Member Info for Toadhall1

at april £4.4mm receivables were unbilled! poor cash mngt

re debtors. Even at y/e the revs were 9mm and debtors 7mm.

any ideas on who the debtor might be? might indicate whether there's a good chance of getting that money.

That's helpful thanks. So they have some buffer to play with, accumulate royalty receipts in the meantime. I'll try and do a detailed cashflow forecast.

I'm waiting for entry, so watching. Haven't heard any rumours, but i'm familiar with their business model. Surely given the number of deals signed recently, this has been funded by borrowing. So in order to make new investments, equity needs to be raised to reset the debt, raise some cash and off they go again to make new investments. This provides the operational leverage to increase divs faster.

AXA is gradually withdrawing from fossil fuel investments , similar to other European insurers. Not cool to be investing in fossil fuels even though gas is desperately needed as a transition fuel ( globally), and for developing nations provides cheap reliable electricity to try and reduce the energy poverty of citizens. Not a worthy cause apparently.

This divestment is very real and of course a big driver why O&G stocks, particularly small caps are incredibly undervalued at present. The market will catch up.

So 7.5mm bought back. Wonder what’s the 14.6mm at 20p.

Anyone seen the latest analyst reports mentioned?
I subscribe to Research Tree but haven’t seen anything new posted in there. Eg the last YGEN one I see in there is from Singer from 26 Oct.

Intraday reversal started yesterday. Hopefully just PIs selling based on covid and lockdown concerns. But what we saw last year is that lockdowns don’t affect the company, so am surprised by the pullback.

Good day here. Not massive volume but maybe the broker quote is helping with the story.

Good presentation. All my questions answered. Lots of revenue streams starting to build. Covid revenues certainly not expected to suddenly dry up. New DHSC sequencing contract a quality revenue stream and playing to the company’s core strengths. Will look to leverage that profile for big pharma contracts.

Given H1 revenue run rate has continued into H2, plus new contracts, we could see further upgrades to the full year.

Ranger Tech building nicely with £1mm revenues in H1. Should continue to grow nicely in 2022 with the new US partners one of which is Labcorp who will use it in ‘one’ of their diagnostic workflows. Implication being if all goes well, they could roll out to additional workflows.

Debt facility to be arranged. Potentially use for M and A when opportunity arises.

Personally I expect the working capital to normalise and we should start to see a cash build in H2.

DPYD should continue to see country by country take up. Spain to go live soon. I expect we see more countries sign up soon.

NIPT flat in H1 but order patterns normalising in H2. Expect to see good growth next year in US and EU.

Capital markets day to be arranged after new year to try and build out the story. Not just a covid stock - 100 products and services.

Looking good here again. Should push past into the mid 200’s.

Market also knows that the true NAV of PERE is a lot lower than the value of the investment once you deduct the debt which I estimate at $9.2mm by 31st Dec. With MNTO at $17mm, that’s $8mm NAV vs Mcap $7mm. Plus add on perhaps $0.5mm dilution for options, and it’s trading at NAV.

Great news. That’s 7mm doses delivered in Q2 so far. Approx $3.5mm pretax profit boost. Going to be a record H1. 15mm more doses to go. Good chance of seeing them in H2.

Good points. Makes sense Tony. We should try and get a mention.

Agreed. I've listened to a few market calls. I3E wouldn't interest him for a number of reasons. I think he would be put off by the N Sea connection, as he is focussed on the Canada oil industry pure and simple. Aside from the N Sea connection, he is focussed on companies that are about to maximise shareholder cash returns in the next year or so rather than companies which are reinvesting in growth. That's commendable, but I3E has a lot of growth opportunities in Canada. The energy bull run is going to be multi-year. I don't see a problem with I3E going after opportunities to maximise medium term growth. I think this is better than just taking cash out the business. We've still a got a decent dividend to boot however. Also Eric makes a keen focus on his belief in management, with due respect I don't think our mngt team have got the track record in recent years gone by to impress, although they are turning that around.

Yes I think we’ll be ok. Record Q1 results. Core underlying business growing. Q2 boosted by $2mm from the vaccine. Hopefully more to follow in subsequent quarters. Acquisition completed. Vaccine development in pipeline.
Discount still around 45%.

I agree with you that Dhaka price action is looking weak, and likely GDR will track it. But I’m just saying irrespective of the price movements, current GDR SP levels can be justified by fundamentals ie it doesn’t feel expensive. Doesn’t mean it will support them though.

Agree there is a discount, but I though I am factoring in that discount by looking at where the GDR's currently trade i.e. looking at it as a standalone valuation ignoring the Ord price.

For the BDT Ords, at current price 174BDT, Mcap of 77bn BDT, and run-rate forward PAT of 4.2bnBDT, that gives P/E of 18.3.

Current SP discount is just over 50% vs historical average near 40%.

Ok I think your suggestion was what level of P/E will they bring the Ord price down to, then discounting from there.

My point is, irrespective of the movement in the Ord price movement, the current GDR pricing level seems like good value on a fundamentals basis. So is a buy from here, and any levels lower.

Interesting in-depth interview, explaining the value-add and connections used by BXP. Pretty much confirms $1 per dose imported for Bangladesh govt on the 30mm doses. Hints that this will be increased to 40mm in the short term if supplies available. Some attempt to deflect attention from the profits being made - e.g. investment and costs incurred by BXP as distributor. But contrast that to the RNS of a material impact, which I would place more reliance on.

I would expect BXP to be using existing distribution channels (believe its a connected party that provides distribution). Some profit will be taken by that distributor for sure. Not sure how much investment required by BXP. Perhaps 25% margin could be made on each dose? ~$7.5MM for 30mm?

Then layer on any additional doses this year, but almost certainly next given the 160mm population and sole distributor status. Plus doses imported for the private market which will be more lucrative.

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2021/01/25/how-did-bangladesh-get-covid-19-vaccine-so-quickly