RE: What will the next SP moving News Be ?4 Feb 2021 18:26
When I read these sorts of posts, I am always reminded of Warren Buffett's sound investment advice - "Never invest in something you don't understand."
ReNeuron has managed to persuade generations of punters to fund the company over the last 20+years, in the process destroying huge amounts of capital. The ultimate demonstration of this destruction being the abandonment internal development of their lead program in stroke after spending probably £40million and 7 years of effort in the indication. Oh yes, and halfway through an expensive phase 2b study. According to the open offer document, a further £4million of the recently raised capital is required to close off the "legacy commitments!" Of course we are told it's a change of strategy - by the same people responsible for the original strategy!
The exosome program is preclinical. The chance of even a small molecule preclinical drug making it to market is 1.in 5,000 and exosomes are a novel biologic which is riskier. Let's be generous and say they have 5 candidates - that"s a 0.1% chance of success.
The RP program is fraught with risk. The sample size in the phase2a is tiny - we learn that one patient in the trial had a huge improvement in the untreated eye over the treated eye.while another permanently lost significant vision as result of the operation. They are also changing the surgical technique in the extension study - which introduces further risk. Even if ReNeuron get decent results in the extension there is significant regulatory risk. The FDA has still not approved a new cell therapy, despite stem cells being researched for the last 20 years. There is also competitor risk. jCyte are ahead and will beat ReNeuron to market. They may be granted biologic exclusivity for hRPC cells which carries 12 years of exclusivity. Of course, Olav states that the two cells are 'not the same" and he doesn't believe ReNeron would be affected by a marketing approval for jCyte BUT that's just his opinion and the FDA have a habit of wrongfooting pharma CEOs.
Sorry to burst a few bubbles here but new investors need to understand how risky this stock is. Of course, some will say that the directors have invested a significant sum so the share price is secure. Perhaps the directors who paid £2+ for a shares in 2019 will be able to answer that point! I would also pount out that the CEO and CFO were rather shy with their own money when you check the open offer RNS.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
