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Yeah thought i remembered your name! Managed to get out about flat, on those. Colin bird, what a shyster. I was in jlp too, terrible company got out of those for a small profit around 4.5p.

Yeah MM sold bmn around about when i got in, bit of a shocker!

*my entry point rather than ‘me’ - on iphone!

Thanks VCKP, definitely worked out ok that trade. I meant that i’d bought back into BMN too soon, bought small amount back <43p. Very happy with me entry price heref first bought low 20s and more recently 30s.

A poster called minorminer recommended BMN to me on the GLR board. I was a bit sceptical at first but lookes more into vanadium and VRFBs and liked what i saw, was about 2-3 years ago.

I don’t like O&G, becuase it feels like an industry in terminal decline. Demand is decreasing and will continue to do so as we shift more to renewables. Previously renewables weren’t a credible threat, but with advancements in energy storage, it’s only a matter of time. It will take a while for the transport power infrastructure to change, but it will.

Bought BMN at 4.5p, sold my holding last week at 48p. I had a decent holding, so I'd been balancing selling those to free up some capital to buy in here. It's a great company, I bought a few back yesterday, possibly a bit to soon!

Genuinely exciting story, only downer is SA risk, but fairly well mitigated. Already chucking off a ton of cash, it's due a further re-rate. VRFBs definitely seem the way forward for static energy storage. To add to addcknt's point earlier, worth having copper, lithium AND vanadium in one's portfolio...

I don't think I'll ever buy an O&G stock again...

Exactly, the more ducks he has lined in row and the more it seems like he can take it to production, the more BMN/Newcrest/another suitor will have to pay...

Thanks Addicnkt, that's a great package, hence the high av. coupon for senior sec facility I guess. If we could get something like that here, it would be great. Pretty innovative financing. The FMGAU bond was pretty new in it's time with the pre-funded coup, but credit mkts are certainly a lot more competitive these days, so probably wouldn't need to give that away have less onerous covenants in general. Do we have sufficient expertise to take it to production though? I think we probably do...

Thanks addicknt - in terms of the royalty financing, or the senior facility?

The royalty financing i think is just a complicated version of a farm in that favours hancock - it’s on revenues not profit, which could get messy and be a burden. I would rather some cleaner type of project financing with BHP.

The senior facility i don’t know too much about - Seems like a syndicated loan that can be drawn down over 5 years and becomes amortising over the following ten years with a early pre-payment provision via cash sweep up to 5 years? 6-7% seems pretty good considering. Is the coupon waived until the project becomes cash flow positive? Can’t see too many details on it other than in the presentation, would be interested to know. If SOLG can get a syndicated senior facility, that isn’t too aggessive and sufficiently light covenants it would be a no brainer; it might be more difficult for them vs. Sxx because of jusridiction, would assume it’s the uk banks backing SXX here.

On SXX in general - do you have a view btw? I know very little about it, or potash for that matter. Looks interesting at first glance, wondering if it’s worth investigating further. I know little of the potash market other than it’s been a widowmaker in the past!

Had been waiting for 2 years for my entry point though.

I’m a jonny come lately here, i have 500k @ 26p average. Feel the end game is several ££, these are locked up in my sipp for a later date now.

Yes possibly Jerry, might be decent route, but it is a huge project for that kind of financing. BHP can't go hostile for 2 years, by that point I think the ownership structure will be completely different anyway. Your point b) - I agree.

RE: the register I would imagine NM does have more than 50%, a quick look on HDS on bloomberg gets you to that 42% figure, it just illustrates that a hostile t/o will be very hard to implement. NM is no amateur, his deals wrt standstill agreements show more foresight than most at this level. As Addicknt says, it's rare (and great) to have a such skilled operator at the helm of a company with the quality of these assets. There are a load of junior E&P companies that had great assets, whose value wasn't realised by shareholders...

Agreed - apologies, I've kind of just waded in here recently, good quality board.

Cheers, enjoy the lunch !

Addicknt - I didn't hear him say that, but assuming he did I would say it's just a belt and braces, 'not going to get anywhere here, jog on' type comment.

What is important is the chess. At the current juncture NM has pre-emptively readied a very robust defence. From public info, at least 42% of the shares are in hands aligned with the company: 13.6% Newcrest, 11.24% DGR, 11.2% BHP, NM has 5% Ward 0.5%, Moller, Bovad, Weinberg ~0.7%. None of them are going to side with an aggressor. If an aggressor is silly enough to attempt something hostile, they will be rebuffed by newcrest or BHP; neither of those are here for a quick turn, this is a strategically important asset. Not many people have the firepower to take on BHP; if they do there will be fireworks. This cannot be compared to GKN, the 2 situations are entirely different. If someone is crazy enough to try to go hostile, there will be a bidding frenzy, BHP and Newcrest are not going to let it get taken from under them. The focus shouldn't be on the dangers of the firm having to spend money to defend itself. Under that scenario the take out will be multiples of where it is now. So worrying about hostile takeovers is fairly moot. The probability of one is very low and the resulting rewards of one are very high.

As I said last night, whether NM takes this to production is another matter; actually it's the key question. If he doesn't want to farm-in/JV/dispose assets, he is going to require a trip to the capital markets (where I've worked for 20 years, mostly in special sits investing btw). He is not going to get debt-financing without having cashflow, unless possibly he does what fortescue did in their intital HY bond (which I owned a decent slug of) and pre-fund the coupon until production (but that will require substantial cash for the size of bond they will need to issue). He could maybe issue a convert, but that will be dilutive, or a bond with warrants attached (also dilutive), or fund through rights issue (even more dilutive). So where is he going to find the cash to develop up to production? I think his best bet is to JV or sell Alapala with/to BHP. The funds and subsequent cashflow, will allow him to explore/develop all the other targets without having to return to capital markets until the time he can issue straight debt financing. If they are as good as they seem to be, this would be my preferred outcome.

In reality he could just be keeping his cards close and polishing it up to sell to BHP. He isn't going to get top dollar by telling them he's really keen on selling. The guy is no dummy..

Either way, it's not going to get bought for a song by an aggressor, the deal will be on NM's terms...

Yes, but that isn’t a hostile bid, it’s a friendly one.

Ha!

Unic, sav thanks.

KB it hasn’t NM clarified in the webinar that it was a typo and it’s still 2 years.

There is a lot of misinformation being spread about a hostile takeover here.

Facts are, hostile acquirer requires 51%. The freefloat here is 46%.

Assuming the free float somehow got to the required amount, you have two of the most powerful mining companies in the world with significant stakes that would be white knights (possibly squires), the bidding process then becomes very competitive. Those two companies are also restricted from mounting a hostile takeover: BHP for 2 years; newcrest for less, but bhp would be white knight vs newcrest and win, it’s much much larger.

In summary, this is not NMs first rodeo, he has locked this up. There will not be a successfully conducted or attempted hostile takeover any time in the next 2 years. Talk of spending millions mounting a defence is spurious.

Whether NM takes it through to production or not is another debate.

Edinburgh no question

Yup, 100% agree.

fair enough response