Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
That sentiment resonates with me very loudly! But the future of this company is linked with the destiny of one of the most tricky geopolitical region! GS was apportioning 75% risk when we all were seduced by TK and his grinning face at CNBC. I did not count that risk and the price of oil was going up. First cut is the deepest and it was one of my first proper, large investments and some invaluable lessons learned albeit painful.
one needs to take into equation the cost of the instrument with which you will hold or maintain a steady position in Brent as well as where you hold these in ISA, SIPS or trading account r just CFDs or Spread bet. While there is wild expectation out of GKP, there is clearly some absurdly ridiculous pessimism about GKP, particularly from new comers. I still cannot see the point of these nay sayers who wants to prove they know better or in fact are oilmen with secret high contacts or even industry insight, unless they are trading. Now that is a miserable , parasitic existence and approach to trading. If I do not like something, I get rid of them and move in. Please find a better investment and make more money, if it suits you. Hope none of these characters had an ex girlfriend or wife. God knows, how they would have dealt with them! The price from here will at least have significant upside with good dividends. The only risks are geopolitical and that it is a single asset. The complexity of the reservoir is not insurmountable and KRG values the fact that GKP has not damaged the reservoir and one day a suitable bigger player will take it over. Parameters for this suitability are complex and KRG will need time to finalise the suitable candidate. Hopefully the CEO can in the meantime look after the interest of the company and shareholders with a firm determination. We have not been particularly lucky on that front.
Just to clarify - I thanked Greend 100 - no rampers or derampers!
thanks for this. However, the problem is that margin was touted as 20-30 per cent and it seems that if it works out as 15-20 per cent only and that introduced a near 50 per cent inflation of expectation. I was convinced that 40 p with 671 million shares is safe and easy. Unfortunately , I will now have to suck up the opportunity cost here till such time when the revenue increases perhaps through expansion of capacity and the parameters are clarified regarding margin and free cash flow. It is too late to say goodbye to CF! I must say this blaming on the seller the poor functioning of the share price is childish as is the unbridled optimism. I know one should not get married to a stock but a divorce will prove too costly now in my situation!
We need a little bit more flesh on these announcements. Some of us are convinced about the prospect. But no mention of the potential revenue. Is it less than 1-2 Million or more or less. I think CEO said that he will not declare contracts less than 1 Million. This uncertainty around a ball park figure of revenue makes it difficult for the market to value the company correctly. The margin is about 20-30 percent. 6-8 times revenue claim for valuation is not good enough. We need visibility. I do not really need any more of ramping up commentaries. Opportunity cost may put off new buyers who will push the price up rather blaming individual big sellers. CEO is perhaps also best advised to not give interviews with dubious players and send around random responses and announce random time frames for outcomes. He is a good chap and done fine but credibility is easily lost.
The bit that is hilarious is when one has to put up with pedagogic assertion of a superior knowledge and expertise of individuals who have perhaps a delusion that they are a fabled oilman or investment guru of some sort and particularly so when you struggle to understand the view point in simple terms - if the share price is undervalued, very much undervalued or at par or is overvalued. GKP has been a long term investment for me and I have revised down my opinion from very undervalued to significantly undervalued. PSC earnings are different from if the company owns the rights to the oil in ground and the time limited nature of the PSC is also a factor. It does not need to be overstated. However valuation in terms of $/barrel is a reasonable approach , particularly when it comes to take over situation. Of course one can look at an intrinsic valuation by applying DCF model for future earnings. I do not have to turn up each day and announce my existence with put ups and put downs! I do not have the time and this not my speciality but fuzzy logic is not bad without being a slave of either technical or fundamental analysis in a probabilistic world. I believe the minimum vale is £2.50 after application of very generous discount (25-75% - your pick)for the geopolitical situation and the API and the single asset etc. Let us hope that 178-180 holds. There is every reason for steady climb up as we make assured progress towards increased production .
That point about dilution in the spin offs are important and was not highlighted or discussed much. All LTH will profit but it is about how soon and how much. There was too many hyped up statements from CF and the same applies to these valuations of spin offs. Mention of this company secretary and EKF is a subliminal manipulation! Although I will be very happy if it plays out as CF insisted again last night! It will work out for him with the new purchases but not so well for people who were bit spiked above 40 and will be diluted with each spin offs. Let us hope for the best!
We really need to ask him to disclose every contract win through RNS or perhaps a summative RNS for reasonable amount of contracts as they build up, particularly when the total revenue was around 20 million only. Nothing is small change for this company! We need clarification on the counting of future earning and when it will become an actual earning. Should have been more cautious. There is need to quiz bit more regarding the potential valuation of the spin-offs. Time for scrutiny of the fairly likable CF! He can hopefully perform well today with the analysts and the investors. Unnecessary hype took it from 30 to 46 too fast. The result is punters bought it higher and CF gets it cheaper. Give yourself a good salary but do not hype up please and do not be greedy about the spin-offs- that will be my message to CF. I will be holding but is more watchful and cynical of unnecessary hype that borders on deceit.
Vey disappointed. It is now difficult to trust his valuation of $1 billion including all the spin offs by the end of the year. I am heavily invested here. I ignored my general take that whenever SOMEONE RELIES ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND PLATFORMS TO BIG UP A CMPANY, THEY ARE GENERALLY NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY. What a hype and we all got caught up in it from 28p - 30 p onwards. He will off course get his cheap shares. It is all greed and lies. He should be ashamed. It will be a long weight and slow grind now.
Very strange math!
Many thanks, Scooby!
'reduce the share capital of Open Orphan, so it has distributable reserves' - can someone explain what happens to the shareholder? Distribution in species will not trigger income tax or capital gains. But does the reduction in capital will allow some shareholders to exit with cash. I hope CF is staying locked in as he has indeed promised. I will like to understand which shares will be paid up to occasion reduction in capital. Any explanation will be very helpful.
It is amazing to notice what people do to get a cheaper entry. But all is fair in love and war and investment and more so in trading! Gold bull run does not generally stop by some profit taking here and there. What follows is that POG has quite a bit to go.
Great potential for the price to go up a lot from here. I just wanted to know , if there is any accountant here, why there is such large amount of provision in the balance sheet, that inevitably has lowered the Net Asset value and, the company is on a very low P/2 multiple as a result. Looking forward to have a good day.
Dear Mikey,
I am really sorry to hear this. I was always a great admirer of your unfailing faith in GKP and dedication of your time. Let me wish you all the best. I think it is very important that we remain kind to each other in bulletin boards even if our thesis on this company differs. I know about your love for bikes. Have a good ride, dear old chap!
Many thanks Paulbowman, I live in hope. I liked your supportive response.
I think someone advised me to go to optician regarding my position size.
Did not quite get it though. Is it a boast for potential wealth but it is too early to boast about 20 million shares with a current value of zero!
I cannot see the response now but that guy is perhaps always have a rose tinted vision!
My long position is 96000 meaning if the price is 1 p that will equate to £96000 and yes that is like holding 9.6 Million shares.
I have lost 27 thousand good English pound, I think.
At this point it is all unreal and I have written this off.
However , IG explained that I am at no greater jeopardy as of today as a result of this removal from the list of held positions.
GLA
I just saw that my 96000 pounds spreadsheet long position with IG that was showing as held position at 0 value is now removed today from my positions as the company has completely been removed from CREST, I am told by IG. I am gutted and I have been a firm believer all these months! AIMS is a den of charlatans. The investment did make compete sense but has proven very costly.
Please move on if you like. Please respect people who are putting on an honest fight as there are broader questions of trust , fair play and integrity still there. It does not need any pathetic day traders fighting for pennies and to be paid for trolling!So please move on.