Member Info for toneman

The UT looks a good volume. The price is a bit low though. The 1m buy recorded around 117p looks more interesting.

Well I'm glad that's over for the day.

My conclusion is that really not much has changed. A case of over-promising and under-delivering perhaps? The whole sector seems to have been over-optimistic about how quickly everything would happen. Now that a dose of reality has sunk in we can get back to a 10+ year growth story which should see ITM (and others) fulfill their potential...as long as the new CEO can push for sales.

I'm certainly picking some up. We haven't been offered these prices since April 2020. I considered it a good price back then for a long term hold and I still believe that. I think we need to look through the bubble in stocks during the Covid money-printing episode and take a position on a long term green energy future.

We discussed the hype cycle a couple of years ago. I guess this is what they call the "Trough of Disillusionment".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

I hope you didn't miss by far Bellers. I think, though, if it approaches the £1 level I will rebuild my position back up to my original long term holding target. With any luck the current issues will look like a blip in the rear-view mirror. I still believe the long-term market is out there and that it is only short-term issues that the company is navigating its way through poorly.

Oops. Oh, yeah, apart from that.

Mark, there was a similar point with Plug Power recently. Their market cap was not much higher than their cash balance. Interesting that it more than doubled in the following weeks (due to Inflation Act and some large sales announcements). I hope that ITM doesn't become a takeover, instead they should take a leaf out of Plug Power's book and go out and secure the sort of sales that prove they can compete.

bilbs, we have assumed for some time that the relationship with ITM-Linde is that the ITM-Linde outfit is responsible for sales and site installation whilst ITM is responsible for electrolyser manufacture. To me it would make sense for ITM to be allowed to go after some smaller sales (circa 10MW) in order to provide exactly the continuous work you mentioned. Having a huge pile of orders to fulfill in 2025 is not providing any short term benefit.

Will be interesting to see if the initial price drop reverses later on as people recognise the positive turn the company is taking i.e. CEO recognises a new skill set is required and spending on 2.5GW factory is too early. The fact they still talk about needing to expand to 1.5GW is still very positive. They've added significantly to the contracts backlog, it's just that the delivery dates are so far into the future they won't be in the results for 18+ months.

I think "Successful failure" is going to be my new 'goto' phrase. Thanks taskmaster.

I suspect that the joint venture with Linde was the wrong thing to do at that time. It effectively puts Linde in the driving seat which sounded like a good idea at the time. It could however be like cannibalising Linde's exisiting business - stealing business from their own hydrogen stream whilst also turning some customers almost into competitors as they can make their own hydrogen. It must be really difficult to manage and no real sense of urgency from Linde as they already sell hydrogen. If this is going to work out for ITM then it's going to have to be straight into large scale as the 10MW-20MW-50MW-100MW ramp, I think we were all expecting, doesn't seem to have happened (judging by the lack of RNS order announcements). In that case maybe the share price jumps to reflect that when it happens. If we're still on the slow ramp then we've definitely fallen behind. It'll be interesting to hear what they've got to say on Wednesday.

I'm sure our country will take the lead as soon as its finished its trials of hydrogen vs electrification, then a set of trials on hydrogen storage and delevery, followed no doubt by trials of hydrogen produced from small modular reactors (once we've built them of course). We should be finished all the trials by about 2050, and then we'll be ready to lead. (Yes, sarcasm. No matter which party, we have a rinse and repeat format for industry and its applications. And I too blame the non-manufacturing, non-engineering, non-mathematical background of the majority of our politicians and civil servants. I keep voting and hoping for better, but still waiting).

Share price this time last year roughly £5. What we need is the excitement of COP to lift us back up to those heights...or some big orders.

Seems like too good an opportunity to miss so I topped up a few. I'll still add a few more if it heads further toward £1.

Keep a look out for a good top up price. JRM and KK are not natural supporters of green hydrogen, but they may only be in power for about 18 months so I reckon a short term drop in share price will be a short-sighted overreaction to their appointment.

Yet more dull-headed policy-making from the EU. It makes a mockery of even having an electricity grid system if you're going to isolate a sector of users from using it. Forcing green hydrogen electrolysers to have to source their electricity from a brand new dedicated renewable supply is certainly one of the big things holding back electrolyser sales. A better approach would be to ask green hydrogen customers to fund an equivalence of renewable supply to be attached to their national grid. In the end it doesn't matter where it goes or who actually uses it as long as it's generated.

Sadly our government is drawn as much to going nuclear as to going green/renewable...perhaps more in fact. I don't suppose they stopped to question what's going on in Ukraine where Russia is essentially using nuclear power stations as 'shields'. I suppose they've dismissed that under the banner "well that could never happen here".

Thanks lejjb, I thought so. I guess 6m shares sold is probably closer to the mark and probably took about a week to process judging by the recent daily volumes. Pity we're not seeing any new strength supporting the price since though. I might pick up another batch if it drops below 150.

Fluctuation, they are usually very good with the questions. They answer as many as they can at the end of the presentation and then they answer the rest offline and post them back onto the InvestorMeet platform a couple of weeks later. As long as you don't ask anything too sensitive (e.g. ongoing contract discussions), you should get an answer.