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No, the RNS regarding the share award scheme said they would be admitted to trading today. This is completely separate to the suspension. They are part of the share count now, that's all it means. It was a generic RNS to give a date for the award shares to be admitted. The suspension is a completely separate thing which stops all shares being traded.
They wouldn't be able to give a trading day several days away from the RNS like that. If the deal isn't being pursued or we are not the bidder the RNS to resume trading will be the same day or evening before trading commences.
I'm amazed people thought it meant today was the day that shares would be trading again.
It will have no impact on your share count or anything like that. They have to suspend as the assets they are taking over are larger in value than the current Mcap under RTO rules. Your shares are still your shares just at whatever value they are worth when the shares are no longer suspended. There won't be any shares in other companies or more shares in your account or anything like that. The market cap will change either through debt or dilution but your personal share count won't.
I went through a similar thing with Rockrose several years ago. They suspended and took over a larger company. Everyone had the same share count when suspension was over but the company was worth a lot more. Suspended at about 815p and opened up several months later at 1,800p.
What we ideally want is to be preferred bidder and hopefully get a bit of a bargain. I think it'll be funded with debt if we do and the market cap rise or fall will be determined on the debt level or other conditions. Personally I don't hold much hope that we are the preferred bidder.
Rockrose was an awesome multibagger and the maker of my portfolio. They bought 20% of their stock back from institutions in one go as there was persistent selling. Brilliant move. I bought in under 600p and averaged down to the mid 500s. I went all in with my entire portfolio.
It was only several months later when the shares were suspended at about 850p for the RTO of Marathon oil. They reopened about 6 months later at a proce of 1,800p. I averaged up and bought more. Before Covid they hit 2,300 and a few nice dividends. I sold enough to put them on a free carry. Covid took it into the 400s again even though cash far exceeded market cap at this price. It rose to about 1,100 at which point an offer was made by another company to purchase Rockrose for 1,850p. These shares originally listed at 50p in about 2016 and I even think there was a dividend for 150p when the shares were 150p. A great investment for anyone in pre Marathon takeover.
The story didn't end there though. Andrew Austin then started Kistos in 2021 at 100p. I got in day one at 104p and was seriously considering an all in on it again due to the success of my Rockrose holding. I sold out completely at 290p and during the high gas prices it hit a price of around 650p. Another amazing multibag in short order for anyone in early. Andrew Austin is the guy that built my portfolio. So if we are following a Rockrose type rise I'm all for it.
What in God's name would posess you to short this in the first place?! It's clearly undervalued with news expected and we've had part of that news. The only time to short was when we went from the 30s to 20p. Must be mad to short in the low 20s. Also remember the directors themselves bought in repeatedly in the 30s.
BTW will you stop banging on about the debt. If you aren't invested in this then why keep posting here?! Oh yeah, your painful ridiculous short you still have running for some reason. Net debt when all this is complete will likely be less than $30M. There's got to be some debt hasn't there?! Otherwise how would they get any assets in the first place? It's a low level of debt for what will be a 6,000 bopd producer. Debt free in 2024. What's not to like?
Inflation data is key for where this goes in the short term. Looking at PPI which has plummeted I think we will see meaningful drops in the CPI level before the end of the year. There is a lag between the two, companies across the board are reporting that their material costs, etc have dropped. This will feed through. Supermarkets have finally dropped some prices, e.g. butter. Energy is still dropping. Commodities across the board are down. Just hope supply chains have been fixed post lockdowns.
This is also supply based inflation, not demand based. This makes raising interest rates to these levels even more idiotic. The BOE don't have a clue. With an overheated economy and demand based inflation then yes raising rates will work. The problem here is at the point of supply though, and it's all non discretionary. Supply chains were damaged from lockdowns. Interest rates beyond a certain point, which was already passed do not work on this type of inflation. It will come down naturally, rates should have gone to 3% and stayed there and we would still see inflation drop.
Now though we are at the point where high rates are themselves inflationary. Most companies carry debt, this debt needs servicing. If their debt payments increase due to high interest rates it will then get added to prices all through the supply chain. Hey presto, the method you are using to fight inflation ends up making it worse. Also many companies are tenants. Higher rates for the landlord gets passed on and yep, prices are increased by the companies to cover this. The BOE are brain dead if they keep raising from here.
People can just about manage higher costs in their shopping bills. They will adapt to the cheaper versions, cut back where they can, etc. Fuel has already come right down from the peak. One area they can't cut back on though is their mortgage payments when their deal runs out. Yes inflation is costing them a few hundred a month extra in groceries and utilities, but now you've doubled or even trebled the pain by adding several hundred to their mortgage. I'm sure most people would rather pay higher costs in the shops for a but longer than lose their homes.
On a side note my 5 year fix is due for renewal in Sept. I've managed to lock in a another 5 year fix at 3.85% which starts Sept. I can always not go through with this but it looks like I may have to for the security. Anyway, watch those inflation reports over the next few months and if they drop significantly we may get a pause in interest rates sooner than expected.
Why couldn't they have paid the recent dividend BEFORE the latest update. Having the pay date so long after the Ex date has left us missing out a fair bit of the rise on reinvestment. A dividend reinvested before the update 5 days ago would have gained 13%.
Think about it, how can the dividend be £3.3bn when the profit is £2.5bn. Basically it's not £3.3bn dividend. I think the figures you are using are total dividends combined to be that figure by the date in question, 2025 or whatever it is. Not the amount per year.
I did the opposite, I hovered over the buy button at 4p a couple of years ago. I've been following ARB for ages and was always looking for an entry and watching it hover around the 6p area. One day think maybe around Oct 2020 when the whole market had a wobble I had about £40k in my portfolio. Right, sod it I thought, I'm grabbing 1 million shares and just leaving it.
However something just stopped me at the last minute. I've gone all in on stocks before and made decent amounts. I think I was just never sold on Crypto and BTC. I could see the money being made but always thought it was a giant Ponzi scheme.
Anyway, I went as big as I could into Shell instead around 875p. Although that turned into a great and obviously no brainer trade watching ARB rise in Dec 2021 made me kick myself. I told others and they got in ARB below 20p but now my portfolio was all invested in other companies, mainly Shell and I just couldn't buy with it 400% up from when I would have first bought.
The big question is if I bought those million shares would I have held on? I doubt I could have got much past 20p. Very very good profit and there's no way on Earth I would have not sold the lot at 100p and a £1 million valuation and totally walked away from it. To me that's financial independence. £1 million into divi stocks and take a grand a week tax free dividends in my ISA. I'm not greedy lol.
Anyway I've kicked myself for ages for not taking the plunge, even though I knew the price in the 100s and above was utter madness at the time. Yeah I was sat there watching it causally trade around 230p and thinking I could be bloody retired by now! All these people just buying in and I've watched this thing for years. Well seeing the drop back gives me no cause for celebration, I'm sorry to all holders, especially those that have lost large paper profits on top of their losses. Always take a decent profit when you have so much in one stock.
Averaging down is only worth it when the company fundentals are solid and it is a short term blip with either the sector, whole market or a temporary set back at the company. Vodafone isn't where it is due to any of these.
The fact is if you don't believe in the company then you shouldn't hold it at all. If you are holding then there must be a reason? Sitting on a paper loss isn't a reason to carry on holding. If the company is no longer a solid investment then sell as it is usually better to cut your losses. Holding a loser has an opportunity cost as that money can be put to work elsewhere. If you still think the company is a great investment then buying when it's cheaper should be welcomed by you, so you should average down. You're now getting shares cheaper than you previously did in a company that you regard as a solid investment, surely that's a good thing? The point is that if you aren't prepared to average down and buy cheaper in every stock you own then you need to ask yourself if you should be holding them at all.
I averaged down in Shell during 2020. At 875p that was a no brainer. It was a temporary issue with the entire sector and guaranteed to come back. I threw the kitchen sink at it and the price was a blessing not something to be feared. I knew buying Shell at that price was a once on a lifetime opportunity and would make me a lot of money. The losers were those that were selling at multi decade lows in a solid company. That's the perfect average down. My investment case in Shell didn't change because of a temporary global problem. But that's Shell and this is Vodafone and it's up to you to work out if Vodafone is a solid investment with a bright future or a dog that you should leave.
The housing market hasn't peaked. People have been saying that for decades. It may stall or even a small decline but as time moves on it will still grind away upwards in the long term. There is simply too much demand in the UK and there always will be unless there's a big drop in population.
Interest rates of a few percent will also not stop people buying a house. They want home ownership regardless, only when rates get high will people think twice or they don't pass affordability criteria. That isn't happening below 5% as it's still historically low and Persimmon properties are priced below the national average anyway. Doesn't everyone also say that buying is now cheaper than than renting? So why would they put buying off because their other bills have gone up?
Also all this recession talk. We currently have more jobs available than there are people in employment. It will be a strange recession under those circumstances. People will cut some things back but I'm more optimistic looking forward over the next few years.
A big difference between the current global inflation and previous local inflation to certain countries is the cause. This inflation isn't caused by an overheated economy and cheap credit. It's caused by expensive commodities and damaged supply chains post global Lockdowns. Also big demand for raw materials in the developing world.
What this essentially means is that raising interest rates to combat global inflation caused at the commodity stage is mostly pointless. The policy makers are using the wrong strategy purely based on the theory that higher interest rates lower inflation. This works when inflation is a result of over consumption, not when people are actually cutting everything back. All it will do is cause a recession which will then trigger them to cut rates again. They will end up going around in circles due to using the wrong treatment to combat inflation.
The only benefit of raising interest rates for this unique type of inflation is to strengthen the currency as it will make commodities slightly cheaper due to the exchange rate. The problem is that this is only a marginal benefit and as the US are raising rates also, at an even larger rate then all we are doing is trying to keep the current parity which won't lower prices.
Thronegames, you may not be aware of it but IMB don't pay 4 equal dividends over the 4 quarters. I used to be a holder. They always have two small dividends and two larger dividends per year. Watch what happens after they pay the next two large ones, the two after will be nearly half as much. You need to just look at their dividend as an annual dividend and work out the dividend increase from there. Don't ask me why they do this but they just do.
I see this as a massive opportunity. Not only that but as a long term holder a share price drop is a good thing, so long as the company and dividend is secure. Both of these are in my opinion. I re-invest all dividends so a share price drop just means more shares for free on dividend pay day. The share price only matters to me when it comes time to sell. That's all it is, an offer for your shares. If the offer is rubbish then ignore it and sit back and watch your share count grow. When the offer becomes more than you think it's actually worth then you sell. Don't panic people, sit on your hands and check your holding at the end of the year.
I think history will mark them down as two of the greatest leaders of the century. Im not joking.