There's a 239k bid at 69p been sitting there since 12.45 for those who cannot see the order book. Good to have that sort of support
GLA
Thank you all
Manifesto
Will the RNS come out today?
Thanks
FCA shows Qube at 0.69%
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
I bought some of the Lidl mint choc chip last week - purely for research purposes of course😀. Looked up the manufacturer but all I could find was that it’s Lidl own brand. Unfortunately my research was so successful that I finished the tub along with the remnants of my My Protein control sample. The Lidl one wasn’t bad at all but always find that mint choc chip tastes more chemically than other flavours. I did not compare the ingredients lists but suspect that there’s more rubbish in the Lidl one. It is only £2.69 from memory. Perhaps more research is required…..
OSG. There is no print edition of City AM Fridays. Extract from Wiki - note the distribution and target audience (ie I highly likely to be affluent). At the risk of stirring up old debate, I cannot believe that underground users to not see it on a regular basis
“ The newspaper is published in print Monday to Thursday with a "digital edition" on Fridays,[8] and is distributed at more than 400 selected commuter hubs across London and the Home Counties, as well as over 500 offices throughout the City, Canary Wharf and other areas of high business concentration”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_A.M.#:~:text=The%20newspaper%20is%20published%20in,concentration%2C%20with%20an%20average%20daily
That was me who posted the site 2phevs. I thought that how the info was presented was interesting. Borrow rates can also be squeezed in the repo / equity financing markets and can be seen to some extent as a signal for a potential squeeze in the cash market so I shall be keeping an eye out for this. Don’t know why THG borrow costs rose so much that day but it will cause shorters pain. Imagine the scenario where the cost to cover shorts increases massively and share price gets bid heavily. That scenario is a double whammy for shorters
1p also posted a link to another site that I look at. Very good info on it but parts of it are less granular than the other one. Unfortunately there is a lot of info behind a paywall there
https://fintel.io/ss/gb/thg
Apologies if people are already aware of this site but came across this earlier. I do not know how accurate it is but seems to source details from Interactive Brokers. IB lets you loan your longs for shorts to borrow and IB split the borrow fee with you. I am not aware of other brokers allowing you do do this (they may just loan stock and bury it in the T&Cs)
https://companiesmarketcap.com/the-hut-group/cost-to-borrow/
Basically there are >10mm shares available to cover shorts at a rate of 2%pa. This is not expensive given where overnight money is. However it is relatively expensive when compared with:-
OCDO has 4.5m available to borrow at 0.75% and TSLA (picked at random) >10m at 0.25%. NWG is 800k at 2.6%
Question is some holders must be allowing their longs to fund shorts for yield enhancement purposes, but who? IIs maybe?
Agree Pearls. I was writing from a simplifying assumption of just a single bid. If additional bids either come in or are expected to then I would expect price to move to a new "assumed probability" level
Agreed ihavenoclue - I really do wonder how close the share price got to the Apollo level but we are unlikely to ever know
And would expect any such offer to be disclosed to the market out of hours when the price is sort of suspended anyway
I'm with Crowman as well - my reading of the FCA handbook that Manifesto posts below relates to listed companies in distress and I really hope / do not believe that to be the case
IMO should a bid be received, whether external or internal (ie MBO) stock price will rise to close to the offer price. How close depends upon the market's view of the likelihood of the bid succeeding (think probability of default in reverse). Clearly an MBO, should, in theory, have a significant success probability. I would expect price to move as this "assumed probability" level changes as more information is provided and a liquidity premium is added in as the cost to close for the shorts but would not expect price to move much above the offer
This may or may not be relevant. A VP at BAC is pretty junior
The Crest number measures the value of the borrows. Whilst such financing trades are not solely used to fund shorts, the figure will be approximate to the max short value in the market
Hope that helps. All IMO and happy to be corrected on any inaccuracies
Grrr. Lost half the post
FCA do not now shorts less than 0.1%. This is where the crest numbers come in when a shorter shorts a stock they must deliver the shares to the counter party they have sold to, but they do not own them. They therefore borrow the shares from another counter party, who is long the stock. These borrows are in return for cash or pledges of other collateral usually
@Manc re your comment on shorts perhaps this may help
The FCA have to be informed of all shorts >0.1% by shorting party and stock. The FCA inform the public of shorts >0.5% on the same basis. As such whilst we know of only two shorts >0.5%, the FCA will know of others between 0.1 and 0.49%. However they do not know all shorts - those
I’ve just been looking at the trades going through and see a lot of buys of 4.5k very close together, often after a wave of sells. Looks strange to me, almost as if someone is looking to build a position or indeed close a short without bidding the market too much
Thoughts?
It wouldn’t surprise me if shorts are being reduced right now. Price changes are following the patterns of last week when bid until mid morning then coming off for a bit. Reduction in shorts then published after close
OSG - IG have reopened a two way market in THG. I’m not certain but think it was from yesterday. I have a standard account paying 50% margin. At those levels and the appalling spreads they add you may as well trade the cash market
Oops 100.5