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If Xinhai’s flotation circuit delivers and finally cracks what STARK couldn’t, the whole dynamic changes here. Glencore and the other interested parties step up. Glencore already signed a non binding LOI with PREM covering potential spodumene purchases and the possible repayment or restructuring of the Canmax prepayment facility tied to Zulu.

"Premier has entered into a non-binding letter of interest with Glencore International Ag ("Letter") regarding the possible purchase of spodumene concentrate and repayment and/or management of the prepayment amount plus interest owed in respect of the Zulu Lithium and Tantalum Project ("Zulu")."

You've hit the nail on the head. Canmax ultimately want spodumene product, not the headache of operating a mine, that's not what they do.

You’ll see serious industry interest if the Xinhai circuit demonstrates stable SC6 production.

Huayou is already one of the major players in Africa’s lithium space after acquiring the Arcadia Lithium Project in Zimbabwe for about US$422 million

They've just announced to acquire Atlantic Lithium in a proposed $210 million transaction.

"Subject to feed meeting agreed specification" doesn’t mean hand picking ore or sorting the "best bits". It’s standard EPC wording that defines a controlled feed envelope based on testwork.

In practice, feed spec is managed through mine planning, ore block selection, stockpile blending, and crushing/grinding control to keep material within the design range.

And yes, it protects the contractor because you can’t exactly agree a design based on spodumene ore and then feed it gummy bears and expect it to hit recovery targets.

Flotation is the economic heart of the flowsheet. If that section is designed and performing properly, it materially reduces the key risk that was previously concentrated there. Xinhai therefore derisks the most critical part of the process, but they are not and were never presented as a blanket guarantee for full plant performance.

However, unlike Stark, PREM does have a defined process performance framework with Xinhai. The RNS states:

“A process performance guarantee, under which the contractor is required to commission the flotation circuit to achieve targeted spodumene concentrate grade and recoveries at a design throughput of 15 t/h to 20 t/h, subject to feed meeting agreed specification.”

There is also a staged payment structure, with a portion of commissioning fees withheld and only payable upon achievement of agreed performance and throughput criteria, aligning final payment with delivery of operational performance. This provides a more structured and enforceable acceptance regime for the flotation circuit than existed previously.

The flotation circuit was the core bottleneck.

Enprotec were still trying to rescue and optimise a fundamentally compromised STARK flowsheet/design, whereas Xinhai are replacing key parts of the flotation system with their own proven circuit architecture rather than endlessly patching the old one.

Xinhai dwarfs Enprotec. They’re a globally established mining EPC with significantly deeper lithium process engineering, manufacturing capability, commissioning experience, and reference plants.

On 17/02/26 PREM explicitly stated they were:

“utilising Xinhai Technology Processing equipment and process design”

while moving away from:

“further reliance on the existing primary flotation plant configuration.”

The RNSs make it pretty clear Xinhai are doing far more than casually supplying a float unit, even if they are not rebuilding the entire mine from scratch. Their remit includes:

supplying the new spodumene flotation circuit, process design, specialist engineering support, installation supervision, commissioning, and optimisation of the flotation section.

That’s a fundamentally different level of involvement from simply trying to tweak an inherited STARK setup.

Agree. GR effectively ended up with a bespoke plant design delivered by STARK, a smaller South African modular EPC with limited track record in complex lithium flotation at scale, and likely chosen in part because they were already in country, available, and able to mobilise quickly. The trade off was that there was no equivalent Tier 1 reference base or strong performance guarantees underpinning the design. Once issues emerged, there wasn’t really a strong contractual leverage position to force outcomes.

GH has approached it very differently. Xinhai is a large Chinese industrial EPC with extensive global lithium processing experience and multiple operating reference plants. The Chinese EPC sector, particularly players like Xinhai, are effectively unmatched at this scale when it comes to rapid deployment, mineral processing depth, and delivering full flowsheet solutions in hard rock lithium.

More importantly, the structure is fundamentally different. Xinhai is providing a proven plant design with production linked expectations and clearer accountability around output and performance, rather than a bespoke build with uncertain real world benchmarking.

That difference is significant, it’s not just contractor choice, it’s a shift from a small, flexible in country EPC approach to a Tier 1 industrial model where performance, scale, and execution track record sit in a completely different league.

Brilliant RNS from Graham. Almost a 40% uplift up in the raise price from the previous. Now onto hot commissioning.

At $2,872/t SC6. Zulu margins start to look very good.

At 35,000–45,000 tonnes of SC6 production annually, revenues would stand at $101M–$129M. Based on operating costs of $800–$1,200/t, EBITDA moves to $72M–$93M per annum.

The debt position is well known, Canmax have confirmed as recently January 2026 "that the basis of their prepayment under the Agreement is unchanged and remains for the delivery of SC6 and not the ownership and/or management of Zulu." They want product, not a mine or a plant that doesn't work. The debt will get structured on successful commissioning.

Nice to see another move up. Spodumene pricing from $2,540/t to $2,730/t SC6 shifts the economics some more.

At 35,000–45,000 tonnes of SC6 production annually, revenue moves from $89M–$114M to $96M–$123M.

Based on operating costs of $800–$1,200/t, EBITDA moves from roughly $60M–$80M to $68M–$87M.

In the immediate it's all about getting the plant to run, once that is overcome they instantly have options..

Xinhai are huge compared to Stark. Theres no comparison, they are leagues apart in experience and capabilities. Stark are a small western EPC contractor, Xinhai a Teir 1 EPC+M+O mining solutions provider.

About Xinhai

Founded in 1997, Shandong Xinhai Mining Technology & Equipment Inc. (www.xinhaimining.com) has grown into an integrated EPC+M+O mining solutions provider with end-to-end capabilities across engineering, procurement, construction, project management and operations. Leveraging two manufacturing hubs, an in-house metallurgical testing and research centre, and a global workforce of more than 1,300 employees, Xinhai delivers standardised, scalable and cost-efficient solutions to mining projects worldwide.

The company has served nearly 2,500 mines across multiple jurisdictions and executed over 600 EPC+M+O projects, establishing a differentiated position in full-cycle mine development. Xinhai's operating model integrates metallurgical research capability, engineering expertise, manufacturing capacity and lifecycle management to support clients in developing modern, energy-efficient and commercially sustainable operations.

Xinhai has an established track record in Zimbabwe, having completed the feasibility, design and construction of a 2 Mtpa lithium beneficiation plant within 364 days, with a peak on-site workforce of over 1,000 personnel (approximately 400 from China and 600 locally engaged) between June 2022 and June 2023.

 

The company is currently completing its fully-owned gold processing plant in Gweru, in central Zimbabwe, which is expected to commence operations in January 2026, and which has been supported by a construction workforce of approximately 130-180 personnel since May 2025.

Tungsten prices are at an all time high, all parties are well incentivised to get RHA sorted but once Zulu is resolved. They don't have the bandwidth right now. IF Zulu is succesful here, everything will be forgiven.

Acker - I agree, there are lots of options once the Xinhai plant is running succesfully, that's the hurdle and the biggest catalyst right now. The EPO represents 202 km² (20,000+ hectares) when fully expanded from the original Zulu licence area. The original core mining licence is only 3.5 km², so the EPO represents a 50–60× increase in exploration ground. Bringing in more circuits to scale from a Mid-Tier operation to Teir 1 will be something Canmax and the likes of Glencore will encourage and provide the necessary funding. First things first tho.

If the original 4,000 tonnes per month plant (48,000 t/year ore capacity equivalent) can be brought back online alongside the new Xinhai circuit, this would represent approximately $20M–$38M in additional revenue and roughly $8M–$20M in additional EBITDA, assuming similar cost structure at the margin. On that basis, total group EBITDA could move to roughly $70M–$100M per annum, implying $350M–$500M (1.1–1.6p) at 5x, or $560M–$800M (1.8–2.5p) at 8x, depending on execution.

This is exactly it. If the plant works it does indeed fly, it's a massive risk ON moment at that point.

Q2 commissioning is a major near term catalyst, on success the market will forward price a lot of upside almost instantly. The shift to Xinhai (a larger China based, lithium experienced EPC contractor) marks a clear upgrade from the earlier Stark (Western, smaller) built setup, which struggled to deliver consistent performance. At circa £5M market cap, if the new flotation plant achieves steady state operation, the re rating potential is significant given it traded at £225M. Two TR1's have cornered over 18% of the float in the past month.

Spodumene prices are up 64% YTD and at around $2,540/t SC6, the new Xinhai plant is designed for 15–20 tph of ore feed, or 131,000–175,000 tonnes of ore per year, based on 1.7% feed grade and 80–90% recovery from testwork, producing SC6 concentrate.

That points to estimated SC6 production of roughly 35,000–45,000 tonnes per year, generating approximately $89M–$114M in annual revenue at current pricing. With operating costs around $800–$1,200/t SC6, this implies roughly $60M–$80M EBITDA potential, assuming recovery, grade, and throughput can be maintained consistently. On a conservative PE multiple of 5x EBITDA, that implies roughly $300M–$400M valuation (1–1.25p), while at 8x EBITDA, that moves to $480M–$640M (1.5–2p).

Strong finish. Nice to see. Yes there maybe a few more raises to come but i'm confident the lows are in and it seems the TR1s are as well. At this market cap the risk v reward is skewed heavily to the upside, if the plant works. It's currently priced to fail at around £5m, valued like an early stage explorer. The previous high was £225m market cap, that disconnect will close up real fast.

Have a great bank holiday weekend all!

Thanks @Snowking - Graham mentioned that in his recent interview, at the moment the original flotation will sit idle but with modifications it could be brought in as a second plant effectively more than doubling production capacity. I've run the absolute base case but you're right if that happens then we move from a mid tier to tier 1. Let's get the plant working, that'll be a nice problem to solve once we're at steady state production. This went from 0.02 to 1p only 2 years ago, Canmax clearly don't want to run a mine and want to see a working plant. The debt on current margins can be repaid in 2-3 yrs, it's patently clear it's going to get restructured once they see it functioning. We could see a repetition of the rerate from two years ago.

Atb

Great to see Spodumene flying, the economics of Zulu are improving everyday.

At $2540 If Zulu can get into steady state production, the numbers start to look very good. At 15k tonnes per year, you’re talking roughly $38.1M in revenue (15,000 × $2,540). If they can push to 20k tonnes, that jumps to about $50.8M (20,000 × $2,540).

On the profit side, assuming rough operating costs of say $700–$900/t, you’re looking at margins of about $1,640–$1,840/t at current prices. That would imply something like $24.6M–$27.6M profit at 15k tonnes, and $32.8M–$36.8M at 20k tonnes.

10 days ago, on Q2 commissioning and optimisation:

"We are continuously in contact with people like Glencore there are one or two other interested parties too, they are waiting obviously for us to get this plant up and running and show that we can produce. When that happens I think our whole world will become a massive oyster."

If Zulu runs properly, the Canmax exposure could realistically be worked off in around 2–3 years, once stable production is achieved and the plant is running efficiently. At roughly 15,000–20,000 tonnes per year and a lithium price of about $2,300/t, gross revenue would be in the region of $34M–$46M annually. After allowing for operating costs (say $800–$1,200/t in the early stages) and ramp up inefficiencies, the realistic net capacity available for repayment is more like $15M–$20M per year. On that basis, a $45M exposure could be cleared in roughly 2–3 years. So no, it's not worthless, there's a multi million dollar plant, it needs optimising.

RHA could be a great Tungsten producing asset given global Tungsten prices. I'm sure it will happen, once Zulu is resolved. I think it's just a bandwidth issue right now, all hands are on Zulu given the requirement to get into production fast.

I understand your frustration, you're nursing a very big loss. We've all been there, you do this long enough you're going to have them, got to move on if you no longer believe. All the best tho

The 500k @ 8:09:32 is a BUY. I bought at the same price about a minute earlier. That price didn't stay for long.