Well charts don’t really tell you anything about what is going to happen but are essentially a graphic representation of capital flow. Beware anyone predicting price targets etc. Knowledgeable traders and canny investors looking to take a position will be waiting until it looks like it has bottomed out before jumping in. In the last cycle it was 2 weeks high to low before the price took off again so I’m just guessing that it will be similar this time. Traders jump out between 20-30% uplift leaving momentum chasers and investors with bad timing to hold the bag. The chasers will get restless and start selling and some investors will get the fear and wait until they break even (or can take a small loss) to sell again. Then the cycle starts over. We seem to have confirmed an uptrend and the fundamentals agree so the cycle will continue until a news event changes the cycle or the price reaches a point that market consensus says is fair value and the price moves sideways within a range. Obviously it’s reversed in a downtrend. Absolutely spot on if the BG come back with a no, the consensus will change and so will the capital flow (in a very -ve way I’m guessing)
Bts-The tightly held shares are why it’s good for traders - strong movements on low volume. Current price action is very consistent and has been right off the bottom. A drop below 5.35 would be concerning right now, really though I’m expecting another run up and attempt on 7 next week is more likely than a break below that level.
Ach, I’m going with the theory that there was perhaps a 1 year extension in the bfs but funding parties were looking for 10-year mine life min so the drill programme had to be done. It’s encouraging that there is potential to the south and optimisation to the pit wall design, I think there are many small elements that will combine to bring the same project economics as the pea in under $3 spot with an extended mine life (I’m hopping for 11-12 but we will see). That will put us in the bottom cost quartile (at ~$1.2/lb cash cost of all the projects in development now and give us the boost we need to get us back toward 15p. Not forgetting, of course, that any JV will be based on the existing mine plan and so anything outside that will still be 100% ARS including the, as yet hinted at, high grade resource at depth and all the satellite deposits.
Blog post on the gold market dynamic and where the buying is coming from: https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/02/14/gold/ Gold’s time is coming.
@burtonD I assume this is an paid for article as that is Vox’s business model. Nothing wrong with that and no implied criticism for distributing through social channels but ffs state on the articles that the company has paid for the promotion. Saying that the author doesn’t hold a position isn’t good enough. #standards
Great write up. Nice price action on the chart too. I’m taking the view that we are now in the zone of likely response from the bots govt. It’s getting exciting from here on in! Power outage warning from eskom again today. Mmm if only there was a reliable source of power that could be developed in country to provide base load and renewables to the people and industry of Botswana. I’m sure the govt won’t drop the ball again.
Can you give us a source on that consensus range Zebbo? Sounds like someone is gathering useful data. Also where have you heard that physical stocks are at an all time low? My data source says that stocks are less than 10% down on 5-year rolling average. Lot of good reason to be bullish copper but as you say sentiment is low and it’s going to take something significant to turn that around. A nice tasty strike at Escondida would go down well right now (please no tailings dam failures though)
I fear that trade talks are old news. The damage has been done and global trade has rolled over. 2.45 - 2.50 seems reasonable on a technical view, but I’m still researching and modelling how it’s going to play out and the timeframe so not going to go into detail. If you want to talk further on the macro feel free to email me on my handle @yahoo.com
Not 2m buys - roll over. Copper price is looking uncomfortable. I’m hoping whatever deal is being done is based on the future price because the next few months are going to be tough. Roll on April - can’t come soon enough.
Sorry, you are right it is derisking in project terms but I’m not surprised by market reaction. In the current general sentiment terms it isn’t big enough. Drop was just MMs fishing on low volumes. No one sold off in any significant way. Let’s hope dewatering goes smoothly - that isn’t a given either
BTS - that’s just how markets work. Low volume causes funny things to happen to the SP & spread. JS - because it wasn’t a derisking or value accretive event. Sure it means the team could hit their target with the rig but you would hope that they could! Catalysts: Derisking - Gas flow, RFP award and PPA Value accretive - funding deal, reserves increase, offtake agreement