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DEC I3E
1 Week -3% +3%
1 Month +3% -8%
3 Month -22% -12%
6 Month -19% -33%
12 Month -54% -47%
"Meanwhile my dec & enog shares are racing ahead while i3e languishes in the gutter & publishes a 2022 esg report"
Are you sure ????? - whilst both have been pretty poor - i3e have out performed over 1 week, 3 months and 12 months.
DEC has a very tasty dividend (21% yield) - but there is reason. Anyone interested in DEC should research their decommissioning liabilities. There are a couple of eye opening articles on the net.
"WHI is contemplating whether a dividend is supported at all, which it is. But it foresees a 25% dividend cut."
Cannuck - As is usual with most of your posts - I’m struggling to make any sense of it. I looked at WHI's report again and unless I’m missing something - they run the "car crash scenario" at WTI $60, AECO CAD 2.73, Capex at $10m and with the CURRENT DIVIDEND i.e. no cut. So where are you seeing WHI forecast a 25% dividend cut?
With the current combination of Oil & Gas prices (WTI 72 & AECO CAD 1.75) - monthly cash flow is around $200,000 above the "Car Crash Scenario"
Since i3e have paid WHI to put out this report - logic tells me that the upcoming dividend is covered and providing Oil and Gas prices stay at or above current levels - then future dividends should be covered also. It’s quite possible that Gas could go lower and/ or i3e may change their pay-out policy / cash allocation priorities, however, the WHI report is very recent and one would assume be in some alignment with i3e's thinking.
On the subject of Gas – prices have been far weaker in North America than is typical for this time of year due to surging production, high storage levels and abnormally warm weather. So the back drop does not look great for gas prices in the coming months, however, its by no means certain that prices will crash and there are green shoots appearing on the horizon which may well be in 2024 and not 2025:
1) LNG Canada is due to commence START-UP this year, which means commencing taking in gas, cooldown and filling LNG tanks. Shipments are currently not scheduled until 2025 but start-up means it should be drawing gas from the grid in 2024.
2) See the attached report from page 20 onwards. These guys are some of the smartest people in the Natural Resources Sector and they are predicting a structural deficit in gas in the coming months (North America). That’s got to be good for prices assuming they are correct. Also worth a listen to the podcast with the Pine Cliff CEO that I posted a week or so back – he’s possibly a little biased but he thinks AECO is the place to be in 2024
https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2023.Q3%20Commentary/2023.Q3%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
Why not now ? Whats are you suggesting - if anything the resport seems to be a little late.
Stas,
You need to remember that dividends and Capex are now subject to the quarter end financial ratio checks - so unless these are waved or partially waved - the time tables for dividend announcements have changed - the quarter end was only a few days ago so not late considering this.
The previous guidance was NOI in the range $90 to $95m. I think they are going to fall just short of this at around $88m
The other thing to remember is that the dividend / capex is based on the Q4 numbers (historical). WTI and AECO averaged about $78 & CAD 2.20 respectively during the quarter. I need to double check the financial ratios they use but I believe there should be no issues with the Q4 dividend (paid in January.
...and this one from 26 minutes onwards
https://moneylifeshow.libsyn.com/election-year-effects-will-stave-off-recession-until-2025?__hstc=214401352.67916fa54bc1f8c3c01507bd1dbb6ab6.1702117802803.1703745902197.1703837309437.5&__hssc=214401352.1.1703837309437&__hsfp=467677067&hsCtaTracking=32869ea4-0d9e-41e0-ba41-1be7054eefa1%7Cdb2a67eb-924f-4886-a30f-d3cc39c20dbd
Europa Oil and Gas
@Europaoilandgas
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2h
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@Tennyson_Secs has increased its Target price for #EOG to 4.97p following the announcement of our acquisition of a 42.9% interest in Antler Global, which owns an 80% stake in the EG-08 gas licence offshore Equatorial Guinea. This offers c. 5x upside from the current share price.
Worth a listen
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BdGYrLWVRLJX?s=20
Anyone investing in DEC should probably look into this:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diversified-energy-responds-market-reaction-144500270.html
https://www.ehn.org/abandoned-oil-and-gas-wells-2659296731.html
This is probably why:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diversified-energy-responds-market-reaction-144500270.html
I did look into DEC a while ago to figure out why they were so cheap - they have massive decommissioning liabilities. They talk about decommissioning 214 wells in 2022 but I read an article that stated they have over 70,000 wells.
Another good interview - David Hobbs currently has a lot of credibility with the market / investors and as Baxi has said is backing it up with sizeable share purchases.
Who else fast forwards Jay to hear what David Hobbs has to say !
After being told about the fantastic Management at Shanta Gold and the focus on shareholder returns as opposed to our "useless management" . Interesting to hear now what people think after the recent takeover bid !
It will be interesting to see the market reaction!
"more shares issued" - I dont think so, not in EOG anyway - it states a "cash subscription" for shares in Antler.
Peakybrum,
A respectful reply but I would have to say that their is only a couple of things I would agree with you on:
1) I agree wording is important but I think you are reading more into it than I am. "Pleased" and "delighted" are a bit like happy and very happy - similar but nothing like "believe" and "confirmed". They are quite different - just look up the definition on the internet. The wording on RNS's are usually very precise - send PANR and email if you want to get further clarification on what they mean by 'believe".
2) One definition I saw on the internet for "believe" - something assumed to be true but not proven. This is the crux - PANR "believe" they have proven commerciality - but the proof of the pudding is whether the lenders agree.
3) You are free to take "believe" in any which way you want - but its quite clear that this RNS is from PANR and nothing to do with Schlumberger, Bakers Hughes or Netherland and Sewell.
The figures are correct - 6000 mcf is approximately equal to 1 boe
A question for you Olderwiser:
"Confirmation in unmistakable terms, these discoveries are commercial, the last bear argument has been declared null"
Is this really correct - look at the wording again.
"the board BELIEVES that a successful demonstration of the commerciality of its Ahpun field has now been achieved"
This is not as definitive as them saying "a successful demonstration of the commerciality of its Ahpun field has now been achieved"
This is not pedantics - I did email the Company some while ago about the latest testing and whether they had gathered sufficient data to obtain financing. The response was not to dissimilar to the above i.e. words to the effect of "We believe we have sufficient data / information to satisfy lenders but there are no guarantees"
I am a shareholder and so i do have a confidence in Pantheons messaging and ability to deliver especially with David Hobbs on board - but there are no guarantees that they come to a successful conclusion.
JD-Nau - thank you.
Do Reabold respond to shareholders - i have no emailed in two questions via their contact page on the website.
"I3e follows the price of oil down but then doesn't follow it back up? I thought we sold oil."
We sell 22% Oil, 26% NGL's & 52% Gas
Gas if you havent noticed is trading at CAD 1.90 (average for December) which is a monthly low in 2023 and multi year low.
Good news is that WTI is back around $74. So the dividend is secure imo (DYOR) and again in my opinion the cash flow / balance sheet is strong enough to announce a $8-$10m H1 capex program. Upcoming news:
1) Q4 update
2) 2024 dividend and capital program
3) Drilling update - if I was i3e I would be looking at giving a production update now if the drilling results are good. All 3 wells are drilled and the fracking should be complete also.
last years Capex program was announced on 22nd December - however, with the required quarterly financial checks - this years program may only be announced now in January unless they get a waiver from the lender.
Uggy - do you have a link to where they stated all permits by year end?
Sam Moody's salary and share awards are now secured for a couple more years - a huge weight off sharholders minds. Means Sam can now concentrate on the golf.