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Language is a wonderful window into the mindset and in this case into that of an overtly negative belief which is being broadcast for the benefit of others. I note reference to ESP as in the other site, SH -13/14 , drilling pads. The similar inclusion of bit of oil industry -flavoured lingo and alleged knowledge as on the other site. One wonders - why people are getting desperate. I am still amused and impressed by the subtle approach. I miss the technical ponderings and what seemed to be innocent theories!
The reason , I again feel that it is appropriate to intervene is this insufferable negative tail-hunting to the total exclusion of the possibility of a skewed long tail on the positive side of the story/probabilistic distribution curve, by bringing in technical analysis, awkward reference to rumours from deluded quadruped cam scammers, possibility of cancellation of contract and mixing of that with some intelligent rendering. People who are invested here long term are all looking for convenient exits at the right price that is right by their own situation. Not sure, how much of a scope of strategy, appraisal and management of risk on a very frequent basis improves your chances. One can allow draw downs according to their portfolio size and to a certain percentage of it, depending on their risk threshold. They are all adults and do not need a shepherd! There is a goat theme there! GKP has come out of its worst period unless the oil market tanks again. It has income and growth potential and the host nation wants oil revenue badly. Nothing should stop people to move on if they see a better opportunity. However, I really do not see the point of pure neuroticism and angst day in and day out. Chill out and you will make decent money. Otherwise, you should know what you ought to do!
thanks, Moniman. that is what I was asking. It will be great at the right price or some kind of a merger!
thanks. Do you have the ticker symbol?
Thanks, Elrico. Appreciate all your efforts. 36 per cent margin will be impressive and very reassuring! The company CF mentioned as a competitor - Dutch? could not quite get the name. do you have any information on their valuation multiple in the context of revenue/EBIT or margin? The valuation multiple for earnings of ORPH is the other variable that Mr Market has to decide on and apply at some point.
So we got some clarity and visibility on revenue £40m -£50 m per year. Is £60 m per year going forward in 2023 - another case of exuberance. I really would have like to know about profit margin going to the bottom line. It was mentioned as 20 -30 percent and if that plays out, then 44 p is not a distant dream. Struggle to accept the furlough withdrawal angle! More bums on the seat will mean higher overhead. More clarity is required around when the revenue will be realised and how much will hit the bottom line. Good interview and a very good effort. only suggestion is to let CF explain and not to feed him with explanations or excuses and that is when it can lose credibility. But then many thanks for the video. Hopefully will rejuvenate Poolberg to life. I believe that what CF does best is deals and it is still somewhat a long game in to the spring of 2022. I am happy to wait instead of crystallising paper loss. Further spin offs - did he hint DIM around April 2022 - we will see.
I am very disappointed to notice that seemingly sensible individuals are giving too much attention to the rather intellectually challenged quadruped scam cam and also raising negative possibilities that border on black swan events. Let the case between KRG and Genel run its course. Lure of potential oil revenue will make sure that KRG and Iraq government play along nicely or at least not pursue destruction of potential wealth. GKP may not have to bother with 55k to 75 k phase. KRG has not stated that they will not pay the arrears although the regularity of payment can improve. I wonder if the angst of some all-knowing pundits and some over-leveraged weak hands and the pitiable tactics of some traders continue to repel new investors. I hope his saga comes to an end one way or another and I dare say that the outcome will not be too shabby!
I do not understand why any credence should ever be given to an information when it cannot be debated or clarified . The get out clause of the info not being in the public domain is laughable as the same reasoning should have precluded this whisper campaign through a quadruped scam cam. However, an operational update is required and the company should do that. Otherwise the welcome momentum will be lost. It is fair to say that the share price has not done badly in the context of brutal reversal of oil price.
As much as I like the enthusiasm of CF, has it come to this? We want a clear line of sight towards a £40-50 M annual revenue stream. Announcement of a small contract and attending multiple meetings of no significance does not portray a credible picture in the context of the grand promises made earlier. Since the significant money that was put in this by me is now significantly underwater, I hope by April next year we will be somewhere near the promised land. I would have liked some comment regarding spin offs and trajectory of revenue by quarter. Multiple of 6 or 8 for having a moat is a step two discussion. CF needs better advice regarding communication and platforms.
New investors we need - may be no bears or no bulls! Pleb is a tasteless word with class connotation and society has moved on. Humility, on the other hand, is a virtue that should be more manifest in those who are desperate to proclaim that they are not plebs.
New investors will ensure that the price will not drop and even rise. If you own a share or two, it will be good for you.
I really wish some LTH get some money before its time for probate! It has been a long journey and we have lost some good people. A word or two about neuroscience of bitterness of some investors - it is a dysfunctional circuitry that is etched in your Amygdala that will need intervention for easing out. Pontification from behind keyboards is not going to help with anything particularly with your physical or financial health.
In the mean time, enjoy your dividend (regular 5-7 per cent is easily affordable at current price on top of some special dividends). Draw down from here will not be much except for oil price fluctuation. GKP will be sold one way or the other and at a significantly higher price. If time and opportunity is lost, then so be it. They are lost. Bring in new investors perhaps even income investors. Have a good weekend.
I agree with theoryman that $5 per barrel is the profit oil that GKP is getting at oil price $70.
There is no need for complicated and rather fraudulent colour - be it pink or dirty grey.
The profit oil can be apportioned to some dividend and not such hefty ones that we had although I am not complaining and perhaps not bad after such a long wait and is good attractive message for new investors. We need to have new investors not just a whole bunch of bitter and all knowing lot that dominate the discussion.
Bit of the cost oil can be used to buy back shares. Quantum leaps to 75000 bopd and upwards should be on back of debt at a reasonable rate but most probably that will not concern us.
KRG will not be punishing GKP - such delays are part of geopolitical risk and that is why GKP has so many ups and downs but that is all priced in. I understand that there are lots of people who want this to come to an end soon at a realistic price. I dare say that realism is not broadly fraudulent pessimism as much as it is not high octane optimism.
It was interesting to note that the ex dividend drop in GKP price was much less than 17 p and of course the oil price had gone up. If there is no systemic glitch or malevolent explanation, then this is perhaps a sign of strength. Or is there some more fun and games! Anyway, it will be soon clear. Waiting for some updates on our slow march to 55k!
Great summary WallyJ. I think CF mentioned $1 B for the core business for the first time including possible$250 M bonds. They hinted aspirational t profit margin up from 30 percent to 40 percent. £50 M revenue/40 percent margin/cost minimised/ optimistic £20 M profit/earnings multiple of 20-30 ..still there will be bit of a gap. But it is possible with allowance for CF exuberance! Nasdaq applies high multiple to biotech stocks but generally it is higher than UK even for a pharma services company and hopefully the annual revenue will creep up with time. If the spin offs are counted in, then very significant prospect from here.
I will prefer to hear from CF rather than from an advertised site! Well done CF! Quite a bit to deliver still and I am happy to wait for that. Nasdaq /merger/3X etc sound good. It seemed that he suggested that it will not be a JV. However, I will rather want that he carefully selects his associations and platforms and not go for numerous similar presentations here, there and everywhere but focus on delivery. Overall positive and lots of potential.
Why will some one exit if they are investors, especially now?
The temptation is to sell now and buy back cheaper. It may have worked for some before as a nice serendipity or through broadly fraudulent braying and barking from self-proclaimed dogs and hounds of oil men and women.
The Fibonnaci extension of 127.2% of 277 to 46 drop is 339.93. We are still below the 76.2% level. of 222.8. We are about to break 52 weeks at a reasonably high volume. Daily 20, 50, 100, 150, 200 SMS are nicely aligned and we are in an upward trend. What is not to like. Caution is good but sometimes the intention is rather obvious with some rare exceptions. Dividend will bring a correction but generally charts do overcome dividend and thrives on trend and order flow. If we take 67 to 202 rise add 23% to that and you get 223. I am not thinking about exit but make your own call. This board has so many well-wishing cautionary voices and I love each one of them. Not! Sorry, had to intervene but each to their own. I am not a ramper but a long time holder.
Why will some one exit if they are investors, especially now?
The temptation is to sell now and buy back cheaper. It may have worked for some before as a nice serendipity or through broadly fraudulent braying and barking from self-proclaimed dogs and hounds of oil men and women.
The Fibonnaci extension of 127.2% of 277 to 46 drop is 339.93. We are still below the 76.2% level. of 222.8. We are about to break 52 weeks at a reasonably high volume. Daily 20, 50, 100, 150, 200 SMS are nicely aligned and we are in an upward trend. What is not to like. Caution is good but sometimes the intention is rather obvious with some rare exceptions. Dividend will bring a correction but generally charts do overcome dividend and thrives on trend and order flow. If we take 67 to 202 rise add 23% to that and you get 223. I am not thinking about exit but make your own call. This board has so many well-wishing cautionary voices and I love each one of them. Not! Sorry, had to intervene but each to their own. I am not a ramper but a long time holder.
Indeed! It also depends on the personal situation and what investment styles suit the risk tolerance of the investor. Risk assessment and rating has to be dynamic and even with that, the assessment can be notoriously wrong and there will be Black swan events. The nirvana of course will be to be anti fragile with a perfect portfolio! Remember BP and the oil spill. GKP had some very unfortunate turn of events too. I generally enjoy alternative or different viewpoints and debates. I agree the single country/single asset adds another dimension to the risks. The plan for me is not a home run but exit with a fair gain in the long term that reflects the time value. I suppose each have their own personal situation and there are lots of passion as some had invested heavily and feel that they will finally get some just reward for their patience. I have lot of respect for that although the rationale is perhaps more based in hope at times. However, as you say, the risk parameters can change and the risk discount can diminish and along with an established history of steady production and payments, the valuation by the market can subsequently improve significantly from here.
FYI - Stockopedia classified GKP as a turnaround stock too. In the Stockopedia taxonomy of stock market winners, Turnarounds are the stocks that are both attractively valued and have strengthening price and earnings momentum. The target price is much higher than the current price but not astronomical. I will not mention it and trigger further angst! I will stop for now and enjoy your weekends.
It was not my number! It was Goldman Sachs. You are inviting me on a trip down the memory lane. GKP shot up to 200 p in late 2010 and then went down to below 90 in early 2011 and reached back to 120-130 end of summer 2011 . I got heavily invested around that time as TK was talking about 12 billion OIP and all the oil men of the industry and the big dogs were ferociously and steadfastly optimistic. LOL. I am not an oil experts but a good friend mentioned to me that DS gave 75-80% discount due to geopolitical and development risks etc and valued GKP at 25 p. I ignored the view point of course and to be fair GKP had its fair share of bad lucks too. Anyway, I do not want to commit to a target price or part of antagonistic exchanges! The risks have improved. We have a producing asset with a steady history and data that has come with production and even payments albeit delayed but we are down just to one licence now. I am not qualified to comment on barrel numbers! We all perhaps can have a more civilised discussion on this board.