Member Info for Tracylied

Although the prospects are much better I still believe that £5-10 will be the max range. That's because of the dilution.
This is the AIM and absolutely anything can happen. I believe that$25m revenue next year and $50m the year after will do it.

They will be and £5-10 is still very realistic even given the bigger shoes that they have to fill.
I doubt that it will be spent on luxury toilet paper for the executive restrooms.

The presentation was clearly to soften the blow of the ridiculous placing price. They have had months to deliver the presentation into a hungry market but they deliver it on a 30% drop. Rising trend wiped out not supported or fuelled as a presentation should do. It was a total waste of opportunity and clearly demonstrates that they only bother when there is something in it for them. They wanted shareholder participation in the placing so produced a presentation.
I see exactly how their minds work and expect very little creativity.

Ethernity FPGA based solution is so efficient with offload of functions from the CPU to the appliance that 100 Gbps of forwarding can be achieved with one core instead of 20.
This is highly relevant as it saves Capex, space, power and ongoing costs.

I have been digging around for information on the Tarana deal and these are my findings.
520000 connections since April.
1400 base nodes installed or projected for 2021 globally. Connections will rapidly increase as new locations come onstream.
Expected revenue for Ethernity at current production around $750k 2021. Headline cost around $500 a unit.
Ongoing income. Yes but I can't get guidance on it. Over 5 years I expect each installation to realise $1000 to Ethernity.
Exclusivity. No but it's a adapted solution on a unique product. Ethernity has many SoC connected globally.

The price is not my concern. We were in a rising trend and now it's been turned. No bounce so we can expect mid 30's or less until news turns it up.
Momentum takes time to build. We waited months for it and as soon as we got it they did its legs.
Anyone watching the market could see it building, see it coming I don't get why they would trigger on a cold share price.
I believe that the money is for opportunities in China which will be the hot market next year. Sitting with the big boys requires a stake.

Being walked down to the placing price like naughty children being taught a lesson. What a terrible week it's been. No RNS we would have been +10%.
Masters of terrible timing this bunch.

I guess WINS have some shares. All buys so far despite the red and WINS drop. I guess that they took some shares from somewhere.

We can all be very certain that a business as huge as TietoEvry and a market as huge as China will produce a large volume of orders.

https://www.tietoevry.com/en/newsroom/all-news-and-releases/press-releases/2021/09/tietoevry-opens-new-rd-center-in-nanjing-china/

Link from TietoEvry. Reported elsewhere. I have been building some background the last few weeks and have confirmed Ethernity role and commitment to the collaboration. This is not just a UPF option TE are exclusive to Ethernity aceNIC.

In China others will use Ethernity cards but I am sure that this will be a major route to market.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/enabling-small-cost-efficient-5g-core-functions-needs-harri-salomaa

Quite old now but shows that this is an established arrangement. I know that TietoEvry are in advanced stages of a plan to deliver a private network in China that will produce about $2m of sales to Ethernity. One of hundreds if not thousands of potential opportunities for the symbiotic relationship.

I see that TietoEvry has established a new R&D facility in China with a large focus on the Telecom and Core sector. I also know that Ericsson was running the same facility and has transferred it's staff to TietoEvry.
This has all happened in the last two weeks. We know that TietoEvry is looking for a large sector share and has hundreds of staff in China. We know that TietoEvry has a new UPF solution using Ethernity cards. We know that China has an unsustainable fantasy 5g network that's at capacity and unable to advance with acceleration and a capable UPF.
Ericsson has withdrawn from this facility but maintains 4 others. TietoEvry can use this R&D capacity to build network ecosystems as Integrator or to develop systems for OEMs.
I suspect that Ethernity are in there with them and are investing in capacity alongside.
The joint product is built but it's not a plug and play, it's a solution open to adaption and the Chinese Government insists this is done in China.
This is a clear signal. Ethernity has invested in peer to peer advertising with support from the Israeli government.
TietoEvry and Ethernity has a go to market joint operation.
I say no more.

The presentation clearly shows huge growth in 2021 and sales are current. Although as we see here " to service expected mass deployment growth on anticipated new contracts from end 2022 onward"
So we have current contracts and anticipated new contracts in mass deployment end 2022 onwards.
Tells us nothing we didn't already know but good to see it written that there will be more of the same to come
In the near term we can watch sales and resultant production orders increase.

It does state as clearly as possible what the funds are for.
"providing additional working capital to allow the Company to support the growth and delivery of the recently secured contracts and engagements for its 5G offering towards successful field deployments"

This is supported by the presentation that details multiple contract opportunities. The detail we lack is the functions and investment/development required by Ethernity. That's because we have no indication how these OEM deals work. We are told by Marc that Ethernity are not a hardware company, they don't make hardware so it leaves us none the wiser as to who does and the cost to whom.

This fund raiser is £11.6m or so which is huge. All said the average price will be around 45p a share assuming a 90% take up of 60p warrants.
Not great value for us and the timing was appalling given the share price momentum at the time. 60-70p was inevitable given the interest.
Obviously these things take time to organise and it's unfortunate for shareholders but it's part of the risk.
I am more focused on what £11.6m buys.
This year has been excellent for the company and after starting with a vague coming soon outlook we now have sales and contracts that will produce more sales, many more sales.

The presentation was revealing. The DU can provide 3-5000 card sales. So we are talking about Europe national deployments by that size or partial deployment on a National US network.
These contracts between the server vendors and their clients are gaining momentum now and really a announcement is near term. The numbers will be around $5m a throw and multiple in nature. I still believe that we'll see design fees of around $2m.
TietoEvry collaboration has sparked my interest again as the UPF China market is maturing and China can't move forward adding compute. I know that we'll get a Private network Contract very soon with TietoEvry as Integrator which will produce around 2000 card sales. There should be many more in the pipeline. The difference between China and US is that China really has no option but to move rapidly.

Well it was yesterday and it wiped 30% off of the share price. It's
Unfortunately the most important and recent information we have. It's also raising some discussion about the management again. I don't think that we should be ignoring that.

Page 8 of the new presentation is interesting with the projection graph for sales. The Tarana SoC it shows with modest growth and the other opportunities with huge growth for 2022 (3 months time). No scale or anything useful like that but it does
Illustrate in a child like way how they see it going. Steep rise in everything except the Tarana SoC and kicking steeper in 2023.
Using a measure on say $4m this year we should see $20-25m 22 and 35+ 2023.

I guess that you really have to ask yourself if that's true why are they trashing the share price for a couple of million when they appear to have working capital.
Maybe to let some key shareholders in? Why and the amounts are small. To take more for themselves? They are really just maintaining percentage. To fund something specific? Maybe but they should say that even with no details.

I guess it all boils down to trust and yesterday they looked amateur again in the financial aspects. Unable to deliver a consistent message. However the failings of the Financial side can in my opinion be wiped out by the success of the portfolio and ramping sales.

It's little reflection on the company that we had a 900k seller at a premium to a placing. In order to encourage investment they have to talk to people and people talk to other people. I said at the time that it's a crazy time to sell 900k shares into a rising trend. It wasn't crazy if you knew that you will replace them with cheaper shares
The AIM is totally unpoliced, zero chance of getting caught so it happens. The chances of the leak coming from Ethernity are very low. I have several contacts working there and two with partners working there and they all didn't know anything about it. As they are not shareholders and can't buy the AIM from Israel they didn't much care.
Tuesday will open slightly red but we should see a rebound.

djia absolutely agree. We'll see the bounce and rising trend picked up again. Interesting as the last two weeks we have seen that only to be dashed by a blindside event. The details of this were tight and I suspect that money has come from the US mainly.

The presentation suggests 6-10000 units annually. I think that we all expect modest figures from this management. However $6-10m from one of several NOW production orders is a significant chunk of next years running costs covered in just one contract. The sales could be much much higher given the 5g deployments will gain pace and IDU will be one of the growth sectors. Sales are not some vague time in the future they are now and will gain volume quickly, certainly this year.

If the IDU has expected sales next year of 6-10000 what cost is that ramp up or is it all built by the OEM. The unit cost is around $1000 to the OEM who obviously mark up from there. I was told that the IDU would sell at $3-4000 a go. The unknown is how it affects that aerial vendors sales. The product must be superior and unique as an IDU so they could snatch huge market share.
How does Ethernity respond to that, does it require investment... I don't know and can't get a straight answer.