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No one's claiming they won't raise again. There could even be another extension to the farmout completing. I'd much prefer it Stanley was sold as that would give them cash for quite some time but you and your aliases need to give it a rest lol
@Tame2017 - it is worth whatever the market is willing to pay for it during the build up phase. Like with Pulsar and HE1 the shares hit almost £100m mcap. Mosmans licences are in the prolific Amadeus Basin with Helium shows of of 9 & 11% at Mt Kitty & Magee and other surrounding plays. Australia is a safe jurisdiction and there is also infrastructure in place to pipe the Helium.
If they strike Helium in commercial quantities and commercial can be as low as 0.2% and the flow is good to great then there is no telling where it may go. North of £100m given HE1 recently tagged £91m on 4.7% Helium shows.
Greenvale
Before Brinsden spent seven years building and then nursing Pilbara Minerals’ Pilgangoora lithium mine through its difficult early years, veteran geologist Neil Biddle led the company.
It is believed that Biddle was the first person to mention the world spodumene on an Eastern States roadshow when talking about the Pilgangoora discovery.
Lithium was unheard of as an investment class at the time, which is not all that long ago actually.
Anyway, Biddle’s early adoption of lithium as an opportunity for the then-junior Pilbara Minerals – it’s now worth $12.2 billion – was not a one-off event.
He is a serial opportunist, something that is playing out at his Greenvale Energy, currently trading at 8c for a market cap of $32 million.
Greenvale’s main go is a torbanite project in Queensland that could be the import-replacement answer for Australia’s bitumen needs. Who would have thought?
The project is still being worked up but potentially at least, it could be a nice earner for a company with Greenvale’s modest market cap.
Not content to be investigating torbanite alone, Biddle has now added helium and (natural) hydrogen to the Greenvale story by picking up a 75% interest in an advanced project in the Amadeus Basin in central Australia from AIM-listed Mosman Oil & Gas.
The project comes with a big prospective resource base. Natural hydrogen has the greenest of green credentials compared with the energy intensive alternatives while helium is in a class of its own because of its particular attributes, and its myriad growing high-end uses.
The initial focus by Greenvale will be on seismic work on the gas accumulations, followed by drilling. End users will be watching given the current dominance – in an under supplied market – of Middle East and Russian helium supplies.
The farm in gives Greenvale 75% working interest and Mosman 25%, but for that they free carry Mosmans interest. Greenvale will pay $2m for Siesmic & $5.5m for the drill. The farmout alone is worth $10m, essentially giving Mosman a free crack at 25% of $13.2 billion which is about $3.3bn to Mosman.
Plugging the numbers on ChatGPT for EP145, we are talking bags on build up and a strike:
If the rate is $500 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) and you have 26.4 billion cubic feet (BCF), we first need to convert the rate to dollars per million cubic feet (MMcf), as the volume is given in BCF.
1. Convert the rate from dollars per Mcf to dollars per MMcf:
$500/Mcf = $0.50/Mcf
2. Multiply the rate per Mcf by 1,000 to get the rate per MMcf:
$0.50/Mcf * 1,000 = $500/MMcf
3. Now, calculate the total value:
Total value = Rate per MMcf * Volume
= $500/MMcf * 26.4 million MMcf
= $13.2 billion
Therefore, if the rate is $500 per Mcf and you have 26.4 BCF, the total value is $13.2 billion.
This is excluding the Hydrogen or Natural gas
Not to mention the farmout on EP155 which is thought to contain Helium resources of 111BCF. Worth another $55bn or so.
Based on CPR 2U calculations.
They will get Farmout approval on EP145. A few investors made inquiries with Greenvale towards the end of February, they're very close to receiving ministerial approval now. Also last placing was only a month ago so they're ok until June (imo). They've also said they're now looking to commercialise Stanley by way of a sale, Carrol mentioned this in his latest interview and again in the production update 16th February 2024 "This flow rate is positive for commercialisation of the asset through ongoing cashflow or sale of the asset." In the interview he said the price tag would be significantly more than they paid for it which from memory was $1.1m, they've since increased there working interest and lifted production to there target which was around 100 boepd. Keeping it conservative if they can get even $2m for this that would give them almost 2 years worth of cash.
Helium assets have Teir 1 upside and will be in play imminently hence long lead items ordered.
"Final preparations for the commencement of two flow tests are advancing at Hickory-1. Flow tests in the Upper SFS & SMD-B reservoirs are set to deliver critical information for development planning, reservoir deliverability & fluid compositions. "
Lets see what if anything is released on ASX tonight. Flow test commencement will see this bring the 0.39 warrants into play imo. A move to 0.45/0.50 before they start converting. So a good 50% or so move from here is likely
From 9mins 15secs, Greenvale on Mosmans EP145, for anyone looking to get up to speed quickly:
https://youtu.be/PVPcfJVTvvU?si=qAqGAzTbX4wc2Eag
MSMN will retain a 25% working interest in Helium permit EP145, Greenvale will earn 75% by:
- Paying year 3 Program, including Seismic. Estimated to be circa $2 million
- Funding Year 4, including drilling one well with a cost cap of $5.5M
-- Year 3 to be completed by Aug 2024. Then drill!
Just waiting on Government approval now, stamp duty paid by Greenvale.
HE1 is a great blue print for MSMN. One of only two UK listed Helium plays. £1.8m v HE1 mkt cap £90m.
"EP 145 & EP 155 both contain wells that flow tested. Amadeus Basin contains some of the highest concentrations of Helium globally"
The only other Helium play listed on the London markets is HE1 and that has risen from circa £6m mcap to £91m, over 1000% just recently. Mosman is just £1.8m mcap here (free carried to siesmic and a drill), the opportunity is quite staggering on Farm-out approval.