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New update from Brevarthan Research...link here..

https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil

Adds the comments from mgmt from the earlier post and some further thoughts....

https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/victoria-plc-company-responses-to

Another day another downgrade....First Moody's and now S&P. No RNS for either though, despite the one celebrating the prior stable rating from Fitch.... Rather a selective approach, n'est ce pas?

The family just keeps on getting larger. It seems VCP missed a trick on not buying out Qasim Karim's business too. Another one for GT not to audit....

https://www.ft.com/content/49b2d1d2-7c17-4d7c-ac9f-1e1db8540c18

It really is amazing that any company managed to get an unqualifed audit report during Covid, including all of VCP's other UK subsidiaries, and Headlam, in its sector, apart from Ezifloor....Just bad luck I guess.

Https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/victoria-plc-questions-for-the-auditors

Still waiting for an audit appointment announcement. I guess we will know by Friday! Not sure how a listed entity can carry out without an auditor...

Yeah those ratings agencies are definitely ahead of the curve. After they called the subprime crisis didn't they? Didn't they?!!

Brevarthan Research out with note. Focus on inventory level and current ratio. https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/naked-wine

An RBL (Reserves Based Lending) on contingent resources? Seriously?! Find me the bank that will do that and I will short it. They already admitted on the call that they couldn't do a farm out. So yes, billions of shares is the only way. Remember this company started out in 2006 with about 15 million shares on listing. Now 900 million. Only one way....

Don't say you weren't warned. Brevarthan Research, Oilman Jim and others all pointed out the hot air in this one. Note how Scot and the other paid promoters have disappeared. The company appeared to raise money recently on false pretences. None of this acreage is remotely commercial, and it never will be. Anyone expecting recoverable reserves at $5 a barrel in 2028 is deluding themselves. And at any rate, if there are nearly 1 bn shares out now, there will be 10 bn shares outstanding by then if not more. Thats the way it works....All you are doing is paying Jay's pension. And note that this last webinar was notable for the absence of the Great Bear promoters, Bob Rosenthal, Ed Duncan. No Michael Duncan either for that rate....

Ahh yes. Remember the earlier CPR's for Genel, or Hurricane, or Oilexco, or Oryx Petroleum. Or any number of shale oil companies you care to mention. These pristine reports presaged oil riches and then led to perdition for people that followed them. Do you really feel these reservoir auditors work for shareholders or the management they are paid by?! Ditto SLB.

I think you can presume that he has already cashed in most of his short. Up to you what you think of the work but suggest you read it first.

Note out on PANR from Brevarthan. Some geo thoughts on Alkaid 2 and a reprise of the company's history/position. https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/pantheon-resources-panrl-panr-ln

New update from Brevarthan Research, https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/serica-energy, twitter @hedgewatch1. See stock worth >500p, Kistos bid highly opportunistic. Believe Serica waiting for results of North Eigg before returning cash to shareholders.

Its clear that this merger is a way to save Tullow from its follies in Ghana, and throw Capricorns cash into Ghana's $400m tax claim and good money after bad in declining fields. You'd expect Capricorn shareholders to earn a premium for that (the mirror of a discount for a Tullow rights issue) but no. Stinks.

Doesn't help a company like Hurricane which is in net liquidation. Means an immediate tax on ebitda minus what ever capex they cobble together, but no well programme planned yet.

The windfall tax cannot use past tax losses to offset it so its a 25% effective tax on Hurricane's cashflow unless they invest heavily. Surprised it hasn't sold off on this. See HM Treasury Technical note. Hurricane will now be a 25% cash tax payer.

Good to see 5% of the company about to be equitised by conversion of mgmt share options, days after the 2 webinars. I'm sure if they are confident about Alkaid etc not a single share will be sold. ;)

Also everyone on here - dont you find it at all interesting that in April the appropriate analogue field was the conventional Tarn field (which required only a few wells to drill out) and now all of the sudden the analogue in this presentation is full scale shale development in the permian Delaware basin (requiring 1000s of wells to drill out, and decades of drilling history and well control)...

Note to others - yes agreed sidewall cores drilled out at Talitha A and previously at Alkaid, with pretty low indicated perm (eg range 0.01-0.1md )... see Aug 21 Webinar. No sidewall cores at Theta West from what i can see.