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Good morning all.
N - thanks for that - and I agree in respect of Putin but I have to be honest I don't believe it was him that sabotaged the pipeline - it's why bite the hand that feeds you? I was saying to a friend of mine the other week when he was playing games with the supplies saying that the pipeline had to be serviced or whatever that we should just blow it up so it stops him using it as a weapon and slows his income stream right down - to me he was just holding the world to ransom at that time. I think he is coming under increasing pressure internally now as well and if his economy starts to be impacted - which I think it is as I understand he's having to sell his oil to China and India at massively discounted prices, then things may start to implode on him - hopefully before he goes nuclear on the world which is a very frightening thought.
N - I hope you don't mind, but I posted your bit about the Telegraph article on the ASC and OCDO sites - there are a few people invested in both companies that seem to be getting really stressed about where the share prices are at the moment, and as we know, the doom mongers seem to be out in their droves at the moment so I thought that may give some people some re-assurance.
Good morning all - hope everyones OK.
N - I agree with what was being said - but what I would also add is the market is forward looking so we should start to see things changing quite soon (in my mind anyway) as the fund managers will not want to wait for the prices to be rising before they buy in - the only caveat I have to that it if something else happens with the Russia/Ukraine war and even that seems to be having no impact on the markets unless of course the N option is used which I pray it isn't.
If anyone is interested, I've put some comments on the ASC and OCDO boards this morning - I can't be bothered typing it all out again - but it basically covers how I envisage things unfolding over the next couple of months. Yesterday I think we hit peak fear so trading opportunities should start coming through thick and fast shortly - all in my opinion obviously.
Good afternoon all - hope everyone is keeping well.
Just read that wholesale gas prices have reduced from a peak of £7.88 per therm in August to roughly £2.62 per therm today - I can't believe how much its dropped but it just goes to show the impact hedge funds have on things - they started cashing out of the trade back in August probably because they realised they pushed the price to the maximum/made their profits and ran.
Anyway, if these prices stabilise or even reduce further then there's going to be an impact on inflation in that hopefully we have seen the peak and it should start coming back down - if that is the case, then the need to increase interest rates should be removed and there may be a case for them to start reducing to bring the mortgage rates down - if that does happen I can see the markets starting to be a bit more positive - a bit like after the covid crash - but hopefully the gains will be held for a lot longer given that a lot of the uncertainties (bar the Ukraine/Russian war) that created the long down trend in supply chain issues etc will have been resolved. Just have to see how close Bloomberg are with their calculation that the bear market is due to end on or around 19 October.
Dustbin - sorry can't help with your question - I wouldn't have a clue where to look for that information.
Good morning all - everyone sounds a bit fed up with the markets at the moment (myself included) but I'm hoping that Thursday/Friday may be positive days as its the end of quarter 3 on Friday so funds may start positioning themselves ready for the following quarter. Whether this is to be believed, and only time will tell, Goldman Sachs reckons the "bottom" is in for the European markets - ie they've stopped shorting everything/dumping everything in sight, and have positioned themselves for the rise to come - it will be interesting to see how the next few weeks work out though as according to Bloomberg the "bear market" should end on 19/10 but at least there's bargains to be had.
I appreciate that all of this probably depends on the situation with the Ukraine war, and things seem to be accelerating with the Nordstream pipeline being damaged - my theory on this is that it wasn't Russia, but the powers that be have been accumulating gas supplies until they know that they've got enough to get through winter and have now attacked so that Putin can no longer use the gas supply as a weapon - by him not being able to export gas its going to damage his cashflow and have difficulty in funding the war - only my take on it :-)
Hope everyone is keeping well.
V - welcome back - it sounds like your holiday was a bit mixed in that you fell ill but at least you finally managed to get away which I suppose given the last few years is the positive. Unfortunately I still have to wait a while before I get my place in the Sun again - brilliant that MCRO has improved but still nowhere near my £8 target price and CCL are falling well short of my £18 target at the moment - like many others, I didn't see the markets perform as they have since March of last year and didn't sell my holdings when I could of - hindsight is a wonderful thing I suppose but at least I'm accumulating a few more shares in CCL, OCDO and ASC at nicely depressed prices :-)
Good afternoon all - that wasn't a good start to a new month - I think everyone is fed up now - wouldn't it be great if there was a sudden announcement that short selling was banned - we'd certainly see a nice rebound in the markets.
O - thanks re MCRO - was nice to have something positive happen for a change.
Good morning all - September already and lets hope its the start of better times to come on the markets - may start getting better next week with everyone returning from their holidays and at last a new Prime Minister - I don't think my preferred candidate will win unfortunately - I trust Sunak with the economy/running the country far more than I would trust Truss - to me she doesn't seem to have a clue.
I've thought of a solution to the increase in the energy prices - I think the Government should absorb all increases in costs until things return to normal but increase income/corporation tax by 1% until the debt is repaid - that way people/businesses don't have to try and cover the extreme increases in costs in the short term which should sort out all these strikers wanting more money - I can understand why they want more, but as the increase in energy bills is the main driver and hopefully will only be temporary, I can understand why employees are resisting giving such large increases as that will be a permanent feature in their pay so it will have an ongoing/cumulative effect.
I hope everyone is keeping well.
Good morning all - and what a fabulous Friday its turned out to be - MCRO are being bought out so that has saved me some time in waiting for the share price to recover - at last some good news - hoorah :-)
Hope everyone is doing OK - need to earn a bit now given how much the energy cap has increased by today - I think the Government should absorb the increases as its just going to be a disaster to the economy if they don't - its not just households that will struggle with the increase.
Good morning all - I don't know about anybody else, but I think everything at the moment is so downright gloomy - the weather, the markets, the outlook on the economy - just feels the doom and gloom is never ending - at least more commentators are saying that the bear market will end in October so we have that and Xmas to look forward to. I always think/feel that Xmas is on its way once the August bank holiday has arrived as it seems to come around so quickly after it - I know I'm early talking about it, but I noticed that the tins of chocolates are in the supermarkets already!
Hope everyone is OK and keeping their heads about water - fingers crossed that no-one was holding CINE - looks like we're going to have another sell off today and some shares could hit year lows again - at least we have the bounce/rebound to look forward to when it eventually comes - could be more dramatic than it was after the bottom was hit with covid in March 2020.
N - Sounds like you're doing well - got a bit of a spread of companies there by the looks of things.
O - Sounds like you're becoming a bit of a jet setter - don't blame you - its good to have nice things to look forward to - is it your Son you'll be visiting in Australia?
Good morning all - Friday and mid August already - not long before the end of the bear market according to Bloomberg - I think they stated they reckon its going to be around the 19 October - one good thing is if you are able to trade and accumulate some shares in some companies, when the market does turn around all the pain over the last 18 months or so will have been well worth it.
O - it looks like welcome back and have a good trip - when you off to India and for how long? We've been quite lucky here in that we haven't had the horrendous downpours that some parts of the country have had, but if its hit your area then you can definitely say you are acclimatising quite nicely.
DJ - Keep your chin up - in all the years I've been trading I've never known it to be this bad for this long so things can only get better - not a bad idea buying Tesco/Diageo and I know things are all doom and gloom at the minute, but don't forget the market is supposed to be "forward looking" - if a package is announced by the Government to bridge the utilities situation then quite a lot of things may change as the "fear" in respect of inflation and everything else eases (only in my opinion). Just food for thought - the supply chains are starting to ease so it may be worth looking at some of the companies that have been hitting their lows and start building a position ready for the turnaround as the more that you can accumulate now, the more profit will be made when the rise does come. Not sure what anyone else things about my views.
C - I hope you're still enjoying your puppy - I can remember mine at that age and having to keep everything out of her way or it would have ended in her mouth - such fun times - enjoy.
Hope everyone has fantastic plans for the weekend.
Good afternoon all - hope the markets are treating you kindly - they certainly seem to be a bit more positive in the last few days which I'm finding a bit bizarre given the rising inflation, interest rates, Ukraine and now Taiwan. Apparently some are saying that the markets have misunderstood what the Fed were saying last week with regards to interest rates in that the market thinks they are going to be reducing rather than raising again - I've given up trying to interpret the data/information and am just going with the flow on a daily basis.
DJ - hope you enjoyed your time away and are feeling refreshed and ready to go again - sometimes the best thing is to step away if you're not comfortable/confident with what your doing.
n - just in case you ended up buying into OCDO I thought I better let you know that I've sold this afternoon - I may be wrong but to me a £1.25 increase in share price in just a few days seems a bit much considering there's been very little "cool off" of the share price in-between and low volumes as well.
Good morning all - can't believe we're in the last week of July already.
N - good to see you're dipping your toes back in the market and making some profits - the volatility seems to be picking up a little bit and from where some share prices are at the moment I don't think you'd have to wait long to get back into profit if you buy slightly at the wrong time - I think we still have a rocky couple of months but I don't think we're far off a bottom and that's where a lot of money can be made.
V - if you haven't used your ISA allowance yet, have you considered starting to trade OCDO again? The volatility is getting quite good again and you could be working towards getting your Tesla (if you haven't already got it) by accumulating the shares waiting for the upturn again.
C - well done for managing your losses - what starts as a 10% loss could end up as a 90% loss because as human beings we don't want to accept losses - I don't know if you've seen me mention about Mark Miniverni on here in the past, but he is a trader in the US who has won some sort of trading championship over there in the past and has been trading for about 40 years - he has also published three books on trading which are really helpful especially in respect of managing risk and taking losses - I follow him on twitter so sometimes he comes up with some really useful/helpful tips.
Good morning all - Friday already and in mid July - I just don't know where the time goes.
Glad to hear that you're all OK and been enjoying the weather - I must be the only sad one still doing some trading - I'm mainly trading CCL, OCDO, ASC and ROKU - trying not to be left holding anything other than my core holdings overnight as you never know what may happen - can't believe the drops on WINE the other week and now FEVR today.
N - I think O is away in France at the moment - he did mention a few weeks ago that he was planning a 3-4 week trip and was saying about the car hire costs over there at the minute so fingers crossed that is the reason for him being AWOL.
V - Hope you have an amazing holly bobbles - you've certainly waited long enough for it to happen.
Hope everyone's well prepared for the forthcoming heatwave - have a good weekend all.
Good morning all - I can't believe it's the last day in June already - and it looks like its going to be a nice one here today.
Looks like everyone is feeling the same as me - fed up with the markets and today may start as another down day although a combination of data out of the States and it being the last day of the month/quarter things could change with all the big guns in the States moving things around to fix their figures (oops I mean re-aligning their portfolios).
I see a bitcoin hedge fund in the States folded yesterday so its not only us that don't sell on the highs of the market - apparently it was run by two ex Wall Street guys so if they got things wrong what hope have us mere mortals got. In fairness, if you know hedge funds are folding because of getting things wrong it gives me a bit of comfort that I'm still standing. There are murmurings that we are near the bottom - apparently the figure for the Nasdaq to look out for is something like 9500 points so not far off and we all know that once the market starts to turn we all know that's where the money is to be made.
n - sorry, when I mentioned about OCDO doing a Primary Bid fund raise and there would be opportunity in the morning, I meant for people to keep an eye out on the share price for exactly the reasons you stated.
N - keep your chin up - we all know things can turn around quite quickly - my main holdings CCL and MCRO are well down on what they were last year and I'm really fed up because for the first time in many years I am actually holding onto shares rather than cashing in at the end of every week - I changed a winning strategy for what I thought would be a better one given the circumstances with covid but at least with the share prices so low now some can be traded (again) and holdings increased - I'm definitely buying more CCL today - absolutely hammered yesterday because Morgan Stanley downgraded them - ready to buy today no doubt to "re-align" their portfolios!
Hope everyone else is keeping well.
Good evening all - hope everyone's enjoying this lovely weather.
Just in case people haven't seen it, but apparently OCDO are raising funds via Primary Bid tonight - my guess is that the share price may get hammered tomorrow first thing so if anyone's interested it may be worth a trade.
Good morning - lovely sunny day today - the same can't be said for some of my favoured shares - ASC down below £10 again - not sure if its a bargain at this level but taken a few at £9.97 - all this cost of living/recession/interest rate rises are really negatively impacting my portfolio.
N - not sure if you've been watching Roku but they dropped from $102 down to $73 and now up to about $84 again - 10% swings each day since last Thursday - shame most of them have been in a down direction.
V - Don't blame you for holding off with your ISA funds - makes you wonder when all this negativity ends, but when it does there will be bargains to be had.
It seems that all the effects of covid on business' were delayed and the Ukraine war has just compounded things.
Hope everyone is keeping OK.