Member Info for triumph1

Agreed there is scope for maneuver for this if returns come endemic.

I guess they have to tread carefully though. It's a fine line between tightening policy and angering the market they have created for themselves.

You have to think that for each user account, there has to be statistics on this user regarding purchases, number & nature of returns and profitability of that account, I.e. unit economies. If a user account falls below x, policy can be tightened to weed out these accounts and improve unit economics. After all, an account that loses you money is pointless to keep. Only boohoo know the exact dynamic of this issue, but if postage stays high the customer may be a little more lenient; almost expecting it if you like. Maybe now is the time to act?

ABF heyday was back in the naughties before it hit the buffers in 12'-13'. Since then it has done nothing but dissapoint. Can't see anything material that has changed there other than the same management waffle about rejuvenated growth that has failed to materialise for a decade. Why should now be different??

They are going through a transitory period of their own. Finally just about recovering from losses made from covid before resuming down. Boohoo is opposite, in a lull period until headwinds ease....which they will.

The troll has been trolling boohoo for years. I guess a stopped clock gets it right twice a day.

The whole debate about returns is very knee jerk. We cannot exactly call this a trend yet so any action the company take would certainly rock the boat. However if it becomes a trend, then there are a couple of solutions to combat this.

1) monitor accounts for abuse of this. These customers have absolutely no benefit to the customer so why do business with them. Something like 10 returns a month should be a massive red flag so an account ban should happen. Win win for boohoo as it passes the problem on to competitors.

2) fair use policy. I can see this course of action being implemented if returns remain high. Of course unlimited returns for damaged items will remain, but for items not damaged, this could work. They can also guise it as doing good for the environment, so again a win win for boohoo. Weed out the non profitable customers abusing returns. Customers that purposely damage items to return can be weeded out by statistics. Of course if one company implements this, I think it will cascade to others as no company likes this perk they have created themselves.

Then there is the arguement of you made your own bed, so lie in it.

Come on then, hands up. Who sold out yesterday afternoon in the hope of this tanking and had to buy back higher today?

Fantastic day with plenty more to go. Shorts are feeling the burn.

To continue to grow in the US shows how infrastructure is vital. Margin degradation less, trading as expected and no downgrades. Boohoo take head! Everyone was expecting a boohoo style forecast miss....forgetting asos is a different animal with infrastructure in place and at a far more mature stage. Bring on £30

Well done to those who held! Unlucky to the shorts lol

The troll is a failed seller of military tat on ebay. Makes sense kallu sells old tat no one wants. A bit of an old relic himself no one wants around. The way he goes on about old-school businesses which are going through a transient period, just like online are but are out of phase 180°. Call it the last 'hurrah' if you like before the slow and certain decline of brick and mortar retail whilst online will continue it's upward march.

Actually trying to argue that primark is more trendy than boohoo is pure trollery. I have it on good authority that the age bracket in question "wouldn't be seen dead" in primark gear and that it is a "form of social suicide" to be seen in primark attire. Not my words! Once you get to your 30s it becomes a little less incredulous to be seen with a primark hoodie, but certainly have no primark gear in my wardrobe (except for one of those cheap ass suitcases you get for 30 quid where the wheels come off on the way to the checkout). Not saying boohoo quality is better or worse, but you cant argue that it is 10000x more fashionable. And fashion sells haven't you noticed....

Stocks are at their most dangerous when consensus believe a movement is a "sure thing". I always play against the herd and have been rewarded far more times than lost. ASOS could catch everyone off guard tomorrow! Can't see how any forward statements could make much more of a difference considering everyone and their pets know about the headwinds, so not exactly a surprise to hear asos report about them either.

At 15%, I believe the owner has the right to apply to court to object to a variation of share class rights. Judging by the sale, t.rowe want to stay just below this threshold to avoid any responsibility within the company itself

Not surprised at this dropping back this afternoon given the history of this stock tanking on results.

Let's hope results are decent and forward statement as expected. Then surely this stock will go up with a little tailwind from wider market

If forward statements are the same or similar to others in the sector, growth holding up well and the traders/bedwetters want to sell their holdings tomorrow and cause this to dip 10%+, I'll be lapping them up. Whatever happens tomorrow, unless ASOS have been particularly affected which doesn't seem likely, its a win win situation for me.

Downside risk comes from forward statements. However the challenges the sector faces are extremely well documented and several companies have already reported challenges faced in the coming 12 months. So ask yourself why, when it is very obvious that ASOS will have the same problems, will this cause a drop unless they are affected particularly bad which is unlikely. Nothing is going to be new news RE forward statements, so this will cause perhaps a minor blip from traders/bedwetters but that's about it.

Positive things can be growth holding up well in key geographies, especially US where infrastructure is in place, so growth should really be holding in these regions. Also an update from finding a CEO should be forthcoming.

To summarise, unless something unexpected is reported that has not already been documented by other companies regarding the challenges faced in 12 months, you shouldn't worry too much about forward statements. Things to watch are growth in key regions and how well they are holding up compared to boohoo for example, particularly in regions where they are not relying on expensive air freight like the US. Also I am expecting margin degradation to be less because of this. If ASOS is holding up well, the SP will rerate as currently, the company is priced for the worst outcome. Guilty until proven innocent!

The market loves punishing traders that think an outcome is obvious. So I won't be selling this afternoon and trying my luck in the morning.

GLA

Kallu is definitely one to be binned. Applying old world metrics to new world stocks is as much use as replacing an f1 car with a steam engine.

Maybe what he says can be related to other stocks like SHOE, ABF, TATE, NG ect but this poster lacks the knowledge of what growth companies are about, and perhaps a bit miffed about missing the decade long bull run in growth. That and the poster is a few shillings short of a pound. Nice to see this particular poster to not spam the board so much.

It's easy to spot those posters with genuine concerns and grievances (there are many) and just as easy to spot trolls who try to trade this and fill the board with bile depending on what side of the fence they are on.

Double bottom would be a nice indicator of a base at least....assuming results are at least what the market expects and doesnt cause the SP to crater further. After all we are not exactly priced for glory and fully expect forward statements similar to that of boohoos in terms of headwinds ect. ASOS growth should hold up better than boohoo though due to having infrastructure on the ground in key geographies such as US.

If this went sub 20 before results I would certainly buy more. The way today went, its not beyond the realms of possibility for this to happen. Dreadful day for online companies for little apparent reason.

Is that a boohoo positive point kallu? My goodness, finally jumped abord?

Maybe your downtime has finally made you see sense?

Indeed. I was in SGC, NEX, MAB, MARS all at their very bottom. It felt very similar to this, utter despair and frustration. But with these companies, things at that time were far more uncertain as anything could have happened. ASOS, BOO ect are actually solid companies in a much better position than companies back then
and have just experienced a temporary slowdown and squeezed margins due to record headwinds. Soon as things ease, these companies have nowhere else to go but up, just as travel and hospitality did back on that faithful day in Nov 2020 when everything boomed.

Similar will happen here. Bravery and patience required is all. Easier said than done though with days like today.

Lol nice try maxage. Not saying £1 won't be retested, but it's not happening today. 15% drop for a 1.3bn company in one day for no reason? I certainly wouldn't mind a second bite of the cherry sub £1 for a medium term mean reversion recovery play so bring it on.

Despite the extreme value to be had with boohoo and asos, negative sentiment still hasn't been shaken and inflation panic is still in the air.

Another horrific day for uk online retail for no specific reason other than some words that was said half a world away. Drop massively magnified by sentiment today, and next results were decent so bodes well for asos with infrastructure in place in key regions.

Not sure I am confident enough to top up further pre results however despite the urge as I have a fair amount in boohoo at the moment too. These companies just cant seem to please these days and no doubt will sell off even if they post 100% growth lol. I'll see the results first before buying more.

Online sales growth vs retail.....says it all really. Some really good numbers from next today, but still down.

Online retail just can't catch a break despite break neck growth

Spot on RTN. Only the most basic TA such as SMA, RSI, psychological numbers such as whole numbers, previous stock peaks/troughs, very obvious channels or when two of these indicators intercept are of any use real use due to their self fulfilling nature when selecting a buy/sell point, and only in the absence of any fundamental news on the horizon.

However the usefulness of the most basic and well known TA rapidly loses its self fulfilling prophecies when you try to make things more complicated as less people will know about it. Humans have an amazing ability to create organisation from chaos and some are better than others at doing so, but this doesn't give them powers to predict the future or have any greater insight into the future, it only allows them to make the past look more explicable which in this game is not very helpful.

And of course, when fundamentals come into play, TA goes out of the window. It may give you an indication of how high or low things can go if there is a well known technical indicator nearby like an SMA, but that's about it.