Member Info for Tracylied

They should lift the bid soon to 15p. Supply must be tight

If the management have much more to lose than I do. I will settle on 250k shares personally. I have increased my target holding several times but with events looming the buying window won't be open much longer.

5 MMs on 16p now. I suspect that the price will be walked back up again once those Rollovers check out.
The AIM loves a winner, once 5G kicks off and Ethernity start securing mass deployment contracts Ethernity will be the angel of the AIM.

The value of the company and therefore the share price will determine the threshold for dividends, how much can they take off the balance sheet if the company is valued at 50m, probably 5m tops. . The share price is important to me but not because I ever intend to realise it. The market cap needs to increase significantly to facitate a worthwhile dividend.
I see Ethernity generating the most once 5G is deployed globally. That will be another 10 years. If I realise a share price of even £5 I will be selling it prematurely as dividend payments could achieve that over a couple of years.
As a measure the share price is all we currently have, it's what people on this board seem to judge the company by. Personally I don't get it but maybe it's a British thing. If the share price is low it is not a reflection of how the company are doing but it represents the mood of the market. A market that has nearly no understanding of the business Ethernity are in.
The share price is only important to me if it is low and I have funds to buy. When it comes off the bottom I'll leave the buying to others.

3:1 buy to sell ratio. PEEL dropped 16-15 which triggered a couple of nuts.

I am not here for the share price. I am more interested in the dividend potential. With near fixed costs and near 100% margin on some products beyond breakeven profit will escalate rapidly. With management holding huge chunks they will want to reward themselves some how. I have to see dividend payments certainly within two years from now. Royalties will provide a very predictable baseline recurrent income that will provide confidence to offload cash to dividends very early. Obviously starting small but numbers will grow quickly with so few shares in issue.

Alco there are some AIM investors but the majority are just gamblers looking for a 5%+ score. The market puts off many foreign investors and indeed it is very hard to buy on the AIM from abroad.

Yes nice find and Ethernity are from the 10 the best value by far. That is largely because it comes from a almost zero market position. You pay almost nothing today for the products, research and market position. It is crazy that it's valued like this but here we are. I am much more comfortable here than in a company with any future success priced in.
China 5G is gathering momentum, after China we will see the rest of the world follow over the next 10 years. I am happy to hold every share all the way through as dividends will be huge. Profits will come from 5G Telecom connection and from new markets created by 5G. It will replace many traditional markets.

It won't take many at this price to substantially increase the price. I know 3 Israeli investors who have taken 150k each since 12p. I don't hold out much hope for the AIM investor but I believe that we'll see more new investors taking a position despite the AIM listing.
Ethernity can only make themselves as visible as possible now and wait for the wave.

Yes I think it was about long term predictable contract secured revenue that will allow for long term dividends.

I guess that the main risks are in market share for Ethernity.
Just how much of the huge pie will they get?
Currently there is no pie so it's pointless looking at current income or current contract wins. That is simply a distraction right now, yes it provides some tick over funds but nothing else. The prize is in mass deployment.
Will there definitely be a pie?
Yes for sure, China are heading towards mass deployment driven by Covid 19 stagnation. This has accelerated government urgency and the industry is responding. The rest of the world will follow. Currently there are no commercial true 5G deployments. Despite a city block somewhere having 5G speeds it's not 5G just a sped up access to the network.

Will Ethernity be invited to the table when the pie is served? Yes absolutely, Ethernity products will form part of the standardisation of how globally 5G will look. Even American companies will be in this process, they cannot afford to be excluded.

Are Ethernity products unique or are there many to share this huge pie with.? There are other providers however none offer the performance and versatility of solutions base on the ACE-NIC100. ACE-NICs provide acceleration for essential network virtualization functions, improved performance, monitoring, load balancing, fault management, and security, all at a fraction of the CPU overhead. Router-on-NIC Layer 3 switch-routing functionality differentiates the ACE-NIC family from other SmartNICs, which only offload Layer 2 network functions.
When will this start?
Currently the pie is baking, it will need to cool then served. Telecom in China are currently evaluating how they will connect and add value to services for their clients. They will all go down the same road but may use in-house code or opt for a off the peg network platform. Certainly we'll see and have seen vendors invest heavily in developing their own products to work on ACEnic-100. So mass deployment is flagged for H2 2021, it will turn into a race to market and we can expect a feeding frenzy as crunch time looms.

So I think that it's given that the world will not change direction and 5G is on it's way now. So what are the risks now?
Ethernity raised a small amount of cash and linked more to warrants. The warrants at 20p triggered at 30p will definitely be needed. We can in my opinion expect to see that in the short term. The requirement for the second amount depends on timing but the trigger is set and live for 12 months. If in 12 months this share price is not several times the trigger price something has seriously gone wrong.
Looking further forward. 5G fixed and mobile access is a open door for Ethernity. It opens the edge products and all types of flow control products. With 5G Ethernity has a huge market to sell into. A very small amount will be direct most will be through regional tier 1 and 2 vendors. Ethernity IP will be mass produced by many vendors under licence with initial and ongoing royalties. This will sec

Alco me too. I never dreamt that I would get the opportunity to hold so many. The only negative for me is the AIM and UK investors.
I am an investor in people normally but I saw this developing January 2018 and I have been researching ever since.

I believe that they have a very realistic and tight grip on expenditure. Clearly if the don't make the warrant thresholds then something has gone very wrong. They have recurring revenue coming in and project 2m of additional income from existing avenues. That is a significant increase from the previous year.
In addition the last few lines here points to immediate opportunities.

"The increased drive from the Chinese markets, focused on building a 5G mobile network based on NFV, was the sign we have been waiting for over the last two years. It is based around the building of the edge compute virtualised network together with a need for extensive performance, for which Ethernity technology is the best fit, providing greater value added solutions that are appreciated and demanded by our customers. We have therefore taken the strategic decision to focus on porting the ENET flow processing features on the ACE-NIC100 to accelerate performance of the 5G UPF data plane. This has resulted in multiple engagements and design wins for our ACE-NIC100 during the first half of 2020 with the potential onward conversion to multiple delivery contracts during H2 2020 and into 2021"

Lets see how that goes

To be clear my targets are well above 40p. I believe that we can see a dividend and share price value well over £10 as 5G ramps up. Again that is not the 5G network but the multiple services connecting to 5G. The network is the enabler both mobile and fixed. More compute will come to the edge, the landscape will change beyond recognition.

Fairview it's first 5G then edge. It is not about deploying 5G but about Telecom connecting to 5G. If you imagine 5G is a rail network 5G is the track and Telecom run the trains. Ethernity will allow the Telecom to track their trains, run the points, count the passengers and see in real time where all their trains are. Ethernity products are so efficient that they can have 80% less trains and carry the same amount of passengers.
Funding won't be a issue with the warrants triggered. Even with half the warrants they will be fine. If the share price doesn't exceed 40p in the next 12 months 5G will have been shelved and the world will have ended. Zero chance in my opinion.
Ethernity has produced an array of products for Edge. Saving, power space and speeding flow. It is clear that edge will become more important as 5G drives user cases.
We need to get away from the media view that 5G is all about download time and speed. It's so much more.

Also they don't need any more funds. The route to cash positive is very clear. Overheads are fixed and contained. The products are ready to go and easily customisable although the beauty of standardisation is there will be very little adaption. Just different billing counters and any local quirks. Ethernity won't have any tooling or production costs. In fact I see very little opportunity to increase headcount or costs. Many of these products are virtual and have a 100% margin.

Sorry that was for Fairview

Geri the method is patent protected, the reason that it won't be directly copied is quite simple. Ethernity are involved in the standard setting for 5G along with most other stakeholders. The standards are required to access and connect to 5G networks. As such you cannot just connect anything to the network in a commercial form. The standards are not set by government but all the players who make the network interoperable. As such these players agree to defend IP. Ethernity will for sure licence IP in return for royalty and upfront cash. This will be regional and will provide Ethernity clients to sell virtual services to.
All the main players will be holders of IP and it will be like being in NATO.

Geri. They are very far ahead and in fact they are the only complete solution in addition the Ethernity firmware can be deployed on any third party fpga.
The reason that until now we have seen only very small deployments is simple these are the only deployments that have been made so far.
The UPF and many other resulting functions are to connect telecom to the 5G network. The 5G commercial network will be deploy in 2021 in China. The Chinese Telecom committed to selling 5G services are entering testing now to determine how they will connect their mobile and fixed asset clients to the 5G network. We know that 3 of the Chinese majors are going down the fpga UPF route and will be lab testing Ethernity really any time in the coming weeks. In China there will be thousands of opportunities to save on capex by flowing and accelerating, some of those will pick Ethernity.
There are many more applications that are just coming to light now, definitely in the core where redundant capacity can be eliminated and in wearable and hub wearable compute.
Ethernity will be in discussion with many providers and vendors picking their solutions path. In my view Ethernity will win the lions share of the business but even if they flunk out and just get a small bit part the result will be huge from this market cap.
In summary, ethernity has a market leading product that is essential for economic deployment. Mass deployment is starting very soon. The first market is China where Ethernity has positioned well with Fiberhome and has access to all the big Telecom.
Don't be distracted by the small contracts so far these are very specific markets and nothing like mass deployment that's looming now.

Kit story is compelling. Of course many short term bottom fishers won't ever find out. One day soon they will look back on it with regret. Ethernity have to build a volume of recurring income and that will happen with mass deployment. That predictable reliable income will trigger dividends much earlier than many envisage. Compared to where we are now the first dividend year could easily be more than the current share price.