Member Info for toneman

Just finished listening in on the APPG Hydrogen meeting. The message was plainly "We've got all these projects that prove hydrogen is a solution and now we need government to get behind it so we can roll out". What wasn't clear was whether anyone has a plan for exactly how to roll out. It's as if they haven't recognised the sheer scale of the roll out. Perhaps they are confident that government will draw up a master plan. I wouldn't be that confident.

What do we have to do to get a workable master plan?

The Hydrogen APPG will host virtual fringe events at the 2020 Conservative and Labour party virtual conferences.
The one at Labour starts today at 1.00pm. No idea what it'll be like, but if you're interested you need to email appghydrogen@connectpa.co.uk to register your attendance and receive further joining instructions.

Nikola has really messed up Nel's money-raising activities today. Today was supposed to be the close of their latest share subscription, but the price has dropped below the offer price. They've extended to 28th September, but I'd be surprised if that will fix things. They are allowed to cancel the subscription offering and I suspect that's what will end up happening until all this blows over and perhaps Nikola/GM commit to their future in line with Trevor Milton's original ambition.

Playing the long game I don't think this changes much for Nel. Without Nikola still many manufacturers appear to have judged long-haul trucks need hydrogen. You can tell me if I'm wrong, but I think Nel has probably the most experience of any in this market for producing hydrogen filling stations. For what it's worth I actually topped up with Nel today. I'm a bit wary that I should have waited until after battery day tomorrow to maybe get a better price...but hey I may top up tomorrow too if there is another substantial drop.

Quote from Nel press release...
"In light of today's share price development, the Company has resolved to extend the subscription period in the Subsequent Offering until 28 September 2020 at 16:30 hrs (CET). A supplemental prospectus (the “Supplemental Prospectus”) will be published following approval by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. The Company reserves the right but no obligation to cancel the Subsequent Offering without notice should the listed price for the shares trade below the offering price in the Subsequent Offering.Eligible shareholders that have already subscribed in the Subsequent Offering will be offered an opportunity to withdraw the subscription."

Perfectly put Seaangler.

Sharpeye52w, hardly, I think he's well off the mark. (No offence intended Mr Smith.)

Running out of cash is certainly a consideration that ITM need to manage better. I suspect they will regret not taking an opportunity to tap the market for more money during the recent period of high demand for shares. Long term though I think they will still find the investment available for the right sort/scale of projects.

There's certainly a good case for profit-taking in hydrogen stocks. But I wonder how much negativity is brushing off from the Nel stock price, especially today. They're taking quite a big hit from fallout over Nikola allegations. Trevor Milton has now stood down from Nikola so it may be that some level of stability can be reached over the coming weeks. If ITM is suffering simply from sector association then maybe the roller-coaster will end soon...but beware 'Battery Day' tomorrow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/nikola-founder-resigns-as-chairman-amid-allegations-sec-probe
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/09/21/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-reportedly-resigns-after-short-sellers-fraud-accusations/
https://www.ft.com/content/d4fc81eb-ae24-4039-b535-0eb5d119dc84

1LEO, you know they can both be right...psmith short term, citi long term. Although I am only defending psmith on the basis of what's possible, not what's probable. 175p was/is certainly a possibility however I think today's 125p is likely a step too far (unless ITM completely self destruct with an appalling report next month).

Interesting stats taskmaster, but I wonder what the predicted stats are if everyone drove BEVs. If 50% don't even have an option to charge from home then that 87% has got to come way down. Question is then which goes up to compensate. My guess is that places of work will be encouraged to have more availability, so probably that and en-route will be the main ones that increase.

Personally I'd still abandon BEV and switch all to hydrogen to save all this unnecessary meddling with the grid. I understand the efficiency argument over BEV and FCEV but I just can't believe that justifies the demands on the grid rather than simply replacing diesel pumps with hydrogen pumps. After all 20+ years ago diesel pumps were uncommon yet we managed to change half the unleaded to diesel pumps when the government suggested we all buy diesels instead.

BuilderPete, it sounds like they're not going to worry about generating more for the spike but instead switch off our high power home appliances - electric heating and EV chargers - at times of limited supply...

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/electric-cars/353209/energy-firms-want-right-switch-electric-cars-charging-home
https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/energy-firms-able-turn-your-22703216
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/19/critics-smart-meters-right-along2/

Nice catch taskmaster. 2.8m does seem a little high. Assuming they were fast chargers that you'd connect to for an hour you could service 28m vehicles in 10 hours (considering day-time charging only). Moving into day 2 you've charged up to 56m vehicles which would easily cover all of today's vehicles. As you point out, considering the number of homes charging as well makes the 2.8m public charging proposal seem even more far-fetched. I wonder whether the SMMT are really looking to improve charging or are over exaggerating the case as a subtle argument against changing from fossil to battery.

I always wince when the BEV brigade claim that hydrogen's no good because there's no infrastructure. And then I read things like this...

"Millions more EV charge points needed to meet buyers’ confidence in 2035 target. Some 2.8 million public EV chargers will need to be installed by 2035 to achieve the UK government’s zero emission-capable new car market target, a study by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) and Frost and Sullivan has found. According to the survey, there are currently 19,315 on-street charge points in the UK, which means 507 on-street chargers will need to be installed daily until 2035 to get the country’s public charging network ready for mass EV adoption, at a total cost of £16.7bn."

https://www.cittimagazine.co.uk/news/electric-vehicles-charging/millions-more-ev-charge-points-needed-to-meet-buyers-confidence-in-2035-target.html

So if it's ok for the BEV guys to need 2.8m more charge points, why is it not ok for us to build out a few hundred hydrogen stations? A network of 100 to 400 hydrogen stations across the country would look pretty close to full coverage based on the traditional 5 minute stop and fill without having to go too far out of your way to fill up. Our roll-out is just painfully slow.

They used to blame the chicken and egg scenario - can't build the stations with out the cars - can't build the cars without the stations. Well the cars do exist now so it turns out it was the chicken after all. Too chicken to build the stations. C'mon hurry up with the H2 stations...I want my FCEV.

It's been mentioned here before, and most of us don't believe charts determine the next move do we?

But for what it's worth it could be argued that the triangle pattern that's been in play since the beginning of June could have witnessed a breakout on the upside with today's close. That may signal a return to the bull trend. But with 'Battery Day' next week (Tuesday) and ITM finance statement due October I don't know that I'd have the confidence to suggest that it'll hold. Could be fun though.

Picking out the Citi 'buy' recommendation from PM44/1LEO Post/Link -

CWR Target: 810p (+44%)
ITM Target: 430p (+56%)

Caveat - Both labelled 'high risk' and no time-frame indicated.

Just a reminder to others - you can read two articles from The Times online each week for free.

It's hard to figure out the auto makers sometimes. Ballard I understand. They're agnostic to the end use-case. But Audi are part of the Volkswagen group which I thought came out recently as massively against fuel cell for personal vehicles.

crazyinlove, no just last years date to go by 3rd Oct 2019. They told us it was coming on Mon 16th Sep 2019...so I guess we should be due a similar RNS any day now for results this October.

Perhaps what's needed here is some optimism...so here goes.

Consider that what's been happening over the past four months is that many of us who have been in ITM since 15-40p have been top-slicing profits selling some shares to newer investors. These newer investors are the new LTH happy that ITM will continue to grow for the next 10 years. So rather than considering themselves now sitting on a loss they have been happy to build their position at a few slightly lower price points. At some point the early holders either sell completely (as we note from several individuals here), or are happy with the profits taken so far and happy to let the rest ride. That's when the price stops drifting down, and that could...could...happen following next months trading update.

Now regarding the trading update...we've been used to quite weak 'good news' announcements ahead of the ITM trading updates and mid/end-year reports, and I still think that's some misguided idea that it will distract us from the fairly poor released figures...which it doesn't.

What if this time the silence we're experiencing is because they actually have a pretty upbeat trading statement full of stronger opportunities from ITM-Linde, and that the factory is ready to go, with the first 300MW of electrolysers teed up and ready for assembly.

Or have I just been at the sauce again...?

Anybody...?

That's right. It was on the Sky News channel. I wondered if it was timed with our new trade deal with Japan, but I guess not if you've seen it a few times before. Cheers.

I was amazed to see an advert on TV last night for hydrogen. It was from the Government of Japan and was essential a very much shorter and edited version of this youtube video... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXvpJsdmkQQ

I don't watch many TV adverts so maybe it's been around and played a lot already. Anyone else seen it?