Member Info for tomglan

Not a rapidly growing company but I'll take the 10% dividend yield, (almost) zero debt and decent cash generation. Hope Mr. Khoo keeps up the payments (he had a 26% holding last time I checked)...

Granto what do you mean by 'the Dec is $20 per month'? You talking futures or break-even points or...?

Another 94k shares eaten up today.

Page 22 on 2015 annual report. "Shares are purchased below our buyback price limit (which currently remains at £69.62 based on an Equivalent Rate of Return of 8%). On the 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th of April (2016) Next bought back approx. 90k shares on each day and paid around £53 per share. As the current share price is hovering around £50 I believe Next will favour future buybacks over special dividends.

All aboard the money train!

So according to the report we are only holding $14m in Ukraine at current (page 46). Shame we couldn't adopt this lean approach before. Who'd have thought an oligarch would take the assets owned by the many in order to serve their own interests? </rant> If the current environment persists it will likely be 2-3 dry years of no dividends as the debt is slowly chiseled away. There will also need to be some restructuring work done <insert Caitlyn Jenner joke>. If things get worse then who knows? Doubt any pessimists invest in mining companies anyway. Wake me up in 3 years when net debt is around $500m and the iron ore market has balanced out a bit. GL all.

Totally agree CEO should step down. If they had to keep liquidity inside Ukraine then they could have spread the $180m out over several (stronger) banks. Also how are they managing to continue operating if they lost all their liquidity inside Ukraine instantly? Maybe we didn't need all that liquidity inside Ukraine after all and it could just as well been safely kept off-shore with the remaining $100m. Anyway, there should be a production report on Monday 5th so maybe they'll bundle an update in with that.

Thanks for your posts granto. Just wanted to add my two pence (or 35 pence as of late). So prior to this debacle we had $650m net debt before losing $178m in a dodgy bank. Therefore the new figure for net debt should be around $850m ($828m net debt - $20m dividend). We are just about within our net debt to EBITDA covenant of under 3x. At current prices we are generating around $88m every 6 months. Therefore we’ve lost about a year’s worth of cash generation in one fell swoop. What we need to do now is stop dividends, stop capex (which we’ve done) and build up our cash reserves to assist with the debt repayments coming up over the next couple years. The CEO is a bit of a maverick and if I remember correctly helped cause the share price to plummet in 2008 when he had to sell a load of shares to pay back Goldman Sachs for something or other. From now on all but the bare minimum of cash must be stored safely outside of Ukraine. I've lost trust in the management / CEO and expect an RNS detailing how and why this was allowed to happen. However, we are sitting on a decent asset that has had $2bn spent modernising it so selling out for 35p is not on my to-do list at the moment.

What we've got: (1) a well invested asset base (2) local currency devaluation and lower oil prices reducing costs (3) decent premium paid for our product (4) solid management - managing to pay dividends and reduce debt even in this environment. What we need for the share price to recover: (1) peace and stability in Ukraine (2) iron ore market to recover (high cost production to exit).

Meant long* not short

Derivative houses buying stock to cover client shorts (spread bet) that weren't fully hedged?

From the H1 report: "Ferrexpo agreed to restrict future dividend payments to reflect the higher of either an annual payment of $60m or a 10% yield on the market capitalisation of the equity for the year in question until the 2019 bonds have been repaid." So that means that the dividend payout when the shareprice is around £0.60, like it is currently, would be $60m. This works out at about 6.5p per share or a yield of about 10.8%. However, if the share price increased to say £1.00 this would push the market cap to about $900m. 10% of $900m would mean a $90m payout or about £0.10 per share. This would also work out as around a 10% yield. Is that correct?

So we've got approximately half of our money back for this 'investment'. I would have thought we'd be better at picking up a good deal, what with 30 years of first-hand industry experience. I guess it will make the profit figure look a bit nicer this year (as the original $80m investment was fully impaired if I recall correctly).

Any chance you could let me know who you used to help claim back the dividend withholding tax? It's getting to the point where the Swiss are kindly holding onto a tidy sum of mine

Or how to turn $80m into $40m in a relatively short space of time.

31p?! Might as well give the company away for free

Just scanned through an article that talks about Chinese M&A activity in order to secure future commodity demands. I'm wondering whether FXPO would be a potential target? http://www.mining.com/china-burning-natural-resources/

Just go to the company website > investors and media > demerger and you'll find that "Approval for the Demerger is being sought at shareholder meetings to be held in Perth and London on 6 May 2015." Looks like the split date won't be set until shareholders give the go ahead.

Agree with your Vale statement. Looks like Atlas Iron are having very real problems: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/04/death-comes-knocking-atlas-iron/ Worth noting how close Vale's break-even prices are to Atlas Iron's (especially with IO now under $50). Just waiting to see who crumbles next...

Do you see other players such as FMG, Atlas, BC, Cliffs going bust soon then? Someone will need to stop production and it won't be BHP, Vale or Rio as they are the lowest cost. Doesn't look like demand will pick up significantly so the only bull factor for iron is existing producers going broke. Think I saw FXPO mention a $36 cost price in 2015... hope this is still the case. GLA