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Keep the faith Rocky as I have mentioned I am not going to get frustrated about acquisition stuff and always viewed it as a bonus even if we are suspended for another year till June 2025, what i will judge the company on is how are they doing in Nigeria and Niger as that is the priority for me which I am looking to see how both of those operations are articulated in the full year results.
- I want to see CPF facility on the cusp of completion
- I want to see volumes increasing and potential new gas customers taking our production to over 30,000 boepd per day
- I want to see them clearly articulate how they are managing the Naira fluctuations, and if they aren't restructuring the accugas debt than how are they managing this now and going forewords, hopefully in plain English.
- I want to see Niger plans being more aggressive now that the pipeline is complete and oil is heading to international markets.
If they can achieve on all of the above than I will give them as long as they need to close the south sudan acquisition or bring a deal to market.
Obviously we will have to wait to see what the update within the next 4 weeks tells us in terms of South Sudan acquisition progress and whether we are still pursuing this towards completion it’s a wait and see.
Did notice slight drift in timelines as the one on the 5th April suggested AD would be published in late Q2 2024 /early Q3 2024. Whilst the rns this morning simply states Q3 2024 so we could in theory be talking end of September as well…………. As I said let’s see what the update says in the next 4 weeks as this one still lacks the necessary clarity.
At least we will have our full year 2023 accounts now been craving for a business update for our current operations for a while now so would be a good place for all on here to view how the accugas business is performing and Niger plans
Caution - I believe a lot of the info is based on FY 2022 accounts so perhaps once they release the FY 2023 accounts a lot of the actual content will be updated to reflect / reference the wording in FY 2023 document.
Is this the plan for Niger as per the updated website
https://www.savannah-energy.com/operations/niger/market-opportunity/
Interesting Looks like Savannah Energy has a new website which has just gone live, looks like they have enhance some design work etc.............
https://www.savannah-energy.com/
Looks like CNPC playing a big role in mediation and initiated first loading
Benin-Niger Pipeline: Talon authorises the first load
The Minister of Water and Mines, Samou Séidou Adambi, was in the afternoon of Wednesday, May 15 in front of Beninese media men. The objective of this press briefing, which he jointly hosted with the Chinese delegation, was to decide on the Benin-Niger Pipeline project. During this media release, the ministerial authority announced that Benin intends to play its partition under this agreement. "We have decided to authorise the loading of the first ship that anchors in our waters. Benin has no intention of harming the interests of the State of Niger or those of our common partner," said the ministerial authority.
This authorisation follows a letter from Nigerian customs to Beninese customs. The tone has not ceased to be harsh on the Benin side. According to the Minister, this authorisation will not be a rule of conduct for the operation of the Benin-Niger Pipeline. He also informed in his statement that an inter-state meeting will take place as part of the continuation of this project. The meeting was requested by the Chinese Wapco Society.
The objective is to examine urgent topics related to the proper conduct of operating operations. As a reminder, in the past week, Benin decided to block the embarcation of Nigerian oil from the Sèmè Kpodji platform in Benin where the pipeline lands. This decision was justified by the Beninese number one during an interview, the entirety of which was broadcast by the Presidency of the Republic on its Youtube channel.
https://lanouvelletribune.info/2024/05/pipeline-benin-niger-talon-autorise-le-premier-chargement/
Breaking news | Benin, Niger
Beijing dispatches delegation to Cotonou in bid to reach deal over CNPC oil
Breaking news published on 15/05/24, at 12:45 pm GMT - Patrice Talon quietly welcomed a Chinese delegation on the morning of 15 May. Its aim is to help broker a deal between Niamey and Cotonou on the thorny Agadem oil dossier.
A delegation including Chinese officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Energy, as well as executives from China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is currently in Cotonou. Their mission is to settle the crisis between Benin and Niger over the Agadem oil field, which the Chinese state-owned company operates. The delegation arrived in the Beninese capital on the evening of 14 May, accompanied by the Chinese ambassador to Benin, Peng Jingtao, and was received in the morning of 15 May by President Patrice Talon. Benin's energy minister, Samou Séidou Adambi, and its foreign minister, Adjadi Bakar, were also present. In the course of the meeting, the Beninese side was persuaded to allow the filling of the first tanker with Nigerien crude.
Talon publicly had made it known last week that the crude oil from Agadem, which is being transported via a recently completed pipeline, would not be transferred to a tanker at the Beninese port of Sémè until the land border with Niger is reopened by Niamey (AI, 10/05/24). That border has been closed since the July 2023 coup d'état in Niger led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
Time is of the essence
The Nigerien junta is relying heavily on the $400m in pre-financing promised by CNPC, pledged against future shipments of crude oil from Agadem. But so far, not a single dollar has been disbursed.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: the tanker responsible for loading the first cargo of Agadem crude oil entered Benin's territorial waters on 14 May. The 275m-long vessel named Front Cascade is registered in the Marshall Islands and has a capacity of 130,000 tonnes of crude oil, or 900,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The pipeline between Agadem and Sémè, completed a few weeks ago, is set to transport some 90,000 bpd from the Agadem fields. These fields have supplied Niger's Zinder refinery (20,000 bpd) since 2011.
Rockyride - On a deal cancel scenario a business update would have to be given on re-listing as we have been suspended for over 18 months, so even if there is a deal cancel scenario than they would have to either release a comprehensive business update or FY23 accounts.
Hence even if we are heading down deal cancel scenario, one would expect to either extend this Friday or if the accounts are ready release the accounts Savannah may seek to extend even if they know that is the scenario just by a few additional weeks in order to get the FY23 accounts out and than terminate deal.
The article states that the pipeline is a major boon for CNPC and savannah energy let’s hope this Benin border dispute gets resolved soon and Savannah release a compprehensive plan for Niger as part of full year accounts
Africa Pipeline Alert! – The Niger-Benin mega pipeline has transported its first Nigerien oil to the Seme Krake oil terminal in Benin. However, the oil remains within the pipeline due to a border dispute. Benin has said that Niger has closed its border with Benin, causing an increase in smuggling. As a result, Benin is refusing to allow Nigerien crude to be offloaded at the terminal. The pipeline runs 1,275 km from the Agadem oil field to the SORAZ refinery in Niger and then extends 675 km to the Port Seme terminal in Benin.
Niger is a landlocked country with severe infrastructure constraints. The new pipeline has a capacity of 110,000 bbl/d, with up to 90,000 bbl/d of this being exported from Seme and the remainder supplying SORAZ. The pipeline is a major boon for CNPC International Ltd. (operator of Agadem) and Savannah Energy (operator of the R1/R2/R3/R4 development), as it will provide easier access to international markets.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/welligence_africa-pipeline-alert-the-niger-benin-activity-7196108914524930049-cY5m?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Great article from FT highlighting the current dispute with Benin and Niger. I don't think this will last long considering it's in there mutual interest to get the oil flowing and loading from Benin port
https://www.ft.com/content/13ecd2c4-61a6-49c9-9b37-6429e3c67538
Looks like savannah will be moving to new head quarters in Akwa Ibom hopefully spurring the growth trajectory of the accugas asset and the recent developments occurring in OML 13 Licence area which covers our pipeline network.
https://daybreak.ng/aibom-multi-billion-naira-21-storey-building-still-vacant-four-years-after/
SP reporting today that we are still waiting on key approvals from Juba
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051424-oil-output-dip-pipeline-woes-lead-south-sudan-economy-to-cliff-edge
Moment of flux
Promises to supply large quantities of crude to the UAE come at a moment of flux for South Sudan's oil sector, with Malaysia's Petronas in the process of selling the country's main upstream assets to London-listed Savannah Energy for $1.2 billion.
South Sudan holds Africa's third-largest oil reserves but has seen production fall dramatically from a peak of 350,000 b/d after independence from Sudan in 2011.
The Savannah deal -- initially expected to be completed in September 2023 -- would make the UK company a key stakeholder in Blocks 3/7, 1/2/4 and 5A, with a 40% stake in Dar Petroleum Operating Co., alongside CNPC with 41%, Sinpec with 6% and Nilepet with the remainder. The general manager position rotates between shareholders.
However, the deal has been repeatedly delayed, most recently on April 6, when Savannah announced the transaction would likely close in the late second quarter or early third quarter.
The UK firm, which last year had its assets in Chad nationalized by the country's government, is still awaiting key approvals from Juba.
Zengas - Even if the chad deal fails to close, i imagine we would extend until the accounts are released and than come back to the market, with us being suspended for nearly 1 year and half there isn't a pricing point if the south sudan deal fails to complete so the release of 2023 full year accounts will inform the markets on how to view the business performance regardless of any other deals and attribute a deemed value based on performance and prospect assigned to accugas and Niger
We all know that savannah are under no obligation to wait for formal written government approval to come to market with an admission document, however with the chad situation and increasing trend of African government sticking there foot in divestment deals has made AK vary of coming to market without formal written approval on this front I fully concur with him and best to wait out as there is plenty of deals out there that has had interventions the list is endless, chad, gabon, nigeria etc................all the deals in the countries listed have struggled to close successfully as i write so in this respect we are not alone, the only exception is probably the afentra azule deal which again was smaller in size compared to all the other deals in various countries still awaiting government approval.
I think many on here are annoyed by the fact of silence on the accugas and niger side of the business where there the company has frustrated on that's the main sticking point and not the deal making for me personally.
Longshort / Zen - not long to wait now as the full year results are due in the next 4 weeks. So all will be revealed.
Personally if they can get stuff right which is within there control I.e cpf completion and Niger work programme than we will be on our way towards the so growth that we all seek here.
Time for savannah to be more aggressive with what’s within there control and not waste too much time on blue sky chasing
Reason I was excited by the the OML 13 production news is because last weekend the NNPC Gas and power minister visited critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket and I believe that's where our Uquo CPF facility is in Eket Akwa Ibom, the pictures very much look like some of our accugas infrastructure as I don't believe there is any other Gas facility in Eket, I wonder whether the visit was to do our CPFfacility expansion completion which is likely due shortly
Over the past weekend, Mr. Olalekan Ogunleye, the Executive Vice President, Gas, Power & New Energy, NNPC Ltd., led the State House Media Team on a tour of critical gas infrastructure sites in Eket, Akwa Ibom State.
I think the OML 13 production news alongside the Gas minister visit to see the gas infrastructure in Eket tells me that gas production is likely to start to ramp up in OML 13 licence area and we are perfectly placed with the CPF facility expansion and increase development in the licence
https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1787860218732257667
A few weeks away from proving right those analysts who spoke last January of the fact that "this first operation in the oil sector since the August coup d'état is doomed to failure on a financial and political level and that it harms the investment climate of OPEC members”, those responsible for this takeover now have their backs against the wall. How will they go about obtaining this funding? What will be the conditions if they get funding? So many questions that arise at a time when “the GOC has clearly expressed its commitment to revitalizing Gabon's oil production through renewed exploration and a field optimization strategy” as stated Elsewhere recently indicated Sandra Jeque, event director at Energy Capital & Power.
https://gabonmediatime.com/rachat-dassala-goc-et-letat-gabonais-plus-que-jamais-sous-pression/
Pre-emption is never easy when the funding is difficult to find for failed economical states
Less than three weeks before the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) and the State are still looking for solutions to complete the acquisition of the Assala tanker. In search of the 1.2 billion dollars necessary for the conclusion of this operation, the Gabonese State comes up against its own turpitudes, in particular less than optimal governance and management of resources, which favor operating expenses to the detriment of public expenditure. investment. As a result, oil trading and brokerage companies could be called to the rescue, but at what cost? And under what conditions?
Announced just a few months after General Oligui Nguema came to power, the purchase of Assala's assets is struggling to be finalized by the Gabonese state, which is trying to buy time and attract new investors. In search of a strategy to shield this deal by the end of May and the end of the pre-emption period, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), mandated by the State in this operation, should for example take advantage of the Invest in forum African Energy 2024 (IAE 2024) which will be held in Paris on May 14 and 15, to continue its quest for financing. During this event focused on collaboration between European and African markets, Marcellin Simba Ngabi, ADG of GOC, will play his part. But how did we get there?
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By putting forward its “right of pre-emption”, an initiative which according to several analysts, notably those from Standard & Poor's Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, could not hold water due to cash flow tensions inherited from the fallen regime, the Gabonese state which has since handed over to his secular arm in the oil sector, surely did not imagine such difficulties. Floundering between political will and economic reality, this operation seems to be in trouble and could further undermine our economic prospects, not for its irrelevance, but rather for the conditions that should be offered by investors in a context slowdown in global economic growth.
Only three weeks left to raise the equivalent of 7% of GDP
The Gabonese state which is trying to “call on trading companies to help it finance a 1.3 billion dollar agreement for the Carlyle fund's Assala oil company” confirming its cash flow difficulties and investors' uncertainties as to in our situation, is currently trying to complete this operation which is ultimately not as simple as that. With less than a month to find 1.2 or even 1.3 billion US dollars, the equivalent of 7% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the pressure increases a little more every day on the shoulders of resource people, in charge of this file which could have been discussed and handled differently in view of the emergencies of the day, particularly in terms of infrastructure.