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Following on from what I was saying earlier, retail seem to be the ones that have been hit the hardest since July but just so you can see its not just ASOS look at the following :-
EZJ - £3.93 19/7 - £3.50 today
MKS - £143 21/7 - £112 today
OCDO - £7.91 22/7 - £6.05 today
BOO - £0.68 25/7 - £0.41 today
THG - £0.77 18/7 - £0.40 today
I can't be bothered working out the percentage falls for each one but you can see just from the select companies mentioned the general trend is down - ASOS is no better/worse in my book.
Was £8.38 on 30/6 and there were signs that the shorters were starting to close as it gradually rose to £11.57 by the 22/7 - the sell off started not long after the extended conservative leadership race started - ie shorters taking advantage that no-one was steering SS GB
Scallop - I agree re the budget and I think that may be the thing that makes the tide turn - I've said loads of times that the shorters have just taken advantage of the Governments inaction in respect of the energy crisis and once that gets sorted consumer confidence will return and that's when I expect the share price to start recovering quite quickly here mainly because there's not many shares on issue so it will get harder for the shorts to start buying back once volume returns. Normally the markets are forward looking by 6 months so ordinarily I would have expected the share price to start recovering already but if you look at the graph here and on many other companies share price the decline has accelerated because of the uncertainty - it wasn't that long ago that the share price was £7 and it didn't take long (something like 2 weeks from memory which I will check) to have risen to £11.
I understand what you're saying Scallop but in a lot of cases they're buggered if they do, and buggered if they don't - if they come out with a statement about being confident going forward and then something outside their control happens then that would smash the share price down even more, if they say they're concerned at the outlook then the share price gets smashed again - for me I've just accepted that its just the current economic climate that's impacting here and things will change. I don't think ASC are alone with how much they've been hammered - ODO were £28 at peak covid and they're just about holding onto £6 at the minute - that's over 75%, Boohoo were something like £3.50 and they're now 40p odd - another over 75% down, THG, EZJ, IAG, MKS, CCL and the list goes on and on and on - and none of their boards are coming out with statements probably for the same reason. Hopefully we're near the end of the downtrend now.
I'm not sure what anyone would expect the Board to say - there's global effects that they have no control over and its just a question of waiting to see what the Government are going to do in respect of the energy crisis - anyone would think ASC is the only one being hammered - its across so many companies its unbelievable how many share prices are massively down.
I'm just basing my guesstimate on previous bounce backs and the level of shares on issue and number of shorts held. Every company reporting figures at the minute are saying that trade dropped off a cliff during August due to the uncertainty over the energy prices and quite rightly people were afraid to spend money when they thought their £100 per month bill was going to go up to potentially £400 - peak fear I'd call it and it didn't help that the Government were off on their leadership race.
All that uncertainty will go next week and people will start to look towards Xmas - websites are now already advertising Xmas and how many families will want to have a really good one after what's been happening this year and I suppose the last few years with covid. If there's also a positive outcome in respect of the Ukraine war we can start getting back to normal (whatever that is) again.
Survivor - you left a few out - financial crash, eurozone crisis before brexit so things have been quite tough at times but this is the hardest I've known it. The one good thing is the trading update and all the bad news is out - with the mini budget next week confirming that the energy price increases are being covered, confidence will return to the consumer especially as Xmas starts to come closer - all retailers are saying August especially has been hard so given the uncertainty going away with any luck any news coming out going forward will be that the people are spending again.
Personally I am hoping the share price bounces back quite strongly to around £18 by Xmas - be interesting to see how close I am with my guesstimate - anyone else want to have a guess?
Hopefully it won't be as long as a year and you can start trading the swings to recoup your losses a bit quicker - according to Bloomberg a few months ago they were saying that going on past patterns, the current bear market in the States should end around the 19/10 - if that does happen then we will follow I'm sure.
I wouldn't beat yourself up about it Scallop - so many people are in the same situation and if I'm being honest I've never seen such a prolonged downturn in the markets since I started trading. We must be near the bottom - there's light at the end of the tunnel - just from yesterdays press they are saying covid is now at a multi year low and that the rescue package for the energy crisis should see inflation drop to 5% pretty quickly. In addition, some military commentators are saying that the Ukraine war could be over by Xmas - so all positive catalysts for a turnaround to start to happen. It's just disheartening when you see good companies being hammered by 20% plus falls in a day just because the hedge funds know they can do that - just think of when the 20% daily gains return :-)
I can't disagree with a lot of what you are both saying but I also think it doesn't pay to be totally negative - economists are suggesting that the energy bailout package will have an instant impact on inflation and bring it down to around 5% - if that is the case (and I am one that believes in this) then the demands for higher pay rises instantly looses traction as there is no longer a reason for people to have big pay rises that if given at the moment would impact on salaries on a compounded basis and therefore inflation for years to come whereas the inflation problem could be shorter term if the magic bullet gets fired.
In addition, if it does turn out that the Ukraine war does indeed come to an end sooner rather than later which a lot of experienced ex military are suggesting (whilst acknowledging it could get a bit scarier in the short term due to Putin's instability) then that's another bit of uncertainty sorted.
I haven't said the decline in share price has been purely down to shorters, what I have said is they've taken advantage, not just with OCDO but with many other companies, to drive the share price down even further since June when all the talk about rising energy prices and the leadership contest following Boris' resignation started to hit fever pitch.
According to Bloomberg a while ago, and which I commented on here, they are saying that the "bear market" should end around the 19/10 which is based on previous history/bear market trends - if that turns out to be the case then as we know, whatever the US does, everyone else tends to follow and I would expect the shorters to start closing on many companies.
I sort of agree with some of what you say Value but the one thing I would say to balance that argument is that with the detail of the energy bail out being sorted next week we could actually see a massive turnaround here because consumer confidence will start to return - all the trading updates coming out at the minute are saying that August was really bad probably because of all the uncertainty and no one in Government working to take charge.
Unfortunately these past few months have only given the shorters more opportunity to drive share prices down even further but I do see the tide changing shortly and hopefully a long upward trend will return - as we saw the other week, the share price rose rapidly from £7 odd to £9.70 so I wouldn't be surprised to see that repeat itself.
The other thing that we don't know about is how the link up with the likes of Kroger is performing - someone posted Krogers figures here I think last week and they were doing quite well which is obviously going to have a positive impact on the next full financial statement from the company. In addition, some strategists are suggesting the war in Ukraine could end by Xmas which would be fantastic - again, if this were to be the case, then as the market is forward looking the landscape with the markets would change dramatically.
Are starting to come out thick and fast now where a lot of companies are saying there had been a significant downturn in sales during August due to the uncertainties in respect of the energy costs. Come next week when its confirmed that the prices are being capped for two years the last two months of shares downtrending will hopefully reverse quite sharply and we can finally look forward to a rising share price at last. Ocado are the latest ones today that have said things slowed specifically in August and I think Halfords as well as ASOS have said the same.
It could possibly be because there's no detail yet about the energy bail out - apparently the new Chancellor has been criticised for not coming out and telling/being clear about what's going to be happening with businesses - maybe the shorters think they still have plenty of time.