfortunately. It is a worry.
One small hope is I haven't noticed any major institutional sales, so one imagines the constant grind lower is a few PI's bailing out on thin volumes...
It is a poor update, but after the initial nasty drop this morning, the sharp recovery in the share price already underway is interesting. Is it telling us that the less committed holders have been flushed out, and we're finally at the bottom? I hope so.
My take is that a disposal vape ban was inevitable and, although I still have a holding and am feeling the pain this morning, I did sell a few in the past month in anticipation of this.
Taking a broader view, it is absolutely right that these cheap, nasty, environmentally unfriendly products marketed to teens should be banned and it would just align the UK with other sensible countries.
I also have no doubt that while Supreme will be hurt, it can navigate through the new regime. Management are smart and entrepreneurial and I'm sure have been preparing for this. Vapes are here to stay - they have clear health benefits vs smoking - but a higher quality product will be required.
Fishing, golfing, I'll take it. Better than trying to figure out why RENX is dropping again...
And a fair result even for those that bought in earlier. Anyway, I've bailed out at 44p giving me an annual rate of return of 14% over two and a half years, which I'll take in this market. Good luck people.
Ah, I get what you mean. The problem though with buying £10K of nil paids on the open market is that some brokers don't offer the facility. 3 years ago with the Hyve Group, Barclays only allowed the sale of rights, not the purchase of them.
I'm a current holder of Synt shares (sadly), so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Again with the Hyve R.I. (I took notes!), I sold the rights too early and could've doubled my profits had I'd waited a few more days.
It's interesting how these things cycle. As you probably know, Hyve was an exhibitions company which got into trouble with the covid lockdowns of 2020. I'm expecting this Synt one to be the 1st of a new crop! Your tutorial fee's in the post.
No need to apologise, you've been a total brick with your posts on this over the last couple of days and people s/be apologising to you!.
I'll pick your brain if I may about another thing. it's about those interesting few days when the shares and the rights are trading simultaneously. firstly, to be sure of the exact period, do you agree it will be the 2 weeks between 28th Sept ("Ex-rights date and nil paids admitted to trading") and 12th Oct ("Latest time and date for acceptances of rights")? Secondly, you said that while the shares and the rights were trading simultaneously, it was like having a leveraged bet on the share price. Is that because a 1p increase in the share price should (all things being equal) lead to exactly a 1p increase in the rights price and given we have 6 times as many rights as shares, it's a 6: 1 leveraged bet for the duration of 2 weeks? Finally, out of interest, what would you expect the share price to be between 26th Sept, the consolidation date, and 28th Sept, when the rights are admitted to trading? Simply 20 times the unconsolidated price (i.e., if £0.48 unconsolidated, then it would be £9.60)?
I can see the 20:1 consolidation will have taken place 2 days earlier place
Thank you HH for the generosity and patience in sharing your knowledge. The last Rights Issue/consolidation I had to deal with was Hyve Group 3 years ago and I've forgotten it all now, so your posts have been v helpful in brushing up.
Following your answer to lsealex, I can see that his 1200 shares at today's price of £0.48 gives a current value of £576. I can also see that these shares gets him 360 rights to buy at £1.97, so an additional £709.20 to pay if he takes up these rights in full. However, I'm lost where you say that he will then have 420 new shares worth £3.55 each assuming no price changes. I calculate he'll have, yes, 420 new shares, but worth £3.06 each, assuming no price changes. (I am assuming this is the TERP... and, where the share price (pre-consolidation and pre-rights) was £0.48, I'm calculating the TERP to be £3.06. Have I gone wrong?
It's probably necessary to do this kind of thing when doing business in these regions but, as regards dilution, it won't have escaped the notice of LTH's that we've just 'given' away 6% of the company to the Ghanaian fund for a knock-down price of 21p, just sayin'. ..