RE: Townfan26 Mar 2015 14:47
I got the forecast from Digital Look's SBS page. Its gone now (I suspect due to the actual results being out). But the forecast for 2015 is now £3.3m. My assumption was that these were broker's forecasts so was surprised there was no profits warning - but maybe I'm wrong.
But in any case if you add the 2012 results of SBS, Vindon and Inverclyde together you get a number way more than the SBS 2014 pre-tax profit. Even adding back the "non-recurring" gives you a number that's only about £100k better.
That's why the £2.9m forecast looked about right - add together the 2012 pre-tax figures (totals about £2.1m), throw in a bit of growth you would expect naturally, say 10% over two years - giving £2.3m and then some synergies and cost savings from eliminated duplications following the acquisitions (e.g. senior people), etc - so say another £0.5m and that gets you to somewhere near £2.9m.
Regarding your other question I mainly go for ETFs for the bulk of my investments and some corporate bonds for balance. Then I throw in an oddball or two - like the recent Chapeldown crowdfunder - that had EIS relief and at least some hope of liquidity to realise in a few years as its listed.
It does surprise me that there is EIS relief on quoted stuff. It gives you an automatic 12% compound growth in value even if the company only manages to hold its price and a good hope of realising it as shares are marketable, unlike a lot of EIS stuff. Even if the company share price loses 10% of its value, you've still got a 8% compound growth, which is none too shabby these days. As the weather was good in 2014 I thought the harvest would be good (which it was) and of course wine in the cellar is a guaranteed revenue stream for a couple of years at least, which supports the share price.
So its mostly safe-ish plus a small amount of oddball stuff for me - still kicking myself that I was too slow on Tekmira