Member Info for toneman

Wow, the sooner they can kill this stupid Bitcoin the better. What a massive waste of energy. With any luck it could reach a natural end to mining once the energy demands outweigh the currency value assuming speculators aren't dumb enough to just drive up demand for the stupid thing.

Priceless troublesome. Also...some very foresightful lyrics from Gilbert and Sullivan there...

In terms of news psmith64, I may be over-interpreting but the recent announcement from Linde regarding green hydrogen for buses in China for the Olympics ought to be considered as positive news for ITM shouldn't it? I can't see why Linde would use any other electrolyser than their own ITM-Linde company which is surely a requirement for ITM factory production.

A back-of-the-napkin calculation would suggest that it is between 10MW and 50MW (latter v. optimistic) requirement and so could be considered as £5m to £22.5m revenue for ITM. That's either one sixth or over one third of the £30m you're looking for.

All going in the right direction. I'm a bit suspicious of the 'Gas' vs 'Gas + CCS' comparison. That smacks of industry manipulation towards CCS in order to 'justify' it as being the best solution. Still it ultimately all comes out in the wash which is why we're now seeing figures for wind and solar having to be corrected massively downward. No doubt the figures for Gas + CCS will end up being revised upwards when the cost of CCS doesn't meet the optimistic projections by 2030 and beyond. It'll make wind and solar (and hydrogen) look amazing by then.

If anyone is interested in the actual scale of constraints, here is the data...

by year... https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/indextotals.php
by month... https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/indexbymth.php

By July this year we'd already exceeded the whole of last year's constraints. Partly due to covid and the consequent drop off in electricity demand during some of the windy Spring months.

Where are all the trades though? How does this go from 9m shares traded 3 months ago, 2m shares traded 2 months ago, to less than 8000 shares traded today? Where is everybody?

I expect they were probably curtailing some of that wind capacity too. At 1.00am they probably couldn't turn off enough remaining fossil burners to use all the wind power available at that time. ...now if only there was some way to store that excess generation...oh, wait...

dsc1978, it'll be interesting to see how they manage the power for the infrastructure for Tesla trucks. It's a huge power demand. I imagine Tesla will manage it by incorporating one of their MegaWatt packs at each truck-stop...hard to see how they would do it otherwise. Not quite as easy as their EV supercharger network, but if anyone can do it Tesla can. Elon seems to be able to make things happen when he sets his mind to it.

Personally I still think H2 trucks are a better option, but hey ho.

Nel doing well today...up 8%.

WACO, the price comes from the after hours trade in the auction period. You'll find these invariably at 4.35pm and marked as UT (Uncrossing Trade). In my experience no-one on these boards seems to have a definitive explanation of the specifics of the UT, and I've looked it up many times before and still never fully understood what it really means. In the end though on a down day like today you'll typically find the UT is a low price and is likely the end of a large sell trade the market makers have been filling all day. On an up day, you typically find the reverse.

Nel ASA (Nel) will announce the second quarter 2020 report on Wednesday 26 August at 07:00 CET and will host an open presentation at 08:00 CET.

I know bilbo, that's the problem. The more I think about it the more I believe they mean 2GWh of capacity with undeclared power output, otherwise for example if they meant 2GW power output and, say, 8GWh of capacity then I'm sure they would quote the '8' figure because it's bigger.

The article's not very clear, do you think they mean 2GWh of capacity at 500MW. Most of the other projects seem to be 4:1 Capacity:Power.

My problem is that I've had a number of shares in mind that I want to be my core holding for the next few years. I've sold some at several intervals on the way up but in most cases I've never managed to take my opportunity to buy them back (except recently at 356 and back in at 245, but it's left me too close to my core holding now to sell any more on these small bounces.

I'm not a chartist, but with my limited interpretation of such things there's a falling resistance line which was about 290p yesterday. Is it just a coincidence that we just about closed there yesterday and today it turns? Are there enough chartists to turn the share price?

Actually I'm pretty sure that even without the charts a lot of investors would say to themselves "this is getting quite high again I don't mind selling now, a little early maybe but I don't want to miss the peak again".

On last night's Mad Money Jim Cramer interviewed Steve Angel, Linde CEO, about a variety of things including green hydrogen.

Of note Linde CEO mentioned their recently signing agreement with largest renewable power company in China, near Beijing, and going to build electrolysis equipment to make green hydrogen for 300 buses for use in Winter Olympics 2022.

Mad Money is available as a podcast and Jim begins the topic at 13:26 minutes in.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/linde-ceo-at-home-ceo-analog-devices-inc-ceo/id147247199?i=1000488636113

https://www.linde.com/news-media/press-releases/2020/linde-signs-mou-with-china-power-to-develop-green-hydrogen-energy-in-china

Once or twice bilbs.

Is it that ITM have been slow to recognise the value in creating partnerships and collaborations? Or have they simply not been picked when the teams were being formed?

psmith64, although I agree with you that the current SP is ahead of all released revenue statements, I don't believe it's as far away as you suggest.

You said "ITM need to be turning over £ 500 million and making £ 50 million to justify the current SP". £50m profit would make sense for a non-growing dividend stock and would be yielding 3.5%-4% (10p eps on 250p-285p SP). That would be fine for people to get a steady, boring return at 250p.

But, as I've said before, ITM is a growth stock so it doesn't make sense to measure it like that unless you think that a £500m revenue and £50m profit is where this company is going to end up once it's finished growing. If green hydrogen is going to be successful and by association ITM is going to be successful then it cannot possibly stop there as it doesn't even scratch the surface.

Even this first factory and associated service and warranty contracts should generate closer to £1bn revenue. It would make sense that there should be at least one more factory built in Australia in the near future, arguably raising the total to £2bn revenue.

With only the first factory starting to operate as intended would justify the current SP by 2022, so we're only really 18 months ahead which is about right for a market already pricing in what it thinks it knows.

If the current number of shares in issue remains static (which it shouldn't) then you're looking toward £10 per share if growth stopped at 1 factory. I see ITM as a multifactory company by 2030 if it gets this right. You might think I'm being too optimistic, but if I'm right then the share price has got to get from 280p today to 3000p in 2030. I'm not saying it can't dip to 175p for a very short blip over the next three to six months, but I certainly won't be surprised if it doesn't.

Hopefully that means we can get back to normal shareholder supply and demand. We'll get a clearer idea of what the market thinks and the direction we're headed.