Member Info for tomglan

Agree with you. I remember it dropping below £5 a share a few months ago and I ended up doubling my position. Would accept £8 but happy to hold if not.

Looks like the market think ENOC's offer will be too puny and will likely be rejected (again).... When are we going to hear about the offer anyway?

I think the reason FMG wants to cap production is that their cost price is higher than Rio, BHP and Vale and they cannot stay profitable if iron falls any further. It's a last ditch attempt in my opinion. The big picture as I see it is that the big three will continue to increase production as they have the benefit of the low cost production due to economies of scale and a high quality resource base. This will drive smaller, higher cost operations out of the market. I'm looking at FMG, Atlas, Cliffs. This will open up more market share to the big three as they continue to benefit from economies of scale and re-doubled cost-cutting efforts. The market share will be solidified as investors are more cautious in future to provide capital to new iron mining projects. If you can produce a product for $10 but it costs your competitor $14 to make.... then flood the market with the product for $12 until your competitor goes out of business.

KievRetailer what is the current situation in Ukraine in your opinion - improving, deteriorating or the same?

So what's the price you all would consider giving up your shares for? Personally I'd go for £8... mainly because I bought in a few months ago at about £5 a share.

Where did you get 800p from?

Just another day in opposite land

I don't think you could go too far wrong with a 3+ year time horizon at these prices. At the current SP I've got the dividend yield as 4.7%, enterprise value to net profit for 2014 as 8.4%, P/E as 10, dividend cover over 2 times. The strategy of reducing costs and driving up productivity appears to be materialising. They have reduced capital and exploration expenditure and reduced net debt as promised. We have to wait and see what management have in mind in terms of shareholder returns for when we reach the sub $25 billion net debt target. We also have the de-merger on the cards in 2015 that could shake things up a bit (it's going to be listed on the LSE as well apparently). BHP have promised to maintain the dividend post the de-merger which implies a higher payout ratio in future. Shareholders can then decide whether to sell the spin-off shares for a quick profit or hold onto them. My only major concern is the price of commodities not picking up in the medium-term. Currently we have been offsetting the falling commodity prices with increases in productivity and cost-cutting. However, I'm sure there will be a point where we are 100% productive and efficient and this will no longer work. I'm sure by this point the competition will have long died off though. Worth a punt.</essay>

Think you may be using dollars instead of pounds in those calculations mate. BHP Billiton diluted EPS for 2014 was $2.59 USD or £1.60 in GBP. Therefore the price to earnings ratio is around 10 currently (£1.60 EPS against £16.00 share price). Rio Tinto diluted EPS for 6 months to 30th June 2014 was $2.37 USD or £1.47 GBP. The full results for 2014 will be released in March 2015. Be careful when using forward ratios as they are essentially built on guesswork. Currency calculations use USD to GBP as £0.62.

Any UK domiciled Dragon Oil shareholders have experience with claiming back the Irish Dividend Withholding Tax?

From their website "The intention is that, subject to market movements, the share price of one New Ordinary Share immediately after Listing of the New Ordinary Shares should be approximately equal to the share price of one Existing Ordinary Share immediately beforehand". On 28th May 2014 Aggreko shares were trading for around £17.49 and were set to pay out £0.75 as a special return of capital. £0.75 is about 4.3% of £17.49. Therefore you'd expect the share price to be £16.74 the next day (as buying the share would no longer entitle you to the special return). However in order to keep the price of the share roughly the same the shares were consolidated 79 for 83. In theory this increased the value of the existing shares by 4.8% and effectively stopped the return of capital from affecting the share price. TL;DR Basically Aggreko wanted to pay a 5% dividend without the share price changing so they reduced the number of outstanding shares by around 5% at the same time.

and just over a week later and they're pushing for £20...