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Good morning all - still very windy here but the fence still standing (just) thankfully.
Looks like markets have stabilised a bit on the news of a Putin/Biden summit, also apparently news coming out of China is that they are against Russia going into Ukraine - let's hope that's genuine.
Sorry for those that are still in SNG - I haven't read the RNS, just comments on the chat forum and can only repeat what some are saying - there's more to life than money - health and happiness are far more important.
Well I've just had to dash out my back garden and put my metal furniture up against my fence to prop it up and then go next door and do the same with their furniture the other side of the fence otherwise I could see it being blown down - thought this storm was supposed to pass by 12 not get worse :-(
N - well done on your BRBY - just as well putting stops in place at the moment as you just don't know what may happen overnight. I'm quite happy with OCDO at the minute - I hope since their sell off last week that they've bottomed - the trend seems to be upward since last week and even British Bulls have them as a stay long - just trading the daily range of around 60p at the minute which is better than ASC as they're just carrying on their downward trajectory.
According to an analyst on Bloomberg last night, he thinks that the supply chain issues are going to continue until the early part of next year - oh what joy!
Good morning all - weather not too bad here so far this morning - if this is as bad as it gets here I will be really relieved - animals are a bit spooked by the wind though.
O - market is hard to read at the minute - I was sure the FTSE would be hammered first thing but apparently (according to Bloomberg) the mood has improved because of more diplomatic talks being held with Russia.
O - thanks for that - looks like I will be in the eye of the storm tomorrow - at least everything is firmly tied down in the garden so fingers crossed no damage will be suffered. Looks like tin hats will be needed in the morning - not just from the weather here but looks like the US market is selling off tonight so will probably impact our markets tomorrow - sell off might continue all day as people may not want to risk being invested if things kick of with Ukraine over the weekend.
N - that's the one - Taiwan - couldn't remember the name of the country for the love of me last night. I've had most of the day off today - sold my OCDO this morning but just didn't feel comfortable buying back in this afternoon with the conflicting news going on with Russia/Ukraine.
Sounds like tomorrow is going to be quite rough weather wise - I've already had a phone call from the Flood Alert people saying of potential floods a few miles away and all schools seem to be closing here - there's also no re-cycling bins being collected tomorrow and all trains have been cancelled so they are obviously expecting things to get quite bad. Hope everyone stays safe and that no weather damage is incurred by anyone.
N - I was watching an analyst discussing things on I think Bloomberg or something this afternoon - what's more frightening is their thoughts are that Russia may invade Ukraine at the same time as China invades that country (sorry can't remember the name of it) that it believes should be part of China at the same time which would throw a curve ball at all the diplomacy that's been going on and spread NATO's resources quite thinly - they reckon China and Russia have been plotting/planning it - now that's a frightening thought.
N - well done on that - bet you're pleased. Lets hope that everything starts moving in the right direction in the not too distant future - we could really do with this Russia/Ukraine stuff being put to bed but I have a feeling that things are going to be protracted unless the diplomats start getting firmer with Putin and start introducing sanctions each week that he doesn't move his troops back.
Good morning all - I think it's a case of baton down the hatches today - weather forecast is really awful so hope everybody stays safe as there's warnings that there could be a danger to life with high winds over next few days.
I can't believe the markets at the moment - its as though nothing is going on at all between Russia/Ukraine. I got my days mixed up - its today the fed release their minutes from their meeting and last month after they were released I think the market sold off for about three days so I'm being cautious at the moment. Inflation figures out in the UK this morning were a bit above forecast at 5.5%.
Hope those missing from the board are keeping well - good luck all today.
Well I managed to take the dog out late this afternoon - think the weather forecast is quite bad for a few days here though.
O - I can get that - I sold OCDO a bit too soon today but I don't think it's just about selling too soon as a lot of time people don't take profits when they're there assuming that the share price is only going to go in one direction - when they miss the top, they hang on thinking that the share price is going to bounce back, don't sell, and just watch all their profits disappear - as I said before this is a tough game to play.
Good morning all - it's absolutely miserable weather wise here so I don't think I'll be walking the ewok today.
It seems like common sense/good news prevails in respect of the Russian/Ukraine conflict - fingers crossed that the troops withdrawing is genuine and we can all move on - next thing for the markets is the release of the Fed minutes later on - they sometimes have an unnerving effect on the markets so I've sold my OCDO with a view to hopefully buying back in cheaper later.
G - As here, the property prices in Tenerife don't seem to be doing anything other than going up - every time I've booked to go out there in the last 12 months covid has put a spanner in the works so I'm really hoping I do get out there at Easter. Good news in respect of your property then - fingers crossed for you that everything turns out as you want it to.
G - this game is never easy and it's only you that can decide what the right strategy/approach is for you - let's hope that the next few months are a bit better in the markets.
No, I still intend to buy in Tenerife - I'm going out at Easter and will start viewing properties - seen a few I quite like. I'm not looking to live there permanently so the change in rules following Brexit don't really bother me - you still got your place in Italy?
O - I bet you were spitting feathers on Friday especially as you did your research before going. I did hear something the other day that they will be opening the South terminal again soon because of the increase in flights - maybe they will put that on hold until the Ukraine/Russia situation is sorted - fingers crossed that common sense in respect of that prevails over the next few days.
Good morning all and Happy Valentines Day - hope you're all spoiling your loved ones today.
Looks like its going to be a tin hat day today - CAC and DAX futures down nearly 2% and FTSE futures not quite so bad at just over 1% down, strangely though the US futures are up very slightly - obviously Russia/Ukraine tensions - could be an opportunity for an in and out trade though or maybe an idea to sit on sidelines and wait - not sure today. On Bloomberg this morning they were also saying that "the market" is starting to get worried about these worldwide covid protests started in Canada - apparently it's felt that these sorts of blockades will have more impact on supply chain issues when they're least needed - interesting to see that companies are starting to pass on their additional costs to the consumers when they were reluctant to do so initially.
Hope everyone enjoyed the rugby - thought the games on Saturday were really good to watch - Englands new fly half reminds me a bit of Gavin Henson - I know they both have dark hair so that's not what I mean, but the flair that he played with.
Hope everyone has a good day.
G - you're spot on with your observations - if you look at the travel sector with rules starting to ease and demand coming back you can see that the share prices are starting to recover - I'm sure a lot of the retailers will improve once the supply chain issues have been sorted as well - so as I said yesterday, while the share price of OCDO is low again, you could take the opportunity and try and trade the spikes and shakes with some of your shares and set yourself a target of increasing your "trading pot" by say 6% a week rather than wait for god knows how long for the share price to get back to £28 - over 12 weeks on a cumulative basis you could end up doubling your holding which will have the same impact as the share price doubling - so based on 1,000 shares - if you had sold them on Thursday at £13.40 and bought them back on Friday at £12.80 you would have been buying back 1040 shares (that's a 4% increase in one trade). Over 12 weeks, based on my example, you would end up with 2012 shares at say £13 = £26,156 rather than the 1,000 at £13. I know we've talked about this in the past but by only using some of your shares to do this until your confident may be a quicker way of getting back into a profit situation rather than wait for the share price to go up to its previous levels and the overall share price wouldn't be an issue then - only food for thought for you.
Yes, crystal balls would be nice - we all have our own strategies and we all make mistakes - I wish I'd sold the CCL and MCRO at their highs of £18 and £6 respectively at the start of last year having taken so long to accumulate them, and I could have then bought them back at £12 and £4 but I had specific "sell" targets in mind which they got close to - I thought that "everything was going to get back to normal" but then the Delta variant hit and other problems like supply chains and inflation started to affect the markets and I didn't envisage the share prices drop back so same as you with OCDO really but I have continued to trade spikes and shakes where I have been able to - I think last year was the worst I've known in the markets because of little volume/volatility and share prices only going down so it's been hard to get my "trading pot" to do anything meaningful so hopefully, as the markets are supposed to be forward looking, things may start to improve a bit.
I also think you're right that share prices are driven up quickly to let the big guns out - if you think of the terms of the Bonds or whatever they were that OCDO did a few years ago, I think the share price had to get to about £26 before people could exit so maybe that's why the share price got to where it did. If you look at companies like DARK, ARB, THG just to name a few - they floated on the markets, did extremely well initially, and have since sunk - apparently 80% of companies that hit a new "high" fall 50% of the time.
It's tough and we all make mistakes - its how we deal with them that matters :-
G - Sorry for the length of the last post but I was also going to say if we all had crystal balls and could see into the future and sell at the highs and buy at the lows there would be an awful lot of wealthy people around - all you can do is what you think is right for you and set your own targets/goals/objectives to get you to where you want to be in life.
Hi G - have you seen the article that was in the papers today about OCDO - been posted on the chat forum.
I think the same as the comment in the article in that I was really surprised that the share price shot up so high and so quickly and I suppose hindsight is a wonderful thing in that if someone had sold at the top and waited and bought back now they would have considerably more shares or capital than now but everything is a learning curve and sometimes unless you're trading on technicals (which I haven't got the hang of) its hard to know "in the moment" unless there's things in the news that make it obvious that a share price is going to be affected by events going on outside of their control - ie the pandemic and the negative impact it had on travel/leisure shares and the positive impact on online companies.
You mentioned about how RMG have recovered from their lows, but I think that is more because of the impact the pandemic had on their parcel delivery business which improved their bottom line quite considerably as more people were buying things online - I'm sure I saw something along those lines when they were reporting their figures, so if the pandemic hadn't happened, and they were still carrying on as before, I don't think the share price will have recovered as much as it has so its always hard trying to put a value on things because outside influences can completely change things for a company - Moderna for example having a vaccine for covid authorised massively impacted their share price, Netflix and Roku in the States had massive increases in their share prices when lockdowns first started but then once the lockdowns eased their share prices started to fall and especially in Roku's case I think they went from something like $100 to $500 back to $100 - just using extreme examples there to highlight what can happen.
I haven't got a target price in mind for OCDO - I'm just trading the swings with a core holding and taking out my gains each week to build up my cash reserves building towards my "retirement" - traders that work off technical indicators start to get interested when share prices start to turn and that's when volume/interest starts coming back - I mentioned the other day that British Bulls now have OCDO as a "buy" having had them as a "short" position prior to the results coming out, and a chartist I follow has also said that it looks like OCDO is starting to turn around but I wouldn't like to hazard a guess as to how long it would take them to get back to their prior highs.
I'm not sure what impact interest rate rises will have on the housing market now - I think the world has got used to low interest rates so I wouldn't be surprised to see rates coming back down next year if they manage to get inflation back under control as the "powers that be" seem to believe the reason for the high inflation at the moment is due to problems with supply chains brought on by covid which will soon be gone.
N - they were saying on Bloomberg earlier how they thought the "luxury" sector wouldn't get affected by the inflationary pressures or interest rate rises so a good strategy to follow me thinks. Seems like Fridays are "profit taking" days - people don't want to leave money invested over the weekend just in case things kick off.
Hi G - hope you're keeping well.
I think people don't understand the potential level of income that will be generated from the solutions side of the OCDO business - the income has only just started to come through but I think people may have concerns in respect of the expansion programme being undertaken and the fact that the company still aren't profitable.
The main reason I have started trading them again is that I think they have (fingers crossed) hit the bottom - I'm not sure if that can be said for some other shares, but I have been watching the volume/volatility and its starting to come back which is a good sign I think. I noticed your comments the other day and your disappointment at the fall in share price from the highs - in fairness its not just OCDO's share price that has suffered in the last 12 months or so - if you look at the charts on IAG, EZJ, CCL, ASC, BOO, TED, CARD (I could go on) they have all been gradually falling since about March of last year - from what I can see its been down to the ongoing issues with supply chains, uncertainty in respect of covid, shorts having a field day - so its been a tough 12 months or so. I would say as we start coming out of covid, and the supply chains start to ease off, things should start to get easier but then we've got inflation worries, interest rate rises, potential war between Russia/Ukraine and any other hand grenade that wants to get thrown into the mix. The one good thing about the share prices being so low again is that if you are comfortable in trading them then you are buying more for your money while they are cheaper - every negative has a positive I suppose.