Concerns Over Ore Supply Tightness Highlight Supply Fragility, Tin Prices Continue to Shift Upward12 Dec 2025 19:00
Dec 12, 2025 11:26
Recently, tin prices have started a continuous upward trend, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract breaking through the 330,000 yuan mark, hitting a new high since March 2022, and market bullish sentiment is strong. This round of price increases is not driven by a single factor, but rather the result of multiple forces intertwining, including escalating geopolitical conflicts, unresolved supply bottlenecks at the mine end, support from low inventories, and boosted capital sentiment.
Recently, the geopolitical situation in eastern DRC has deteriorated sharply, becoming a major driver behind the surge in tin prices. The Bisie mine, located in North Kivu Province of DRC, is the world's third-largest tin mine (operated by Alphamin Resources). Its 2024 production reached 17,300 mt, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin mine supply and over 80% of DRC's total tin mine production. The production stability of the Bisie tin mine has been affected multiple times by the domestic armed rebel group "M23". In March 2025, due to armed conflict approaching the mining area, the Bisie tin mine was once suspended, later gradually resuming operations in mid-April. Since November, the security situation in eastern DRC has deteriorated again, with fighting approaching the Bisie mine area, putting Alphamin at risk of a second production suspension. The Chinese embassy in DRC urgently issued reminders, requiring Chinese citizens and enterprises to immediately evacuate the high-risk eastern provinces. On December 4, although DRC President Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Kagame signed a peace agreement in Washington, factors such as incomplete disarmament of armed groups and disputes over mineral resource benefit distribution limited the agreement's actual binding force. Furthermore, clashes between DRC government forces and the "M23 movement" did not cease after the agreement was signed. Although the Bisie mine is not currently suspended, the large-scale evacuation of nationals has heightened market expectations of a supply chain disruption.