Member Info for toneman

Join the InvestorMeet presentation on 14th Sept and ask them directly.

There's something weird about the numbers. The RNS says they went from 7.95% to 6.98% but the ITM website has them at only 7.31%. The RNS would make that closer to 6m shares sold vs ITM figures at 2m. It's not a big deal, but can anyone tell me if I'm misinterpreting what I'm reading?

Are you expecting them to sell them all? That would be a little disturbing.

Maybe if JCB are now finished with their sale of shares it could relieve some of the downward pressure on the stock.

...then again...

Glad I've got shares in Plug as well as ITM. Plug leaving ITM in its dust yet again.

https://www.ir.plugpower.com/press-releases/news-details/2022/Plug-and-Amazon-Sign-Green-Hydrogen-Agreement/default.aspx

Come on ITM. Catch up.

They claim their dumping of all Nikola shares doesn't change their relationship - we'll see.

https://nelhydrogen.com/press-release/nel-asa-share-capital-increase-registered-and-sale-of-nikola-shares/

To add to bilbs excellent analysis I would recommend people listen to Andy Marsh (CEO of Plug Power) and contrast that with GC. Andy is always jetting off building relationships and setting up contracts and agreements globally and there's always something he's "looking forward to announcing soon", and sure enough, soon you actually get an announcment. GC on the other hand only talks about how big the market is but never any insight into any dealings he's personally having with potential customers. You can sometimes tell when someone is itching to tell you something about an imminent deal but they're not yet allowed to divulge info yet, and you almost never get that from GC. I should acknowledge that their big deals have been announced out of the blue...but when was the last one, I can't even remember.

I'm sure there was a recent presentation that clarified their intention was 5MW system blocks at the new factory and <2MW blocks at the original factory.

Something also seems weird that GS recommendations don't appear on the "Broker Ratings" lists. Anyone know why that is?

It's documented that they initiated their rating of ITM back in February as a HOLD (target around 280 I think).

lejjb, Linde first bought in Oct 2019 with 95m shares at 40p (£38m for 20% stake). They were dilluted in the next funding round in Oct 2020 when Snam bought 12.7m shares at £2.35. Linde participated again in the funding round of Oct 2021 buying 5m shares at £4.00 (£20m to make up to current 16.31% stake).

The top 7 shareholders hold just over 45% of the stock. Looking at the list, it's hard to see them having any inclination to sell out to a big oil firm. If anything, it would have to be Linde deciding if it wants to buy the whole business. I suppose that could happen, but I still feel that Linde is too close to blue hydrogen to justify a full ITM buyout.

https://itm-power.com/investors/shareholders

"We’ve broken ground and construction is well underway at the Energy Hub project based at MIRA Technology Park in Nuneaton. Together, we’re developing a green refuelling forecourt providing hydrogen and EV charging - one of the first of its kind in the UK.

Our new on-site generation will supply MIRA Technology Park’s businesses with enough green hydrogen to support the equivalent of around ten 44 tonne HGVs per day. These photos show the ground works and preparations, including the base where our #CPH2 electrolyser will stand and the #Maximator compressor."

(I don't know if this link works for others)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/octopus-hydrogen_cph2-maximator-greenhydrogen-activity-6963435242892206080-onXI?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=member_desktop_web

True lejjb. Thankfully I'm neither Prime Minister nor Chancellor of the Exchequer so my views on government operation or taxation policy are meaningless. Happy for light debate. We're not going to be setting the world rules here. All the best.

lejjb, most of those look like the tax breaks/incentives I was talking about. Exceptions being the $500m to Solar City to attract them to a particular state, and all the payments to SpaceX I would discount as its broadly a direct supplier to the government anyway. I'm sure you will find plenty of evidence to show that governments give subsidies and handouts because that's generally what they do these days. That's still my point...it often causes companies to wait for them and delay decision-making. Long-term tax rules to drive a particular direction would be better.

lejjb, I guess we can agree to differ on this one. I could even find an argument for Tesla that backs up my earlier point. Tesla didn't receive a subsidy from the US government, they received a loan which they paid back in full with interest. The tax credits that Tesla buyers received was arguably an approprate tax policy, also my point. The regulatory credits that ICE manufacturers had/have to pay Tesla as they don't meet the EV manufacturing quota is also an example of setting the direction of travel, rather than simple handouts, is also an example of what I was talking about.

Governments, ours in particular, don't seem to recognise that, at certain points in the cycle, the promise of grants and handouts is actually holding back implementation. Companies wait to see if there's a handout coming their way rather than just getting on and spending their investors capital. In my opinion the government should just set appropriate taxes for the general direction of travel and let companies get on with it. There's way more money that investors are willing to risk on these future developments than the governments offer up, yet it's the governments money that seems to propel, or stifle, the companies.

I agree tennents. I don't think the shorters outweigh general sentiment. I think specialist shorters would go big on a stock they thought was trash - like when Hindenburg went after Nikola. But I suspect JPM and BlackRock are just covering other positions they hold - nothing to worry about.

After hours auction was quite a low price so probably driven by trades cashing in 2 days of good gains.

That certainly would be ballsy, but I do hope it turns out to be right. Bright future.

I thought you'd appreciate that one bilbs. I've been meaning to post that for a while for anyone who doesn't follow the investormeet platform.