Member Info for travesties

Rick123: Still waiting for that upswing above yesterday's close? In retrospect, yesterdays 630p (=peak rumour), profit-taking down to 565p, down again today to 520p (reality check 1). In the long run Ocado may well be a fine future facing company, but there might still be further funding raising needed to get there (rights issues). Drop in cashflow also a worry with a gtreat middle class recession now on the horizon (mortgage misery). I'd be tempted to buy back in at 450p or lower.

RICK 123: Live 531p down 6.8%. You were predicting a huge rise today, if I'm not mistaken?

"Given Thursday's move in Ocado's share price, under UK takeover rules if the group had received an approach that could result in a firm offer it would normally be obliged to notify the market.

If a suitor was planning to make an approach but hadn't yet done so, and if Ocado was unaware and details had leaked, the obligation to consult the Takeover Panel would sit with the possible bidder. It might be required to make a statement.

Analysts said the lack of any statements told its own story, indicating the bid speculation could be wide of the mark.

Baillie Gifford, Ocado's second largest shareholder with a 12% stake, said the group should remain independent.

"We believe that Ocado is very early in addressing a very big market opportunity," said Tom Slater of Baillie Gifford, which manages the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust."

Nothing so stale as yesterday's news, yesterday's rumour. In the best of all possible worlds we might see 800p, or 1550p (fair value), or £28 (peak price), if you're Dr Pangloss.

Live price hovering around 520p. Indicates a short term speculative premium of about £1?

Looking forward to the Ocado staff meeting at 16:00, led by Dr Lewis Carroll. Tea and Mushroom canapes.

"Down, down, down."

"The rabbit-hole went straight on like a tunnel for some way, and then dipped suddenly down, so suddenly that Alice had not a moment to think about stopping herself before she found herself falling down a very deep well. "

Rumour bubble has burst (at least for the moment).

""It seems that Ocado's short sellers received an unexpected grocery delivery full of rotten tomatoes today," said Ivan Ćosović, founder of Breakout Point.

Based on regulatory short disclosures, the data company estimated that eight short-sellers had trades facing a total potential loss of about 101 million pounds ($128.88 million) on Thursday.

"However, most of these shorts have been around for a while now, so in spite of today's jump, many of big shorts seem to be still doing just fine on a long enough timeline," said Ćosović. "

"Varenne Capital said its position remained profitable as it had been in place for many quarters.

"We find it hard to believe Amazon (is) buying Ocado as Kroger is one of Ocado's largest shareholders and clients," said Varenne Capital Partners CEO Giuseppe Perrone.

U.S.-based Kroger Co is one of Amazon's direct competitors and as a major Ocado shareholder, would have to approve any deal."

The rumoured announcement from Amazon at 2:30 pm has dematerialised!

Can't see much evidence that short sellers are rushing to cover their positions (6% short stock), buy/sell = 0.5 % of stock by volume.

"Assuming that Ocado is able to make money, the reality is that it is a low-margin business. According to FT, Ocado’s net profit margin in 2022 was mins 19.15% while its operating margin came in at minus 18%. The gross margin, which is important for a company like this, came in at 38%. This means that its profit margins will not be enticing when it breaks even.

There are other red flags for Ocado. For a company like Amazon, it is unclear whether CMA will allow the deal because of its strong market share in the country. Also, there are issues because of how Ocado operates. It has a joint venture with Marks and Spencer and works with other retailers like Kroger. "

https://invezz.com/news/2023/06/22/ocado-share-price-spiked-3-reasons-acquirers-should-avoid-it/?snapi

Can't see competition regulators allowing an Amazon takeover, despite the fact they have historically allowed Amazon to sweep up all their competitors. If the fair value = £15.50 / share, then there seems to be a lot of scepticism about a bid worth 800p ?

8 June: Barclays has updated and increases its Price Target for VOD = 115p. Gain = 60%

Time to top up?

Just remind me what the Book value is for VOD?

Think they're at the bottom. Safe bet. Excellent dividend stream.

I'm with BARCLAYS on this one: 2500 price target.

Problem is the low dividend and low asset value?

Shorts failing to dump the shares. Easyet no skidding down. They're not piling in for the predicted 25%+ drop. Time to TAKE-OFF with UBS toward 600p ?!

The book value of a stock is theoretically the amount of money that would be paid to shareholders if the company was liquidated and paid off all of its liabilities. As a result, the book value equals the difference between a company's total assets and total liabilities. Current Book Value/Shr = 166p—173p.

Any takeover would be close to the current asset price. At least 160p, maybe more?