RE: Solvent ?5 Jul 2021 12:54
I think it was mid 80s. Mgmt took a more benign view of the P6 decline than ERCE. I've gone with ERCE. If you look at where water cut has gone since ERCE CPR its roughly in line with their mid case, although crossing from below expected water cut to above which is a trend to watch. Ultimately given production plan, and pressure management, the more water, the less oil. Other factors of course are the ESP and its ongoing integrity, and any additional costs to factor in from the court case that Hurricane shareholders will now have to pay for (including CA costs). The final factor which is unknown is what happens with the Aoka Mizu. Obviously as things stand day rate has tripled. It may be that an ad hoc arrangement post expiry of the Bluewater contract will be reached. I agree with the "hodlers" that it is in Bluewater's interest to come to some sort of ad hoc extension.