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I first bought here in 2006 and I've covered every step of the way. Some aerospace companies can be both hidebound and bureaucratic. Just getting on to the approved supplier list took many years and inspections from airbus. They had to approve both the premises and also our production processes first - never mind the product! In addition airbus and Leonardo don't actually make most of the parts themselves but they are assemblers and so suppliers to them are involved. Fortunately our process needs little alteration from the original product specification but still all of them had to be involved. Similar with Leonardo and they also wanted testing on their own rig but this was often prebooked for other tests. If you want more detail you can read the relevant RNSs released at the time. However if you consider BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin they took, I think, around a year or so.
However all the companies would have been aware of the price range of HDD's coating before starting testing. We have no direct competitor and are truly unique so there would be no reason for us to reduce our margins. Our pricing power is secure.
However if you consider the length of time that airbus and Leonardo spent testing perhaps this, in fact, demonstrates the importance they attach to HDD?
Well spotted goneawol and any thanks for the link - just the sort of publicity we need - perhaps it won't be jam tomorrow at the next AGM but chocolate mousse!!!
I'm guessing margins are commercially sensitive but take heart from the fact that a revenue increase last year of 3.27 Mill translated into a bottom line improvement of 2.89 Mill. Contracts and revenue are all important at this stage. They do comment on increases in game development - can't quite see what else there is report. Difficult to see how we can slip back to losses now.
Hallo tbow112, Have you considered that the opposite may apply!
The extraordinarily long time for approvals surely indicates that the aerospace industry does indeed attach much importance to Hardide products and that, in consequence, the company will maintain its pricing power.
I use IWeb. Never had a problem and even get good prices on out of hour ordering - and only £5 a pop once your set up!
Hi john, well yes luck more than skill I reckon. From my perspective this is a calculated gamble and I never could count!
Hi Riche, What was the trust and confidence that was lost by the last Chairman? I most certainly agree that there were a slew of delays but HDD were passengers in the airbus(13 Yrs.) and Leonardo (7-8 Yrs.) protracted in house procedures. Covid was both unexpected and a worldwide disruption.
HDD is a bit of a guessing game/juggling act. One reason is the lead time of a year between ordering reactors and installing the and the aforementioned customer testing delays are another.
The turbine customers made quicker decisions, only some 3 years or so, but that was helped by HDD commissioning and paying for certain independent testing off their own back and making it available. A wise move in my book. However we now see to be getting out of the woods - onwards and upwards from now on.
For my own clarification I've revisited the various RNS's. In September '19 Fox launched UNCITAL Arbitration proceedings against the Kosova government. In December '20 Fox announced the appointment of Dentons Solicitors to act for Fox and outlined the " no win no fee arrangement" This in my book was a massive achievement. Dentons are the worlds largest solicitors by numbers.
In March '21 Sir Simon Nesbit Joined the fray to work with Dentons. He is a specialist and only works in the field of international arbitration. In May 21 Samuel Wordsworth QC was engaged to provide Counsels Opinion. In September '21 he delivered a positive verdict. He is highly regarded in his field of international tribunals and is often employed by governments.
All of the above are absolutely top draw and Chis Gilbert has my admiration for persevering and building this team.
In March '22 Sir Mark Grant was appointed a NED. This is in my opinion firmly to do with the RTO only. One common feature is that not only is he also top draw but if there was no merit in the RTO he wouldn't be here, so well done CG for recruiting him.
Now I've done that bit of research I feel a lot more encouraged!! We might even make it!!!
Positive as always but with a bit of substance recently. SP is gently rising although a long way to go to reach the almost 50p at the years beginning. I went to the September 21 AGM and ST spoke of 2 fairly close contracts and the current one in the Middle East was one of them. Now if that 2nd one comes good before year end and we can get a milestone payment in before March what price the SP then?
This is a real shot in the arm. Just re-read the trading update released on the 13th. Because of the various delays last year that should translate into revenue this year I think we've got a record year on our hands. For me the proof of the pudding will be orders for new reactors - importantly the larger one!
One curiosity is that Leonardo was not mentioned in the update which was only a fortnight ago and as they've received the parts already they must have had at least an inkling?
Last year the interims were close to the previous full year. My believe is that we need to demonstrate that we can replace the Covid revenues with core product sales. We need to demonstrate that the covid money was spent wisely. If we can get into the low teens - 14-15 Mill say - then we're home and dry. If it's lower but we can demonstrate quarter on quarter growth then we may have to wait for the full year figures. I think it's as simple as that, I can't think of any other drag.
One of the plus points rarely mentioned is that although we have increased our cost base by recent hirings decisions our actual cost base is largely fixed - we do not need to purchase any raw materials or need extra production space beyond those actual hirings. We seem to be getting contracts, which although not massive, will inevitably start to feed into the bottom line.
Should either the DoseMeRex and/or the Portsmouth Trial come to fruition then these more commercial ventures could add directly to profits.
Totally agree GLTrader, Just did a small top-up yesterday. Like most people I have no idea why the SP is so low but I'm taking advantage! The move to new premises shows confidence and all our territories seem to be growing - both in geography and products. Breakeven and/or profits are now looking likely in the next financial year and we will then get a major re-rate. Onwards and upwards folks!
Exactly right Hardboy, Which is why I posted that we need a new MDM contract before xmas and get the first milestone payment before March. Future years revenue are, in my book, a forgone conclusion!
Hi Siennaj, 2 recent October RNS's were both new contracts - 1 with a new lead customer, CRUK and 1 repeat contract with Numad. They seem to find us credible, not to sure your point?
Indeed it is a great milestone - and it only took 14 years or so! Leonardo is some 9 years or so and I don't think we've actually done a gear box yet and it wasn't even mentioned !
However the newer applications that could be big such as Turbine blades seem to come through quicker but we've only got 1 larger reactor to accommodate the longer blades and it's some 12 months lead time for another one!
Not a lot seems to happen quickly with HDD. However, at long last, I do believe we are finally on a growth phase - it's just a question of time folks!
Interim revenue of 2.7 Mill revenue means annual revenue of 5 Mill is not great but this puts pressure on the current interim revenue. Providing the delayed payments come in we need around 4.5 Mill I reckon. The tail effects of the pandemic is starting to drop off and our product is a money saver for the bulk of our customers so we should get increased production.
Perhaps this half year to March will set the scene for a record year towards breakeven next September? Dare to dream! is the illakes the interii
Hi Richie - a good spot. Yes it seems pretty much a given that the coatings are superior to most other coatings but I'm not too sure why we're not starting to get the revenues up. O & G must be on the up and the planes are flying again plus the turbine blade coatings should perhaps have been increasing to name just a few. Fortunately as our revenues are largely US based the weak £ shouldn't be too much of a problem. We'll just have to play the long game for a bit longer I guess!
Thanks for the link niky, It just shows the lead times for HDD - 3 years to get to a point where we should start getting business. Not too sure when it will become meaningful business but as the song said "what's another year"!
Hi redjester, I'm afraid todays investors are sitting on their hands - as the Auction Houses used to say! Once the full year's figures are released the obvious high percentage of profit growth compared to revenue growth will become apparent. there is of course the ' stigma' of being a gambling stock which may reduce the MC but not the eventual divi's. This could become a high cash generator anyway as there's not a lot of debt and plenty of losses to offset tax on profits.
Interesting times ahead methinks.