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And would expect any such offer to be disclosed to the market out of hours when the price is sort of suspended anyway

I'm with Crowman as well - my reading of the FCA handbook that Manifesto posts below relates to listed companies in distress and I really hope / do not believe that to be the case

IMO should a bid be received, whether external or internal (ie MBO) stock price will rise to close to the offer price. How close depends upon the market's view of the likelihood of the bid succeeding (think probability of default in reverse). Clearly an MBO, should, in theory, have a significant success probability. I would expect price to move as this "assumed probability" level changes as more information is provided and a liquidity premium is added in as the cost to close for the shorts but would not expect price to move much above the offer

This may or may not be relevant. A VP at BAC is pretty junior

The Crest number measures the value of the borrows. Whilst such financing trades are not solely used to fund shorts, the figure will be approximate to the max short value in the market

Hope that helps. All IMO and happy to be corrected on any inaccuracies

Grrr. Lost half the post

FCA do not now shorts less than 0.1%. This is where the crest numbers come in when a shorter shorts a stock they must deliver the shares to the counter party they have sold to, but they do not own them. They therefore borrow the shares from another counter party, who is long the stock. These borrows are in return for cash or pledges of other collateral usually

@Manc re your comment on shorts perhaps this may help

The FCA have to be informed of all shorts >0.1% by shorting party and stock. The FCA inform the public of shorts >0.5% on the same basis. As such whilst we know of only two shorts >0.5%, the FCA will know of others between 0.1 and 0.49%. However they do not know all shorts - those

I’ve just been looking at the trades going through and see a lot of buys of 4.5k very close together, often after a wave of sells. Looks strange to me, almost as if someone is looking to build a position or indeed close a short without bidding the market too much

Thoughts?

It wouldn’t surprise me if shorts are being reduced right now. Price changes are following the patterns of last week when bid until mid morning then coming off for a bit. Reduction in shorts then published after close

OSG - IG have reopened a two way market in THG. I’m not certain but think it was from yesterday. I have a standard account paying 50% margin. At those levels and the appalling spreads they add you may as well trade the cash market

Oops 100.5

Biggest size at reasonable levels is 30k in two pieces 105 ask

OAC - sizes are moving around. Still typically quite small at best levels on both sides but definitely more upside liquidity ATM

I stopped watching it in the end but did see well over 200k get taken not in one clip but mainly in decent size (plus a few small pieces). Market then got bid and did not see what happened to the rest

I'm sat watching it OSG - it's getting filled

Anytime Cong. Yes the FCA publish shorts >0.5% daily by the shorter and the share. They also show the history

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx

This is picked up by various websites including this one where it is easier to see

Cong - there are currently two reporting hurldles (I) tell the FCA when 0.1% short and (II) tell the market when 0.5% short

(I) is increasing from 0.1% to 0.2% and (II) is going away completely

As such the regulator will have less visibility to shorts and we will have none

Am I getting confused or have a series of largish trades dated yesterday just shown on the blotter?

FWIW I agree with you SBB

Just to add based on volumes, I would estimate that Qube would need over a week to work the buys on the open market

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/THG/thg-plc/trade-recap?page=7

Let’s say daily volume of 4mm, 50-50 buy sell split. - 2m buys a day. That’s a fairly extended period of pain to close the short in a market that is being bid even if Qube account for all buys….

Soletraderbl1 - it’s very hard to analyse with any degree of precision but let’s say (conservatively)

1.3bn shares in issue

Qube short 0.9% = 11.7m shares assuming published short based on issued shares

That is going to be painful to close. I don’t mean their PL but actually doing it given the published trading volumes. They are relatively thin with quite a small free float

It does beg the question who they borrowed the shares from to deliver the short

IMO - please correct me if wrong