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Kindly f off Shalamar. Cheers
Near term catalysts:
- Technical Site Survey due this month - per 27th March
- Rig Contract due any time now - Q2 per Feb 15th
- Conclusion to Farm-Out negotiations any time now - Q2 per Feb 15th
- Further Board appointments any time now - per 15th March & 2nd April
-Environmental and drilling approvals - Q3 per Feb 15th
- Well mobilisation - Q4 per Feb 15th
- Well spud - Q4 per Feb 15th
-Drilling results - Q4 per Feb 15th
Cash:
Circa £6.5m - As at 31 December 2023 the Company had an available cash position of approximately £3.65 million + £3m raised Feb 12th + £260k in retail wrap offer 16th Feb.
Looks like Butler is close to making a deal with or without Sunrise, he has the TL Government onside they've taken a paying interest. Chuditch is plenty big in its own right. The Technical Site Survey is imminent and then I believe a Rig will get locked in closely followed by Farm-Out/drill funding announcements.
After listening to the interview with Proactive it sounds like the Rig Contract is coming straight after the Technical Site Survey due very shortly now.
UPL still need a PSC to be issued to them, the comparison stands. Baron would easily be £50m+ if it wasn't for that wet lettuce Yeo - he didn't support the story and was clearly slowing negotiations. Butler again sounds very confident of Farm-Out/Drill funding negotiations. Mentioned upcoming news on this, Technical Site Survey and Rig. It's coming!
The comparison with UPL is very valid as they also require a Farm-Out & Rig Contract. Both companies have billion barrel equivalent resources. The higher that goes the more undervalued BOIL looks. Big upside in both now.
Market beginning to twig how undervalued this is now compared to sector peers as it runs into news and unshackles itself from the overhang, it should correct to +0.20 (£50m) to look fair value right now and then on Farm-Out 0.595 (£150m) per risked valuation, the success case is circa (3p). Look at UPL £52m mcap, meanwhile BOIL on the move now at £15m with half the mcap covered in cash essentially valuing Chuditch a multi-tcf asset at just circa £7m when the TL Government paying interest for 20% alone is worth $8.5m minimum. We should be trading £50m+, we'll correct as the market positions for news and milestones get hit. Sentiment is turning.
What a run this could have now.
Lol VT, the bird Baron 🦅 definitely has a mind of her own. The 0.05s have never lasted she usually likes to cruise at an altitude of 0.08s-0.10s before really taking off. Could be news, we are due lots of it. With Baron it could just be some left field volume, ir or pr and we start rising.
Atb
Fivecandles - a bit of feedback, stop with the nonsensical hyperbole posts please. Ask questions, share research but don't post for the sake of posting.
I don't like derampers and nonsensical ramping. There are some well researched folk on this bulletin board, respect it and you'll be respected back.
Meadow - cheer up
🔹️Technical Site Survey due this month
🔹️Rig Contract due any time now
🔹️Conclusion to Farm-Out negotiations any time now
🔹️Further Board appointments any time now
🔹️Environmental and drilling approvals
🔹️Well mobilisation
🔹️Well spud
🔹️Drilling results
Valuation
We are leaving our risked absolute valuation for the Chuditch project unchanged at US$190m. This assumes a farm-down in Baron’s interest from 60% to 30%, GPOS (geological probability of success) risking and project valuation quotients ranging from US$1.3/boe to US$2.5/boe depending on risk profile. Based on 25.51bn shares outstanding post the February 15, 2024 raise, the risked valuation is 0.595p/share. This compares with 0.765p/share previously, with the decline reflecting the greater number of shares in issue.
Our success case Chuditch valuation remains at US$683m based on US$5.0/boe. We define success as post a pre-feasibility study supporting viability and a final investment decision (FID) in the affirmative.
From latest Allenby note Feb 2024:
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/02/20240220-Baron-Oil-BOIL.L-Allenby-Capital-Update-Chuditch-2-appraisal-well-preparations.pdf?c4050=on
Why haven't they sold Stanley as yet! They could have 18 months or more of cash at there disposal if they did that. Instead shortly they'll have to go cap in hand to raise another £300k at a deep discount and needlessly give away warrants. This is what frustrates me with Mosman, so much upside wasted, Carroll is too slow. Ffs get on with it and get gone of the useless oil assets!
For anyone that hasn't watched it here is a link to the interview with Andy Butler:
https://t.co/EwDgkz3EOz
Drill or drop date has been extended multiple times so is not a hard and fast thing, especially now with the TL government taking a paid interest in the project clearly this well is getting drilled in Q4. Butler seemed confident of wrapping up discussions, he was very clear that this would be by way of farmout/asset level investment with no equity required at the plc level. That is very significant in itself. I'm looking forward to the multiple threads of news flow we got due now and our valuation to start correcting.