The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
The idea that Pantheon's gas will end up down a 1300km pipeline (newly built) to a spanking new LNG plant in South Alaska is bonkers. But please continue to pump it!
Well we are past half term now, people are back from their ski holidays and Pantheon's cash in the bank must be dwindling. Won't be long now before the charity tin comes out again. Cash must be getting tight based on historic burn rates.
We don't yet know the terms of the Glencore loan or any security they have. Remember they have the offtake agreement which effectively gives them a (modest) share of revenue. That could be quite valuable depending on the terms or spread.
Important to have access to lifting data to scope out more recent production. Eg Argus etc. Based on that I don't see January being up from December. Unless there's more oil slopping around in the bottom of the FPSO.
Here's a bit of FUD for you pumpsters.... Getting Jubilee production sustainably above 100kbopd is going to require some stronger meds. And this year the meds are getting weaker....
https://open.substack.com/pub/brevarthanresearch/p/tullow-oil-tlw-ln-tlwl?r=72t3g&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The non-operating portfolio is the sum of Gabon and Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast is basically dead so its mostly Gabon. Its noticeably down vs 2023. There are no missing barrels. In fact some might argue that there are fantasy extra barrels.
@JMAX: here's last years press release for reference:
3 August 2023 - Tullow is pleased to announce, alongside its joint venture partners, that it has agreed an amendment to the Interim Gas Sales Agreement in Ghana. The amended agreement is valued at $2.90/mmbtu, utilising the price for Jubilee gas referenced in the 2017 Jubilee Plan of Development.
This agreement is expected to continue until the end of the third quarter of 2023. An agreement on acceptable commercial terms for export of future long-term volumes of Jubilee and TEN gas is in progress for completion by that time.
Current export volumes are c.100 mmscf/d. The pricing remains lower than the weighted average price of other sources of gas in Ghana, underscoring Tullow's commitment to the economic development of its host nation.
No it is converted into barrels of oil equivalent on a calorie equivalent basis, ie approx 6 mcf per boe. At $2.9/mmbtu thats $17.4/barrel of oil equivalent. See the RNS on it last year.
No - the gas has a fraction of the value of the oil - you can see the terms on Tullow's previous releases.
@scrodingerscat... Sure if it was purely a water injection issue then fine, everything is hunky dory. But I note gas production steadily rose in the period when oil production fell since Sept 2023. The steady decline from peak in Sept and this gas production rise is not indicative of technical issues around water injection. But the market clearly agrees with you, and not me so far today, so chapeau! as they say in France. Just remember that the co has told brokers there is no allowance for maintenance in 2024 guidance so it all looks pretty high wire act to me. I'm just content that the original estimates in the written paper were correct.
@Bloodyredbaron. Production for H2 at Jubilee net to Tullow was 36.6. So not sure how 39 can be "on track". Looks dubious to me. In reality rather than going up 15-20% in 2023, production at Jubilee actually fell slightly vs 2022
Guidance for 2023 by Tullow in Jan last year for Jubilee was 37. Yet the outcome was 32.4. That's quite the miss no? Seasonal or otherwise. And you believe this year's 39 guidance will magically end up too low?! And you are calling me a clown? Why the Trump-like language? Does it make you feel better to attack people rather than engage in a constructive dialogue?
"Seasonal dip"? Why.... Do they shut the field in for Christmas?! Btw - November was 91.6kbopd, and October was 96kbopd.... Why is that seasonal? What is clownish about that?
Exited 2023 (ie December) at 89.6kbopd per Ghana govt... Not a strong finish...
Ad hominem attacks belie poor underlying arguments. Have the company ever been modest with the upper bound. They missed the lower bound in 2023 by 1kbopd. They are exiting 2023 at 90ish at jubilee. How are they going to average 100 at jubilee in 2024. 3 producers for jubs might average 21 for the year at best if you started them off "yesterday" - but they are not completed yet... decline on 90ish would be conservatively 20% so roughly 72 from base plus "less than 21" for timing reasons gets you to around 90 for 2024 "at best". Note also that FCF target of 800 for 2023-5 not moved up despite "outperforming" in 2023 - effectively means a cut in 24-25.
Take what you want from this - 57kbopd for 2023 confirms a very low exit for jubilee in 2023. The fact that the trading statement changes format from last year and that they won't even break out 2023 production by field tells you all you need to know. Why the change in format and the omission of past info? Also - feel free to do the maths - the individual field guidances add up to more than the middle of the range for the company - historically they added up to squarely in the middle - so lots of fudging going on even at the field level. Middle of the range would leave Jubilee in the mid 90s...
Goethe is a NED. He would be only allowed to trade when not privy to insider information. Anyway - who knows. But feel free to back out the production guidance (below bottom of range for the year ie 57ish) and then triangulate Jubilee from there going into year end. Very hard to get it anywhere near 100kbopd. Even so, perhaps water injectors still delayed and it goes gangbusters again.... but for me this is less likely than the other eventuality. Takes two to make a market though and therein lies the fun in this sort of guesstimation....
That was an earlier post. This is the latest post:
https://open.substack.com/pub/brevarthanresearch/p/tullow-oil-905?r=72t3g&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcome=true
They do quote that. And indeed it was around 100 in September. But since then it has come off. Read the report. And cross reference with the revised guidance from Tullow in November.
New update from Brevarthan Research...link here..
https://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil