Member Info for Toffers

Plus it doesn't rule out the 'spouse' may know JD!

And whoever said I've changed tack, no I haven't I'm still in, although as I declared recently, I sold some, and lost some dosh in the process, which didn't make me happy, but still holding the remainder, but the longer it drags on, the more uncertainty it fuels, only natural imo. As I said earlier, 50/50, no one knows which way it will play out, unless you have insider information to hand!

Someone seems to have forgotten that he has purchased with a 'spouse' and not alone. Wouldn't you say 'We'?! Could be anyone!

Of course he sees value, but he needs a heck of a lot of finance to turn it around, he will have to take the current debt situation with him, and that isn't easy, especially when you look at what's happening in the retail sector generally, and Ted Baker's news yesterday doesn't help. I'm sure he wants it, but as a businessman, his financial advisers will no doubt advise that he get it for as little as he can, given the current circs, and no doubt the funders he's looking at, feel the same, as they are taking the brunt of the risk for the immediate future. It's not an easy one this by any stretch of the imagination. It's like houses, pre pandemic, house prices were surging, pandemic hit, people were stuck indoors, couldn't go the shops for retail therapy in the same way, so turned to buying online. House prices dipped, no one wanted to buy a place without outside space any more, they felt they were prisoners in their own homes, everything changed, and since the pandemic, the pendulum swung and it became a buyers market and no longer a sellers market. It's just beginning to correct itself a bit, but during the pandemic, a lot of retail businesses went to the wall, especially those who weren't fully able to handle internet retail sales and the huge logistics that goes behind that, such as combining courier contracts and warehouse/storage facilities, many businesses weren't prepared, and others overstretched themselves to take on extra commitments to try and deal with demand, and if you let a consumer down, they will remember that more and go elsewhere than when you deliver ahead of their expectations!

I've absolutely no idea where this will go, the only thing I do know is that superdry appear to be doing the right thing by trying to gear themselves more to internet sales, but whether they can exist medium to long term, and how they can change to adapt to new market conditions, who knows.

The upshot is, I'm still holding, but have no idea which way this will go at all, and as time marches on, I question whether JD would put his hand in his own pocket, which I doubt, or whether he might try and form a consortium, I don't know, or whether he lobs in a bid or two which the Board rejects out of hand, or he comes up with something astonishing with him believing he can turn it around, I just don't know, and neither do any of you!

It's not a turnaround as still holding, but my guess is that JD has been to the Board with an offer, and it's been refused, and that's why the Board have gone running off to Hilco so as to try and keep the lights on for a bit longer and see if JD comes back in the meantime with a higher bid. I think he's bid, but it wasn't acceptable. I've therefore tempered my expectations to either a lesser bid than most are expecting here, and no further bid from JD. As he needs to announce I imagine PUSU by a week tomorrow 5pm, then not much time to wait and find out now. As I said 50/50, but I think if there is a bid which the Board feels it needs to communicate, then it will be lower than expectations and the Board might advise not to accept. I suspect the Board and shareholders will want JD out if he isn't successful as the sp isn't in the greatest of shape per se.

my views.

my views.

If there's no money to run it, you're stuck with a depreciating asset, just like you can buy a rolls but if you can't afford the petrol, you're stuck with a depreciating asset you can't run. So all this talk of mega valuations is futile, it is what it is, at the present time, and what someone is willing to pay for it, at the present time, knowing they will need to spend money to turn it around and take that risk.

Still holding, but it's a definite 50/50 and none of us can deny that, we haven't a clue which way it will go. My only question is how strong is JD's conviction, in that if he can't get funding, will he fund it himself, but he hasn't said, so that leaves it at 50/50 bid or no bid?

Something doesn't quite hold with me about the Kellets.

He's been a city trader/analyst.

So why buy high? you would think they'd be buying low and selling high.

I don't think they are here for news, too risky.

I suspect they will sell some if not all just before news and the bank holiday and their sells will not be shown until after the bank holiday, on the Tuesday or Wednesday, but in the interim, they will be banking on a rise in to Maundy Thursday COP.

I don't think they have 'insider information', that would look too blindingly obvious if they were accummulating at a rapid rate of knots, and would be open to scrutiny if they stay in and a bid arrives at a much higher price than the current sp. That would look too suspect imo, and this has been a tight ship to date.

Keep an open mind peeps, it's your investment and your risk, don't be guided or fooled by what others 'appear' to be doing or not doing!! Stick to your own research and strategy here, as it remains very much a 50/50 bet.

my views.

And the song 'On The Road Again' playing on a reel of Jade's tonight, "can't wait to get back on the road again" - Willie Nelson!

Nite all.

But switching off and trying not to look.

They're shorting, I said this a few days ago. It's been shorters paradise here sadly so far.

Hold tight, I've just bought more. GLA.

Now I understand all the noise aimed at me, it was the Blackrock shorting guys who used the same emojis but different handles against me on eurasia. You can look at the history of BlackRocks behaviour on there. Looks to me as though they've been shorting but keeping under the radar, just like they did there, and then they sell out and they don't care if they lose a bit on finally selling out as they've made a hell of a lot on the shorting. Seems pretty clear they were desperate during the last week to buy back shares so they could get out, so scare the weak and take their shares to exit.

When they finally left on eurasia, the share price crashed, but hopefully that won't happen here, but it does leave a bit of a bitter taste in the mouth, especially with the abuse that has been thrown about, especially at me.

The saving grace here is that we have genuine investors who have recently put quite a bit of skin in the game, so all is not lost.

Of course, the ultimate decision is down to JD. If he loves his own company so much, then surely he will find a way to buy it, even if he has to put his hand in his own pocket for the majority of the finance. I'm pretty sure next year the company would turn in a profit, and he knows it, once they've pared down, and reinvented themselves in to the market place, probably more along the lines of quality clothing like his wife has done so.

my views.

This article is old hat obviously, but it resonates still all the same, plus it makes reference to city analysts Jefferies, who seem to buying/selling here for whatever reason!

"Andrew Wade, an analyst at the stockbroker firm Jefferies, said Boohoo had “bought a lot of asset for £55m” if Debenhams’ relationships with brands were added to its expertise in beauty, homewares and sportswear."

source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/25/boohoo-buying-debenhams-a-changing-of-the-guard-in-retail

I'd been hoping we might see a hostile bid from the likes of Boohoo, but then again, may be they already have an 'agreement' with the Board for a later take out after a no bid situation from JD, if that arises? Who knows. my views.

Still holding.

Bacchusll I have no idea which way this will go, it currently remains a 50/50 for me, although there have been some large share purchases of late by Kellett etc. I see you now have it down as a 'Hold', so looks like you've switched and gone long?

This is an interesting rns issued this morning on concert party manoeuvres in another share. Begs the question of whether we would get a concert party situation here if Kempner do stump up some finance in which case they will more than likely be allotted some shares as a part of the deal I would imagine? and whether anyone else also 'declares' to be acting in concert? such as those who have recently purchased large holdings here?

see CEPS Plc

Nope it's not a U turn, still holding over 200k in shares so how can you say that's a U turn? If I had sold out completely then that would be a U turn, I'd agree, but I still hold more shares than some of you lot probably do, so to call me out and say I've done a U turn is a bit crass in the whole scheme of things. As I said end of last week, I might yet purchase some more back, and will see how the week starts to pan out.

Nope, but if there's no sign of a hostile bid from anywhere by now, then I think it comes down to whatever offer JD makes if he can finance, or the company takes on more debt, or the company goes the cva route. Hope I'm wrong and he surprises shareholders, but as time moves on, hopes begin to fade slightly. As I say, I'm hope I'm wrong, but I'm not quite feeling the love the same today for some reason, not sure why. I think I was secretly hoping Boohoo might give him a run for his money, but I think retail are finding things more challenging so far this year, and people just haven't got the money to splash around in the same way, now that interest hikes etc are really taking their toll. As I say, hope I'm wrong, I don't want anyone to lose their dosh, least of all, myself as well! Let's see what pans out tomorrow.

To COP 28 March! Will he, won't he? If he does, I'm thinking 50p offer, nothing to lose effectively with a low ball offer, otherwise the company carry on trading increasing their loan indebtedness in the short to medium term, or take it to cva! Can JD raise the funds though or if not, is he prepared to put his hands in his own pockets? 9 days time, if not before, we will definitely know how much faith he has in his beloved SuperDry right now! Best of luck folks.

"The dirty secret of the resale industry is that despite its reputation as an eco-friendly alternative to fast fashion, second-hand fashion is often subsidised by the sale of new clothing. For example, 80% of products on eBay, long seen as a second-hand success story, are new. The Swedish resale site Sellpy's expansion to new markets and investment in technology was made possible by its strategic partnership with H&M – and H&M's profits come from selling large amounts of new fast fashion.

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20240301-international-second-hand-clothing-market-profitable

Anyhow, taking a back seat here now, as I have my strategy in play.

Best wishes to Atisha and Munichmann, have enjoyed the ride with you both, and hope that we will celebrate :)