The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Still abound at the minute and that's one thing the markets don't like - todays sell off is because of the data out of China today which has been severely impacted by their lockdowns - apparently there were zero car sales in the month of April. According to professional traders/investors that I follow, the view last week was that there were signs of a short term rally (whether China data has changed this I'm not sure) but the downward trend will continue for a while yet.
May be an interesting week for volatility - Wal Mart are due to report their figures in the States and monthly retail sales figures are also out this week which will give an indicator of where the consumer is in the States - as we all know, it only really matters what's happening over there to direct our markets, but one thing is for sure, when the rebound does come it will be very strong - OK, it was covid driven, but if you look at how OCDO increased from £10 odd to £28 in a short time, there's every chance that the target share price could be achieved especially if revenue from the likes of Kroger start making a big impact on the bottom line on the solutions side of the business.
Have been reporting that the current bear market is not likely to end until 19/10 - this is based on previous bear markets that average 279 days the start point for which is taken from when the US market started selling off in November last year - I know the UK market has been in a downtrend more or less since early last year so we may start coming out of things a bit earlier than that but until things like the Ukraine war, supply chain issues and covid start being resolved personally I can't see any upward momentum being maintained - sadly the markets/share prices are driven by the fund managers and when they feel that prices are low enough that's when we'll see changes.
According to Bloomberg the current bear market going on past statistics is due to end around the 19/10 - apparently bear markets last on average around 279 days. There's someone I follow on Twitter - Mark Miniverni - who is a US investing champion that has published books in respect of trading and has been trading in excess of 30 years - he has a 50/80 rule - that is that 50% of companies share prices fall 80% from their previous highs, and 80% fall 50% so based on the 80% fall that would take OCDO down to the £5.60 odd that's being quoted here so it will be interesting to see if that does come true - at least once the bear market comes to an end volume/volatility will return.
Halma I agree with what you're saying - I too didn't see todays drop but perhaps in hindsight and looking at the US markets last night I should have waited. The point I was trying to get across to SFH was that we can either "sit there and do nothing" or try and take control of the situation - by trading some of the shares when you're confident that you would be able to buy in cheaper is a good way of trying to reduce losses be that by trading the same number of shares or by accumulating more shares. SFH has already recognised the patterns but some people think that the share price has to be higher than what they paid for them to be making a profit - I was just trying to show there's a different way of looking at things.
SFH - I really don't see why you're investing if you have that attitude - so you can't see any value in selling at a higher price and then buying back in lower and pocketing the difference? - in the example I gave you're talking of over £600 - do that twice a week and that's £1200 - 10 weeks is £12,000 - not to be sniffed at really.
Whether you have 1000 shares that cost you £50 or 1000 shares that cost you £10, you still have 1000 shares - in the example above, if you had bought 1000 shares at £50 - ie £50,000 and they're now £10 - ie £10,000 it would take you something like 33 weeks to recoup your losses - possibly quicker than waiting for a share price to recover to £50 from £10.
SFH - take the tunnel vision off and have a look around at many other shares - ASC down from £52 to £13 odd, BOO down from £4.50 to 70p, MKS down from £2.50 to £1.50 odd, CINE down from £1 to 30p odd, DARK down from £10 to £4 - those are just a few examples so it's not really just OCDO that's suffering - its global effects. You just need to do the same as Halma and probably many others and trade them to make up your losses - if you had sold when Halma did yesterday morning at £9.20 and bought them back this afternoon at say £8.50 so not even at the highest/lowest points of the day you would, using 1,000 shares as an example, have either bought an additional 75 shares (that would be net of charges) or bought the same 1000 shares and put £645 back into your bank account - doing that would soon reduce your shortfall.
We're going into a bank holiday weekend and people may not want to leave money invested over the weekend - it could of course work the other way in that FOMO could bring buyers in but looking at the US futures its not looking good.
For the share price to be dropped prior to the news coming out - I wouldn't be surprised if the share price was dropped deliberately to fill an order - wonder if someone like Odey (Boris' mate) was tipped the wink that this news was about to come out and was told to load up - I'm sure that couldn't possibly happen though!
Were discussing shipping costs - prices have come down from $14,000 to $12,000 to ship a container and it was also noted following on from Tesla's update that supply chain issues have started to ease - as the market is supposed to be "forward looking" maybe we are beginning to see the end of the down trend on so many shares and volumes/volatility will hopefully return.
Posted something on twitter yesterday - they're now live in Montreal so that should bode well for the solutions side of the business. Also a technical analyst has posted something about the downtrend now being exhausted so as I mentioned the other day - if it was a triple bottom hit then more good days to come hopefully.
Actually if you knew that the share price was going to go to £8 it would be a sensible thing to do - if you had 1,000 shares and sold them at £10.50 and then used the same capital to buy back in at £8 you would either be buying back 1300 shares thereby reducing your average price because you have more, or you could buy back the same 1,000 shares and put £2,448 back into your bank account. Personally I can't see the share price going back o £8 but yet again I didn't think they'd drop further today - the last time they were as low as this they "bounced back" to £11.80 the following day.
Hit yesterday? Looking at the graphs it looks that way to me - I know its a different situation, but the last time it did that the share price flew up to £28 - not that I would be expecting it to do the same now, but the "market" is supposed to be forward looking so fingers crossed there will be more good days than bad now and the downtrend can start reversing.
Just published on Yahoo Finance - says there's an an american company considering a bid.
Are just confirming that the sell off started when news came out when Macron made a comment about his conversation with Putin - they're doing a round up of the market close. Apparently ITV are being penalised because of the costs of streaming and competition from Disney, Netflix and the likes.
I was watching Bloomberg and the market started selling off when Macron commented on a conversation that he had just had with Putting - apparently Putin told him things "had only just got started" and Macron has said things are going to get a lost worse (not sure if he was repeating what Putin had said to him). Anyway, panic is setting in and considering there's supposed to be peace talks later today, hopefully sense will prevail and we will see a nice bounce in the markets tomorrow. Obviously all bets are off if the peace talks don't go well.
Scallop - the large drops in the share price is because there's not that many shares on issue so that means that there's more volatility - don't think it's ever been anything to do with AIM myself. At least when the trend changes you'll see the same sort of price action in reverse.