Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Even the UK oil and gas industry’s trade body seem to want to disassociate themselves with the undesirable label now. They're changing their name to "Offshore Energies UK".
https://oguk.org.uk/the-uk-oil-and-gas-industrys-trade-body-is-expanding-to-cover-low-carbon-energy-generation-and-getting-a-new-name/
Welcome MrBlobby. I'd be a little careful about the idea that adding ITM will "spread the risk". If hydrogen fails again to maintain traction, as it has repeatedly, then both share prices will sink without trace. It does however spread the risk of backing the wrong horse if there turns out to be an outright winner. My expectation is that hydrogen is a reality this time so a spread of these should average out the 'winners' and 'losers' (they might all be winners as the potential market is huge). My broad-brush understanding is that Nel's technology is currently lower cost, but is about 2x or 4x larger footprint and scales well to high MW. Nel does have a PEM solution in their US factory so covers both technologies. ITM has no intention of adding other technologies to their portfolio. I think the prospects for both companies are roughly equal. So far Nel has won where I thought ITM would be successful and vice versa. I think their strongest competition is coming from Plug Power who have an excellent global reach and cover both electrolyser and fuel cell solutions. The relative minnow of the ones I follow closely is McPhy, which seems very undervalued in comparison. Personally I am slightly overweight ITM with the rest of my hydrogen portfolio equal weighted on Nel, Plug, McPhy, Ceres and Ballard.
I agree with Barclays. History shows shares overshoot and undershoot. I'm confident we're in the middle of an undershoot and a recovery to something more appropriate will happen by about mid-year. As a general direction of travel my prediction is 500p by June, although I think this stock is probably better taken with a longer term view.
Doli, I agree, I listened again to their answer to the 16% revenue question and it didn't make any sense. They were talking more like price benefits for higher volume/bigger units, but that surely would increase the margin not decrease it to next to nothing. Still confused. Maybe when they release the documented answer it will be clearer. Not holding my breath though.
The customer for this latest order is right on Nel's doorstep. Nel has a big factory in Heroya. It was anticipated that this was a 'given' for a Nel electrolyser.
"The electrolyser is to be installed at a site operated by Yara Norge AS ("Yara") located at Herøya outside Porsgrunn, about 140 km southwest of Oslo. The site covers an area of approximately 1.5 square kilometres and is the largest industrial site in Norway. The Porsgrunn site produces 3 million tons of fertiliser per year."
Major, have you read ITM's press release this morning. There 24MW order is for Yara in Heroya. That's right on Nels patch. I'm a bit surprised. But my guess is they buy their hydrogen from Linde and that's an easier door to open.
Any thoughts?
"The electrolyser is to be installed at a site operated by Yara Norge AS ("Yara") located at Herøya outside Porsgrunn, about 140 km southwest of Oslo. The site covers an area of approximately 1.5 square kilometres and is the largest industrial site in Norway. The Porsgrunn site produces 3 million tons of fertiliser per year."
Seaangler, the answer to your earlier question is addressed 28 minutes into today's presentation recording.
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/interim-results-36
Anyone who missed today's presentation can watch it again on the InvestorMeets platform.
This link may get you there...
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/interim-results-36
There was one slightly worrying piece of info in today's presentation which I don't think is specifically mentioned in the report (correct me if you find it). The revenue from the 33-50MW full year production is not anticipated until Q4 2022. That means it won't even hit the books by next January's Half Year Results report. So the best we can hope for is tales of moving from negotiation into contract and actual MW production numbers, but the financial bottom line is not even going to show progress this time next year. I can understand why a lot are getting cold feet. It's a slow burn. In more established businesses I'm pretty sure that information would have been treated as a profit warning.
Seaangler, they answered the question which will subsequently be available via the recording an the q&a written responses. To paraphrase...the difference in financial return is down to the volume and product mix. The smaller MW typically from older quotes includes more balance of plant revenue, whereas (I guess) the larger quotes are installed through the ILE partnership so ITM are claiming a greatly reduced share. To be fair you'd better listen to the direct answer when the recording is available in a day or two, in case my interpretation is rubbish. I'm certainly going to have to listen to it again.
I thought the ILE partnership was a 50-50 ownership (I need to check that). So if there is profit to be made from the installation phase couldn't a share of that be attributed to ITM? IF not, who is getting it?
It's a pity there has to be secrecy around the new ammonia project. I bet it's a massive opportunity. Linde recently announced a big project in South Africa. Do we think this order is directly related? I suspect it is. If the sp is dropping just because of the expected low financials, then once again they're completely missing the bigger picture.
So far getting the same treatment as Mcphy results yesterday. They were down 10% whilst the rest of the sector was up 7%. So if the reaction continues we could expect to lose all of yesterday's gain and maybe another 10% on top. Rocky road.
The number I was waiting for is the pipeline change since mid-December update. It hasn't dropped by 200MW (the ThyssenKrupp announcement that went elsewhere). Does that mean the ThyssenKrupp project was never in our list anyway? Or have we added a further circa 200MW to take its place?