Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So I presume he is not on the Board of the JV?
If I were a shareholder I would consider he is overboarded and be writing to the NOMAD and AIM reg. Do ARC have an overboarding policy?
"Travelcard is not involved and yet he has a view on value" - If I were considering an investment, why wouldn't I have a view on value?
"He wouldn't buy the shares post the placing even though the company is now fully funded" - I don't believe the company is fully funded. It is only funded from the JV perspective and that's assuming AA decide to continue. Re funding - If they want to develop Botswana IMO ARC will need more capital.
"the share price is much lower than it was before the period leading up to the placing" - The company was overvalued. It had a working capital deficit which was obvious. I have consistently said when is the placing going to happen for the last 4 to 5 months. Last week - et voilà, a placing is announced.
My principles on EV & corporate finance are easy. Post the new placing shares being admitted to trading on AIM - for ARC to get to 3p it will have a market cap of £42m. Overvalued for a company that only has a percentage of a JV which it does not control. Plus it will probably have increased overheads due to Botswana.
For this to get to 5p (without warrants being exercised) £70m market cap. Again, overvalued for a company that only has a percentage of a JV which it does not control.
To get to 10p, by the time last weeks placing warrants have been exercised, additional placings to fund Botswana and additional CAPEX/OPEX leads to a market cap of c.£160m - £170m and still not a pound of copper produced. From an EV perspective the numbers just don't work and that doesn't also take into account LTVM. Show me an early stage copper exploration company that has similar characteristics to ARC valued at £170m? I won't hold my breath!!!
The institutional investment universe for natural resources companies is quite a small and a close knit network. If ARC is a slam dunk, why wasn't the placing underwritten by a known natural resources investor? EV, that's why. Transformational deals in the mining world are not kept alive with a retail placing, that tells you all you need to know.
Sorry to disappoint you Seis - I don't post on any other boards - too busy.
BTW - I am neither long nor short in ARC and post the placing would certainly now not invest. It was a hatchet job for shareholders and continues the gravy train for Directors. The warrants were the giveaway. Why price them so low when this company has signed a supposedly transformational deal?
There will be selling pressure and dilution aplenty here, plus most probably further placings to fund Botswana. Time you took your fixation away from the cadastre and licences and focussed on the cap table. Work the numbers out, from a future EV perspective, it's a mess.
I couldn't agree more with John Meyer. He will I am sure also have had more than a few meetings with the BoD. Surprised it took him so long to work out.
One course of action if you want to go down the legal route would be a Derivative Rights Action.
HarChris - "Well i'm certainly glad it's institutions only."
I would hardly call Shard an Institutional Investor. All they do is write a ticket and sell on to their retail clients. My understanding is they were in for about £2.2m of the placing. By the time that's been split down into average £5k chunks all you have is another load of leaky holders who won't hang around too long.
“Members of the public are not eligible to take part in the Placing.”
I think that shows the contempt held for smaller shareholders. It's not difficult to put a corporate action out and give existing shareholders the option to subscribe if the will of the advisors & company is there. Share certs too, probably to stop any short term flippers!
They are hardly going to state publicly that there is a need to raise money. Take your BLINKERS off and show some objectivity!
Seems £60K -£70K is meaningful. Personally I would have thought SPAngels a better home for a resource company.
Further dilution to pay suppliers?
When’s the placing then?
If they are not prepared to back themselves at this price why should anyone else.?
Lifestyle company end of.
Just like to dip in and out and expose certain posters for the frauds they are.
FYI, I think Seis has good intentions, probably blinded by his investment. Fulmar on the other hand, I and others can see right through him. Unsophisticated ramper, that's all he is.
Anyway, as I said long flight tomorrow so catch up on Friday.
For what it's worth, I think the Board are strokers, it's a lifestyle company.
It's pleasure but I / we will be in business!
Seis - Proof of paid derampers or another round of Fake News?
One could say you blinkered vision of this company's share price..................
OK, you do that Simone. why don't you calm down, pick some muscles and cogitate.
I have a 12 hour flight tomorrow, FYI, anyone who posts between 14.25 and 02.45 isn't me. Don't want to burst your bubble but I have only one username here.
And as I said, Directors put the money up and I might follow.
Hold on, actually, would probably need a more effective Non- Exec too but that's another story?
And to add, once the Directors back themselves with cash, I would consider investing. They need to put the cash down first though.
OK, so now you have just hit the nail on the head. There is no guarantee of a tier 1. However, take a look at the underwater boys who have been spouting this is a tier 1 asset.
I rest my case.
Simon? Probably bed time. Let's pick this up after your paper round in the morning.
Sorry thick lad Simon, I was typing when your post was published and never saw it. My opinion is that there historically some good results on certain cores but don't think there is enough there to confirm a Tier 1 deposit. What do you think?
Sorry, Simon-opinionless. Spell check has a way of embarrassing people.
Now young man. What's the question?