Member Info for Toby1967

E1

As always if somebody questions you you feel the need to resort to insults

You pick one out of a list and as i said in my reply generalising my point is valid

I apogise for not going through each one you listed in detail and only generalised

E1

Looking at your list and generalising the PE stated is based on risk (overseas operators have lower PE) and those with multi operations with proven reserves are at the upper end

There is no doubt until the DFS and decision to mine for Hav and a long term expansion plan for Telfer is detailed we will lag behind

Also consider given your comments on Freeport Grasberg incident (which cut their long term out globally by 50 to 70% ) and the recent Telfer tailings dam issue which if re occured would close us down 100% even though we will re-rate we may not reach the highest of PE's until we have multi operations with all our eggs in a single processing plant

Everybody seems to be assuming a single device and account

A lot of PI’s hold shares across several accounts have partners who hold shares and have several devices each can trade from so there is no doubt it is possible to do multi trades in seconds if you actually wanted to do it

I think your wrong to say shorts have been burnt

Whilst Arrowstreet are reducing their short position the overall short as detailed on ASIC site is now showing a total short position of over 3% and has been increasing

Bamps

Interesting comments

I have had the feeling since they announced the WDD that it would be ideal to run in sequence in the Hav train and it would appear SD is now thinking along those lines rather than a dedicated Hav train as originally envisaged

The original plan was to re-rate the Hav train to 6mt which never really made sense so at 4mt would be 8months operation but it maybe possible the 6mt rating is being looked at in the DFS and from your estimated 5-6 month seems to confirms this

i have said i was expecting a surprise in the DFS and if what you have picked up on is confirmed it will no longer be a surprise

E1

I’m not sure you are correct in suggesting BR drove the share price as most Aussie gold shares increased 5 to 10% that day

E1

Is it late opening on ASX as normally it is 1am BST open

Mh01 @11.51

Not sure I follow your logic as a raising gold price will surly increase the Ramelius share price so it will be other factors needed to get to their market cap

E1

I think you maths maybe a little out

On day of results price dropped to 2.55 so the rise is closer to 20%

You view is clear it was down to a hatchet job but whilst that may have played a part the results themselves played a bigger part

Howard

Fair reply and as you say subjective

Don’t dispute the fundamentals or your other thoughts in your original mail

Howard

I am not really looking to state an opinion on your mail or the one you responded to but i must ask what you consider a plummeting share price to be

When results were announced the SP dropped close to 25% in a day and has regained approx 3% in the 4 weeks since

I and i am sure many would see that as a plummeting share price and even the most loyal LTH would struggle to argue otherwise

Bamps

Just reading your email

i was answering a point raised by Speedie and others have voiced about too much gold and a third train

I have read previous posts on Hav processing plant and tailings and at one point putting tailing further away was discussed but the decision has been taken to utilize a train at Telfer as the world is not ideal

The question you pose on delay for drilling i think is actually vary valid and what i was attempting to hint at in my post and i am expecting the DFS to hold a few surprises for the better

Clearly from your posts and the road shows you attend i am sure you see a rosy future for the Telfer train going forward

Your point on blending the 2 copper concentrates is something you have detailed in the past and whilst not relevant from what we now know if there was a standalone Hav process facility that would not exclude blending which could be achieved in a number of ways and at least 3 points prior to shipping but that is moving to an area not something of concern with processing at Telfer so not really worth expanding on

Roll on the DFS

Speedy

I think as Bamps and E1 and others have been highlighting there is a lot of gold left at Telfer to be declared and with the amount of drilling i suspect the company want to establish this as quickly as possible but is there enough to last say 10 years plus to run at 20mtpa as it is likely the underground higher grades have a limit on what they can mine which i think is 6mt via the hoist but i suspect that also includes waste material they are also likely to need to remove

In an ideal world and it was my view from when i first invested a standalone plant at Hav would be first choice as it would be new and purpose designed for the ore but with Telfer as part of it now under GGP they have to balance what is best overall similar to Newcrest had too in arriving at their choice to use Telfer

A new 4 or 5mtpa plant would take 2 or 3 years to design and build subject to approvals and if they are looking to expand going forward to block cave for example on the lower grade then Telfer plant makes more sense as you other build a larger plant than needed for first 10 years or have to build a new one for bulk mining

As well as a plant they would also need to building a tailing facility at Hav but it is also likely at some point going forward additional tailing dam(s) will be required at Telfer with a 30 year mine life so either way tailing need to be stored and what is there will need upgrading (i think the work on the existing Dam takes provides capacity to 28 or 29)

If they did build a plant at Hav they will still need tailings for the paste plant so it would be likely the haul road would still be required to bring in old Telfer tailings to Hav for that purpose

Given it has now been several years since a halt was put on the decline and they have been indicating DFS was coming and GGP even as part owners would have been involved particularly after a deal was agreed and before completion and they still wanted a further year to complete it i suspect it maybe a little bit more involved than people are expecting and have a few surprises so it should be worth the wait

also to get to all the gold at Telfer will take time and cost money to develop as will Hav so we must trust the BOD to arrive at the correct decision which i think is the 2 trains at Telfer but my own feeling is we will see initially at least other ore go through the Hav train not together but in cycles to maximise production as 200 days without ore to feed it is not good in my view

Speedy

in answer to your question to Bamps subject to confirmation in the DFS train 1 they are proposing for Hav ore will be down graded to 6mtpa and initially at least will be treating 2.8mtpa so in theory we will be limited to 12.8mtpa

they are talking about increasing Hav to 4.5 to 4.8mtpa but that needs a second decline which is likely to be a few years further down the line

i think recently SD has talked about feeding at 750tph so in theory that is 156 days running on the Hav train

Train 1 will be modified to treat Hav ore but should like the current set up have flexibility so it is possible subject to suitable ore like WDD being processed through train 1 so we could end up with 16mtpa or more depending on if they maintain flexability to allow train 1 to run back up to 10mtpa with suitable ore

As train 2 i believe currently runs on low grade ore feeding more higher grade ore from underground sources may need some mods to the train as well but once they have finalised Hav DFS and have firmed up what we have at Telfer and a plan to what to mine and process it really is a guessing game but initally at least i think 500kozs would be a good starting point with Hav train and 1 Telfer train processing ore

CF

A good point the thought the shorts are betting us not being included in Sept had certainly crossed my mind

Bankboy

ASIC do not publish individual fund/company details for open shorts only a figure each day published 4 days later as a total

Bankboy

ASIC has a lower reporting limit of 0.02%

As the Primary listing is the ASX as far as i can establish the ASIC report should include all shorts but maybe somebody who has experience in cross listed shares and reporting requirements between the 2 markets can confirm this

The daily increase up to 14th on ASIC when they reported the increased short position in UK suggests they have been included but it is equally possible others also have shorts open/increased over the. same period

Bankboy

The 0.66% is the short position Arrowstreet hold as reported on 14th august

Total short position as reported on ASIC website for 14 august stands at 0.86% and has increased from 0.58% reported on 28th July the day before results

in very round numbers that is an average increase of less than 150000 share/day with 4 week average daily volume of approx 2.8m so i think the short is keeping the share where it is rather than driving it down

The short position reported for 13 Aug has increased slightly to 0.79%

With the cross listing between the 2 markets not sure if there is a common reporting requirement as clearly the Arrowstreet short position was not opened at 0.5% as LSE report and i suspect did not increase a further 0.16% on 14th Aug but cannot confirm that until tomorrow when they publish figures for 14th

Main purpose of this mail is actually to send the link as requested

https://www.asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/markets/short-selling/short-position-reports-table/

TT

The last short position in GGP reported on ASIC site shows short position of 0.74% on 12 Aug as it lags by 4 days

The highest position was 0.86% on 14/7 and it then dropped to 0.58% on both 28 and 29th July around the results

0.74% is a 0.16% increase from 28/29 July which is what is being reported for Arrowstreet on 14th August which was not a one day jump but a steady increase over the period from the ASIC reports

clearly other parties could have been opening and closing positions over the period but as it matches the 0.16% increase i suspect not although i will check in a couple of days to see what ASIC report for 14 August