RE: Hurry Up10 Oct 2023 19:43
But that is chiefly because production has been heavily subsidised in all kinds of ways.
National (not local) subsidies have now been cut to zero. China is moving to the next stage of price wars and ferocious cost-cutting.
The tipping point for an EV consumer takeoff is when the “payback time” from lower running costs is under three years. Goldman thinks this will happen in China by 2025. EV sales will then go parabolic, leading to 80pc penetration by 2030.
This may understate the lightning speed of the change. Li Xiang, head of Chinese carmaker Li Auto, is betting that the 80pc threshold will be reached as soon as 2025. But let us not quibble.
A clutch of new technologies are hitting the global market and will lead to a new set of winners and losers by 2026.
Chemists have long eyed silicon as a substitute for graphite in battery anodes. It can store over 10 times as much lithium and therefore has far higher energy density – for anoraks, 4,200mAh/g v 372mAh/g. It is abundant and has a lower CO2 footprint, but has been too unstable for anodes until recently.
The industry has now figured out how to harness silicon using nanotechnology. One leading start-up is the British firm Nexeon, a spin-out from Imperial College, London. It is building a commercial-scale plant in Korea to supply batteries for Panasonic, blending carbon and silicon as its secret sauce.
The company’s Karandeep Bhogal told me that this cut costs by 20pc, boosts the driving range by 20-40pc and opens the way for a flood of smaller mass-market EVs. “We can raise energy density by 50pc and reduce the battery size by a third. You need less cells, less material, less weight, less everything,” he said.
The Chinese battery maker BYD, now the top global producer of EVs by volume, has stolen a march with its new “blade” batteries. These are less likely to catch fire, charge extremely quickly and last 1.2 million kilometres on 3,000 cycles. They are already being used in some Tesla and Mercedes models.
Toyota missed the first EV wave but is betting on resurrection from its “bipolar” battery, the fruit of 20 years research. An LFP variant will come into play in 2026-2027 with a range of nearly 800 km and at a cost of $95 kWh, followed a year later with a muscular version reaching 1,400 km range at around $115 kWh.
Don't write off Toyota. Goldman Sachs has issued a share buy rating. “We see the company as one of the few automakers globally capable of constructing a vertically integrated model for electric vehicles,” said the report.
Big cylindrical batteries are coming of age too. Tesla has slashed $2,000-3,000 from the cost of its 4680 battery pack by cutting the number of cells by 80pc. All these intermediate technologies are hitting the market or will be by the middle of the decade.
This is before the larger quantum leap to solid state batteries, with double or even triple the energy density of lithium ion batt
Sign In
Follow the stocks
