Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Nogoodpleeze,

Don’t confuse your “reality” with reality. A few misstatements of fact in your email not to mention that you didn’t even talk about the price of gas which is still way below levels when I3E set their Capex and Dividend budget and is 50% of production on a boe basis.

How does the shutdown at Corrib help Inishkea ? I'm assuming that the shutdown is at the onshore processing plant which case Inishkea would also be shut in if it were developed.

Would be lucky if we were 50% Oil - unluckily we're 50% liquids of which about 50% of that is Oil. NGL's are currently priced at around 30-35% of WTI.

I don't care about Jim's blogs / tweets as don't many others - you claim not to be Oilman Jim so why do you care - puzzling to some why you promote his blogs so much and defend him.

Anyway - my point is he is not widely followed which anyone who is interested can check out for themselves. Oilman Jim just has a catchy name but unfortunately no worthwhile content to put behind it !

Now let’s look at Oilman Jim - Louis10 often points

Poster to his twitter page and the “ high” number of followers.

So Jim has about 7900 followers - very significantly less than the two other gentlemen I highlighted and not a lot I would suggest for someone that’s been promoting his twitter account since 2013.

It’s also telling that his average tweet garners 200 to 600 views with a very occasional tween getting 2.5k. So even his most popular tweet has only about a third of his followers tuning in and an average tweet have only 1/10 or less bothering to read. This says to me that 7900 have signed up to “follow” incorrectly assuming that he is a recognized expert only to read a couple of tweets and not bother to tune in again. I would suggest that this is an indicator of someone that is not widely followed and puts out low quality content - hey but that’s only my take !

“As I said at the time ….” - Jim look at the recommends you get here and on other JSE boards - no one rates you or your posts.

So what kind of following does Jim have on twitter - I spent 5 minutes yesterday comparing Oilman Jim to a couple of recognized industry experts.

First off I looked at Eric Nuttall - nearly 80,000 followers, posts regularly getting over 150k views with an average somewhere near the number of followers he has. Also regularly on programs such as bloomberg and regular attendee at top tier industry conferences.

Next up I looked at Shubham Garg - only on twitter a couple of years - followers increasing week by week and currently around 27k. Top tweets over 100k views with an average number somewhere close to his number of followers. This tells that virtually all his followers check out his tweets on a regular basis as they do with Eric Nuttall - an indicator I would suggest of quality content that investors appreciate.

Jim,

The other thing is that you're a trader - i'm not. Trouble with stop losses - you have to know when to get in and out. If your a believer in the mid to long term prospects of a Company this makes it more difficult. Very easy for someone after the fact to talk about stop losses. I think I'm correct in saying that this is the 1st time you have spoken about stop losses on this BB - which appears typical - Captain Hindsight comes to mind.

Also another reminder that I provided the links to the information you said did not exist - please provide the back-up to your earlier comments on i3e Management that i'm sure does not exist - your chance Jim to prove you are not full of hot air !

Jim,

For most small caps you are probably right - for I3e which you appear to know vey little about - you are completely wrong.

i3e has hundreds of producing wells which means you can model the earning reasonably accurately so unlike most other small caps, far fewer unknowns and less surprises.

Oilman Jim - parading around on multiple boards under a false name (Louis10) at the same time as promoting your paid blog is very deceptive.

Olderwiser is respected on this board as well as others as being knowledgeable and having integrity - these are not characteristics that I would ascribe to you.

Good post Ark and I agree - also good to see WTI creeping up to WTI $74 and AECO almost at CAD2.60. Oil futures are also moving higher signalling a tightening market - so maybe the clouds are starting to lift.

Stock buybacks - not sure if and when they will commence - based on SP it should be now !!! They still have a little distributable reserves available that they could utilize. I'm not sure what constraints there are in the loan documentation - maybe I missed it but I only saw reference to dividends in the update. Logically you would think the lender would be a little more relaxed about buy backs as the value is retained within the Company whereas dividends are paid out.

Finally - trying to figure out how much of the CAD 75m facility is left to spend - the biggest unknown is whether any of the Q1 2023 capex spend is already accounted for in the 2022 results. Probably not, but its possible given that the drilling started early in Q4 2022.

Ark,

I will share it once i've updated / corrected . I compared against FY 2022 results and found a couple of tweaks that need to be made:

1) H1 gas sales were within 2% of actual (lower) and H2 projected was about 20% higher which made no sense. I queried with the Company and discovered that gas is sold based on monthly average and not monthly index - this corrects the error.

2) I was out on the hedging losses/gains which is obviously important in trying to compute FCF - in H1 they lost £20m as per interim results which is shockingly high but makes sense given the very high Oil prices but FY year results show a loss of around $19m implying a gain in H2. My spreadsheet indicated a further loss though much smaller than H1. Again makes no sense from the hedges they had in place. Anyway I have a query in with the Company and when they respond - hopefully I can correct / adjust.

Once i have these two fixed I can plug into the 2023 sheet and get a better projection.

Ok no need to check out the links I provided but are you going to provide a link to verify your comments about the i3e CEO. If you don't, I assume that most reasonable posters here would have to conclude that your full of hot air and best ignored.

Louis10,

You must have missed my earlier post - here are the links again to the misinformation oilman Jim was spreading that you didn't think existed. Can you kindly provide the link that supports your earlier post on Management misbehaviour which in my opinion is completely unfounded and untrue - hey but i'm prepared to eat some humble pie - lets see it !

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYRPtcToA4oY8dav5Q?e=91SLTH

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYRQrWvegfY9cu4B_w?e=TVcgyc

https://www.share-talk.com/oil-man-jim-company-oil-gas-podcast-blog-1st-april-2020/

Jim,

you have been thoroughly discredited - leave it alone. You've been asked to provide a reference to your fraudulent claims - you cannot do it - why don't you do the honourable thing and just disappear.

OK I guess we can agree to disagree on the balance sheet - I think its reasonably robust and should improve month by month as they accrue cash.

With regards to negative net current assets - current liabilities include those that are due within 1 year - this would include the old Loan notes which were due to be settled in full 5 months after the cut off date of the report and were was circa £28m. Now this loan note is replaced with a new 3 year facility I would expect this negative situation has been reversed and now in the positive

Spike's post has a few likes so obviously several shareholders feel the same was but I think it's only right to point out that i3e did not initiate the discussion on buybacks - they were addressing more than one Investors question on the issue.

I don't think it's irresponsible either to be talking about m&a or buy backs - had i3e hunkered down after the failure of liberator and not taken the decision to make several large acquisitions in Canada (at the bottom of the market I may add with Oil in the $30 to $60 range ) then we wouldn't be here on this BB - i3e would already be bankrupt. As Majid said - low prices present an opportunity with those that have access to capital.

Here's what Warren Buffet had to say when he received some pushback from investors as to why Berkshire were buying back stock:

Warren Buffett pushed back on buyback critics, saying they are “either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue.”

And this is the reason (IMO) that they should absolutely be looking at it:

https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q3%20Commentary/2022.Q3%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf

Thanks for the support Spike - it appears that its only Jim/Louise that's giving me grief and I think most have him pegged !

"I3Es balance sheet is weak - last year they paid out all free cash generation in dividends and ended the year with substantial negative net assets"

This I don't think this is correct - they spent nearly $90m on capex on top of over $21m in dividends - I think this speaks to the strong cash generative properties of the business. Obviously with commodity prices lower in H1 2023, cash flow is lower but its still generating tons of cash and it should be noted that despite the heavy spending last year - it was funded almost entirely from cash flow i.e. very little cash drawdown.

I'm not sure what you are talking about with regards to "substantial negative assets" - just went back to the yearly report and they are reporting 168m pounds in net assets !?

Spike - would agree with your 1st point on dividends.

On the 2nd and 3rd point I think you are well wide of the mark (IMO)

1) I3e have said from the very beginning and well before the latest RNS that Capex budgets depend on Oil and Gas Prices - prices go up, budgets increase, prices go down then Capex goes down. We've all see prices come down significantly particularly AECO gas so I cannot see how i3e loose credibility for this decision.

2) On buybacks - the decision / rationale is more nuanced - I3E have also set out from the very beginning that at high Oil prices, development will be via the drill bit and at low prices growth will be more likely through M&A. As a couple have mentioned here and an opinion I'm in agreement with - if your looking at M&A then surely you have to stack that up against buying back your own shares and I think i3e agree. I3e still have CAD35-CAD40m left on the drawn portion of the loan - so I expect them to do something with it shortly.

Jim,

I don’t make stuff up – attached link / reminder of the unsubstantiated accusations you made a couple of years ago:

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYRPtcToA4oY8dav5Q?e=91SLTH

https://1drv.ms/i/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYRQrWvegfY9cu4B_w?e=TVcgyc

There is another tweet somewhere, where I pushed you further to provide the link / source and you couldn’t. I recall telling you that I think you were making it up. If you haven’t deleted – I will find it.

Stas20 – if you get a reply from Camarco – please feel free to pass on these screenshots if you feel appropriate.

In tracking down the above tweets – I came across numerous podcasts in 2020 trashing management – but the one below is my personal favourite and worth a good old laugh:

Oil Man Jim Company Oil & Gas Podcast & Blog, 1st April 2020 – Share Talk

“It’s a dog of a deal” – As many posters will have been reminded in the recent i3e Podcast– the Toscana deal included the Clearwater Acreage acknowledged by most Industry Experts (I would not include Jim in this category) as pretty much the best in North America. It also set i3e on the path to be a mid-tier producer with currently over 20k boepd production. Prior to this deal i3e was facing bankruptcy. Jim is a trader – seems to push conspiracy theories and misinformation to support his trading and many of his “wins” seem to be Captain Hindsight situations. As you can see from the above podcast, he had absolutely no idea what he was talking about which I think is quite often the case.

Provide your link Jim, sorry I meant Louis10 – most posters here would be interested in seeing it. If any are having doubts about their holding – it would probably make their decision easier!

Jim - i'm referring to fellow investors here on this BB who I think would certainly be interested if "their" CEO had acted in anyway that was not aligned to their best interests - stupid question !

I suspect that you will not be able to provide a link as your certainly were not able to previously when I challenged you on your twitter account several years ago when you repeated the same accusation - naughty boy Jim - keep digging your hole !