Member Info for tricky1276

Hi BlahBlah thanks for your reply , dishonest and unwise seem a bit strong .
Perhaps you have not read my post on the 30th where I state " stock markets have to be seen to be free fair and transparent otherwise they cannot function " . You state that the details are made public in fact they are not , we know the seller but we do not know the recipient. I wonder why ? Could they be associated companies so the apparent 10% loss for the seller would have no impact we will never know .
OFF the market institutions can get together and formulate a price to impose ON the market. 1.5% of the free float changed hands for a 10% drop in the sp on opening triggering stop losses. Is that free and fair? It amounts to manipulation . RNS after close on 24th - book build - RNS 25th done and dusted . Rollocks
The RNS on the 24th is IMO disingenuous they effectively state that the book build dates are flexible . The word "build "would imply a gradual process . When that RNS was issued they must have known the recipients of the shares ,it is possible that privileged inside information was circulating amongst some individuals that the SP would be mugged by 10% imminently , I am sure that you would know what could be done with that info by an unscrupulous person. As now there was then some large movement in the sp just prior to the 24th. In the absence of an RNS from the company it would be unusual for the sp to fall by 6% at one stage yesterday. I recognize that if those shares were dumped on the it would probably have triggered a larger fall , but at least we could have all participated that's what stock markets are for.
ATB

Interesting gyrations here , could this be the shenanigans before institutions in the know get together and arbitrarily knock 10% off the market cap to suit their own devices ? Some posters here seem to think that the quaintly named "secondary share placing " is normal and acceptable I believe it is just a con .
If a placing is announced I would take it as a great chance to add.

Old Guy ,from an older guy I reckon you are correct, the market gets carried away with itself in both directions but it seems to me that with a yield of over 10% and a strong business that any forward negative news is already well and truly catered for in the sp
About the worse thing that could happen would be a steep rise in interest rates - imo very unlikely because the BOE over the last two decades have shown themselves to be only capable of raising rates from next to nothing to next to nothing .
ATB

£ weakness is a positive here and I see it gaining momentum downwards . Recently added more SERE, in no hurry to take profit the div will get stronger in £ terms could get to 7.5%

I find the terminology JLP uses to describe their sites in Zambia a bit confusing . In the 1976 I was working for RCM at the Luanshya copper mine in northern Zambia not far from the then Zaire copper / cobalt rich region . Luanshya mine was always named as " Roan " and it was near to where the roan antelope was shot. Now they seem to be refering to Roan as being somewhere else
Luanshya mine was loss making but it was kept afloat by an associated shaft called Baluba which had ore incredibly rich in cobalt . The floatation methods were not very efficient so I would think that the dumps around Luanshya ( Roan as it was then ) would be very worthwhile processing for cobalt .

Yes indeed , as usual the key here is the mighty US$
Lets take an extreme ( but not impossible the way things are shaping up ) example . Suppose the African currencies stay stable against the $ while the £ declines by 50% . The profits reported by AAF will remain stable in $ terms , but all of a sudden those $ earnings will be worth a heck of lot more £'s.
Anyway not too serious. I am pretty sure that this company can at least keep up the present rate of earnings growth and even if the next reported earnings are only similar, at this sp it is seriously under valued.
ATB

Hi Highveld , not sure that you are correct. African currencies have done relatively well against the $ when compared with the performance of the "great" British £ . The gBP has fallen against the $ considerably of late and here aaf is quoted in gBP so the $ strength has helped the sp . After all when the £ weakens the FTSE 100 tends to rise because so many of the companies have $ earnings
The gBP is very likely to fall a lot further against the $ because a large % of the population cannot pay their bills as a result of the cost of living crisis . I am sure that the Government here is arrogant and hypocritical ( they cannot even obey their own laws ) enough to default on an international agreement with regards to the Northern Ireland protocol . When that happens a trade war with the EU will ensue and the £ will plummet further thereby strengthening the AAF sp.
ATB

On the AAF " share news " site here they state that the div will be 5 cents this year down from 6 cents last year . This is utterly incorrect the full year div is rising to 5 cents from 4 cents. In fact a very healthy increase . Maybe this is causing some confusion , but surely investors actually read the results ?

Probably concern for the cost of living and lack of disposable income in the population . But a lot of the purchases here will be for unavoidable essentials and during the shutdowns a lot of the population built up considerable savings so they might decide to to splash out for the home .
If the trading update towards the end of May confirms the the management outlook statement this will have a considerable re- rate.

Management made a positive outlook statement in the recent results and the div is well covered by profit so they will probably be able to at least maintain it at + 10p .
To an extent depends on " consumer " demand and the economy will probably be pretty woeful , but a lot of the spending here is non discretionary so that is a positive.
ATB
ATB

The market at long last seems to be waking up to the amazing growth prospects for this company .
Report on Bloomberg this morning that palladium will be in for a multi year price rise driven by shortages . The great thing about commodities is that the geniuses in the central banks cannot print them .
The question is, not what the production figures are for JLP today , rather what they will be in 2- 3 years .

Yes I suppose the Motley people are already invested. The situation in Nigeria would apply all providers of telephony so the impact on AAF should not effect its market share and as stated in the RNS the subscribers who have not provided their ID will probably shape up when they lose some of their services . Mobile phones are pretty much essential in Africa so politically it could be a very bad idea to over tax them.
Results are due shortly, they will probably provide more clarity
ATB

Hi BlahBlahDoh I agree with most of your comments and you certainly have a greater in depth knowledge of this company than I do so thank you for sharing it with us .
On a wider scale and not necessarily with regards to AAF, stock markets must be seen to be free fair and transparent otherwise they simply cannot function . If off the market institutions can get together and formulate a price to sell a relatively small amount of the free float and have an instant impact on the sp those institutions would have a disproportionate power over the market . IMO this would create distrust in a free and fair market and amount to manipulation .
I completely agree that eventually the sp will revert to the fundamentals of the company concerned

I am asking myself if in this " great " British transparent free and fair market is this share sp being manipulated ? Surely not, but it seems very strange that 1.6 % of the listed shares can be traded in a virtually instantaneous " book build " resulting in an instantaneous 10% fall in the in the sp and tripped stop losses for any holder foolish enough to place a stop loss.
We know who the " seller " was but we do not know who the recipient was , I wonder why ? Could they be associated companies so the apparent 10% paper loss for the seller would have no impact . The book build was announced after the market close one and by the next day it was accomplished , seems very strange the word " build " would imply a gradual process but here the " seller " and recipient were seemingly pre ordained .
I am super confident that our wonderful Financial Conduct Authority would have stringent rules in place to prevent such manipulation so no worries + it provides a great chance to pick up more shares at a 10% discount . Picked up quite at 70 after a similar fall some time back.
ATB

SLP down nearly 6% at the moment . Seems that JLP are doing spectacularly well
That said investors are behaving like frightened sheep at the moment .

Agreed ,about the only thing that has changed negatively is that the " consumer " African or not will have less disposable income as a result of higher inflation but I do not think that they will dump their phones in Africa I. I would imagine that they are far more essential there than in Europe . AAF is probably being hit by its higher profile in the FTSE 100 because trackers will be obliged to dump them . The only risers today are the metals and several large FTSE companies are having similar falls.

Should only be down on market sentiment , strange that this has fallen further than the market because so far as I can see this should not be directly impacted by the situation in Russia .
Probably due to the fact that this is a well traded volume stock at a relative high so there are more profit takers than buyers at the moment . let it settle for a while then add.

Seems to be undergoing a bit of a rerating . Strong broker ratings including one today . I think I will be holding for the div and beyond

Hi Paddy
Looks like I got it wrong I think it might be BMO commercial Property Trust BCPT . So many BMO's it is easy to get them mixed up . Maybe other investors got it wrong too because the rise did coincide with the news
ATB

been invested here for over a year but I must admit that I know nothing about mobile phones and I dont even own one but I do know that this company is in a substantial growth market and the management do know about mobile phones.
The recent sudden fall took me by surprise , I wonder if it is the result of all the publicity about 5g ( whatever that is ? ) having an impact on aircraft instrumentation , seems a coincidence that the fall came at the same time . Perhaps someone that does know about mobile phones could advise ?